DTN Midday Grain Comments 07/27 12:29

DTN Midday Grain Comments 07/27 12:29 Grains Mixed at Midday Soybeans are the midday leader with mixed corn and wheat trade. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments The U.S. stock market indices are mixed with the Dow futures up 25. The interest rate products are weaker. The dollar index is 5 points lower. Energies are mostly mixed with crude down $0.30. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are mixed with gold down $1.70. CORN Corn trade is flat to a penny higher at midday with trade trying to consolidate weekly gains in quiet two sided trade so far. Cooler weather looks to hang around into the first half of next week with mixed moisture potential before more seasonal temperatures return. Ethanol margins have narrowed with the corn rally but remain positive with blender margins seeing the most pressure. Corn basis has been flat to firmer for the most part but early harvest and late old crop movement will starting working against the basis soon, and has in some areas. The USDA announced 270,000 metric tons of new crop corn sold to unknown. On the September chart futures are above the 20-day at $3.51, the next level of resistance would be the upper Bollinger band at 3.65 which we are just below overnight with the 50-day at $3.72 above that. Support is the 20-day now, with the 10-day just above that at $3.53. We did have a light gap open Wednesday night for Thursday's session, but have filled the gap, so a higher close today would be viewed as a friendly chart item. Fundamentally with a big crop expected and old crop to move, the short term fundamentals appear to be battling a friendly short term friendly chart picture here at midday. SOYBEANS Soybean trade is 4 to 8 cents higher at midday with trade trying to consolidate another solid week of gains with selling picking up on tests of the upper end of the recent range. Meal is $.50 to $1.50 higher and oil is 10 to 20 points higher. Brazil remains at a stout premium to U.S. origin, still running $2.00 or better for fall, which mostly offsets the tariffs coming forward, along with pending direct payments to farmers. Bean basis has remained steady with processors taking the lead with crush margins remaining exceptionally strong. Weather could provide more support if August weather keeps trending drier. The USDA announced 154,1000 metric tons of new crop beans sold to unknown. On the September chart the upper Bollinger Band at $8.82 which is resistance with the 50-day at 9.24 above that, with the 20-day at $8.55 still support. WHEAT Wheat trade is mixed at midday with trade pulling back from the fresh highs scored yesterday morning with overbought conditions encouraging profit taking, with the spring wheat contract still showing the most strength. Spring wheat progress will slow with the cooler weather before warmer temps should kick start harvest progress. The US spring wheat tour showed yields below expectations, while the Canadian side came in close to expected. Russian harvest continues to move along as well with yields remaining below last year's levels as they get into spring wheat harvest; although they have improved a little more as harvest expands with some problems with sprouting. Western Europe continues to see excessive heat as harvest moves forward there with relief not offered until August. HRW basis has started to waver a bit on the plains as harvest wraps up. On the September Kansas City we are back above all the major moving averages with trade with the 50-day at 5.22, and the 100-day at 5.30 which we tested this morning with the next resistance the recent high at $5.53. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered adviser. He can be reached at [email protected] Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (BAS) Copyright 2018 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.