DTN Midday Grain Comments 06/29 11:12

DTN Midday Grain Comments 06/29 11:12 All Grains Higher at Midday Wheat leads firm pre-report trade and ahead of month-end. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments The U.S. stock market indices are firmer with the Dow up 275. The interest rate products are firmer. The dollar index is 75 points lower. Energies are firmer with crude up 0.80. Livestock trade is mixed with cattle leading. Precious metals are firmer with gold up 1.30. CORN Corn trade is 6 to 7 cents higher at midday with trade firming back from the poor finish yesterday in jittery pre-trade. Harvest should continue to move along in the double crop areas of Brazil with open weather continuing, while Black Sea area corn remains mostly dry into July. US weather will trend warmer in the near term with mixed rain forecasts and extreme near term heat. This seems to be behind our strength. Ethanol margins remain exceptionally strong which should boost corn usage in the near term with ethanol and unleaded slightly higher this morning. Basis has been flat to firmer in recent days with the lower board. The USDA June Planting Intentions at 11 are expected with the average acre guess to be at 88.372 million acres up from 88.026 in March, and Quarterly June 1 stocks at 5.268 billion bushels. On the September chart we remain below the 10-day, at $3.62 which is now nearby resistance, and then the 200-day at $3.88. Nearby support is the $3.50 lower Bollinger Band then the $3.46 spike low from last week. SOYBEANS Soybean trade is 4 to 7 cents higher at midday with trade squarely in the lower part of the range ahead of the report. Meal is $1 to $2 higher and oil 25 to 35 points higher. Trade concerns will continue to fuel volatility with plenty of talk on all sides, and Brazil building a buck and a quarter premium to U.S. origin with some Chinese purchases being redirected to Bangladesh and Iran. Mexico bought 130,082 metric tons on new-crop soybeans. Bean basis has remained steady to firmer, with trade likely to remain quiet in the near term as old crop exports remain slow with Brazilian values remaining strong on the anticipation of future business. Widespread rains should boost near term growth with the heat to follow, and the main reproductive season still a ways out. The average acre guess is 89.79 million acres up from 88.92 in March with stocks at 1.225 billion bushels. On the August chart support is at lower Bollinger Band at 8.30, and resistance the 10-day at $8.84. WHEAT Wheat trade is 15 to 21 cents higher with winter wheat leading at midday with trade trying to build momentum as we head towards the second half of harvest. Harvest progress for Kansas should pick up this week with the warmer and drier weather for western Kansas, and some quality concerns from recent rain. Spring wheat should see good progress with Canada remaining drier. Australia should see some improvement again. Russia remains dry in the winter wheat growing areas with early harvest yields down solidly from last year. HRW basis has remains solid ahead of the anticipated harvest protein improvement and board weakness. All wheat acres have expected to be 47.122, down from 47.339 in March, with the losses on spring wheat acres, and stocks expected to be at 1.091 billion bushels. On the September Kansas City is back below all the major moving averages with the 10-day at $4.92 the closest to the market, and $4.71 1/4 becoming support as the fresh low. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered adviser. He can be reached at [email protected] Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (BAS) Copyright 2018 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.