By Chris Clayton
DTN Ag Policy Editor
and
Emily Unglesbee
DTN Staff Reporter
WASHINGTON (DTN) -- One of the first looks at the 2018-19 crop production projects the U.S. corn crop at 14.04 billion bushels with an average yield of 174 bushels per acre.
The May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) offers the first forecasts for crop production and ending stocks for the 2018-19 marketing year.
Soybean production is projected at 4.28 billion bushels with an average yield of 48.5 bushels an acre.
For DTN's exclusive audio comments on today's reports, visit: http://listen.aghost.net/…
Crop Production: https://www.nass.usda.gov/…
World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE): http://www.usda.gov/…
CORN
Production for 2018-19 is pegged at 14.04 billion bushels with ending stocks forecast at 1.682 billion bushels, down 500 million bushels from the 2017-18 crop.
Old-crop ending stocks for corn are unchanged from the April forecast at 2.18 billion bushels.
Brazil's corn crop was pegged at 87 million metric tons, down 5 mmt from April's projection.
SOYBEANS
USDA projects the 2018-19 soybean crop at 4.28 billion bushels, down 112 million bushels from the 2017-18 crop year. Soybean new-crop ending stocks are pegged at 415 million bushels.
Old-crop ending stocks are projected at 530 million bushels, down 20 million bushels from last month's projection.
USDA bumped up Brazil's soybean production to 117 million metric tons, up 2 mmt from the April report. Argentina's production was dropped again to 39 mmt, down 1 mmt from April.
WHEAT
All winter wheat is projected at 1.19 billion bushels, down 6% from a year ago. The winter wheat yield is projected at 48.1 bushels per acre, down 2.1 bushels from last year.
Hard red winter wheat is projected at 647 million bushels, slightly above the pre-report average estimate. Hard red winter wheat production is forecast to be down 14% from last year's crop. Soft red winter wheat is projected at 315 million bushels, up 8% from a year ago. White winter wheat is projected at 229 million bushels.
ANALYSIS
The biggest semi-surprise in domestic 2017-2018 ending stocks was seen in soybeans, said DTN Senior Analyst Darin Newsom. USDA dropped its guess from April's 550 mb to 530 mb by increasing crush demand 20 mb and leaving everything else unchanged. Corn ending stocks were left unchanged at 2.182 bb, while wheat was increased slightly to 1.070 bb. "Soybeans could be viewed as neutral to bullish, corn neutral and wheat neutral to bearish," Newsom said.
"New-crop 2018-2019 U.S. ending stocks could be viewed as slightly bearish for corn, bullish for soybeans and bearish for wheat," Newsom said.
USDA's guesses on world 2017-2018 ending stocks were a mixed bag, Newsom said, with corn coming in below the average pre-report estimate, soybeans above, and wheat slightly below. Guesses for both Brazilian and Argentine production came in slightly above pre-report estimates. "These numbers could be viewed as largely neutral," Newsom said.
"2018-2019 world ending stocks guesses could be viewed as bullish for corn, bullish for soybeans and neutral to bullish for wheat," Newsom said.
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Editor's Note: Join DTN Analyst Todd Hultman at 12 p.m. CDT Thursday as he looks at USDA's "initial" estimates for the 2018-2019 crops as well as changes to old-crop supply and demand tables. To register, visit https://dtn.webex.com/….
| 2017-18 U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) |
| May | Average | High | Low | April | 2016-17 |
| Corn | 2,182 | 2,178 | 2,208 | 2,132 | 2,182 | 2,293 |
| Soybeans | 530 | 541 | 565 | 490 | 550 | 302 |
| Grain Sorghum | 29 | 30 | 32 | 28 | 29 | 33 |
| Wheat | 1,070 | 1,067 | 1,090 | 941 | 1,064 | 1,181 |
|
| 2018-19 U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) |
| May | Average | High | Low | Outlook |
| Corn | 1,682 | 1,631 | 1,907 | 1,467 | 2,272 |
| Soybeans | 415 | 549 | 715 | 336 | 460 |
| Wheat | 955 | 923 | 1,005 | 780 | 931 |
|
| 2018-19 U.S. PRODUCTION (Million Bushels) |
| May | Average | High | Low | Outlook | 2017 |
| Corn | 14,040 | 14,091 | 14,604 | 13,921 | 14,390 | 14,604 |
| Soybeans | 4,280 | 4,311 | 4,430 | 4,248 | 4,320 | 4,392 |
| 2018-19 WINTER WHEAT PRODUCTION (Billion Bushels) |
| May | Average | High | Low | Outlook | 2017-18 |
| All Wheat | 1,821 | 1,757 | 1,832 | 1,612 | 1,839 | 1,741 |
| All Winter Wheat | 1,192 | 1,180 | 1,304 | 1,062 | NA | 1,269 |
| HRW | 647 | 644 | 797 | 540 | NA | 750 |
| SRW | 315 | 306 | 330 | 218 | NA | 292 |
| White | 229 | 230 | 260 | 201 | NA | 227 |
|
| 2017-18 WORLD ENDING STOCKS (million metric tons) |
| May | Avg. | High | Low | April | 2016-17 |
| Corn | 194.85 | 195.20 | 198.00 | 192.20 | 197.78 | 230.90 |
| Soybeans | 92.16 | 90.00 | 91.00 | 88.50 | 90.80 | 96.72 |
| Wheat | 270.46 | 271.30 | 273.40 | 268.50 | 271.22 | 254.60 |
|
| 2018-19 WORLD ENDING STOCKS (million metric tons) |
| May | Avg. | High | Low | | |
| Corn | 159.15 | 182.00 | 192.50 | 148.70 | | |
| Soybeans | 86.70 | 91.10 | 97.00 | 75.50 | | |
| Wheat | 264.33 | 267.70 | 278.70 | 260.00 | | |
|
| WORLD PRODUCTION (Million Metric Tons) 2017-2018 |
| May | Avg. | High | Low | April | 2016-17 |
| Corn |
| Brazil corn | 87.0 | 88.2 | 91.0 | 83.9 | 92.0 | 98.5 |
| Argentina corn | 33.0 | 32.1 | 33.0 | 31.0 | 33.0 | 41.0 |
| Soybeans |
| Brazil soybeans | 117.0 | 116.6 | 119.0 | 115.0 | 115.0 | 114.1 |
| Argentina soybeans | 39.0 | 38.6 | 40.0 | 37.0 | 40.0 | 57.8 |
| | 2017-18 | | 2016-17 |
| Wheat | | May | Apr | | May | Apr |
| European Union | 151.58 | 151.60 | | 145.37 | 145.25 |
| FSU - 12 | 142.20 | 142.77 | | 130.09 | 130.47 |
(AG)
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