DTN Midday Grain Comments 09/18 10:58

DTN Midday Grain Comments 09/18 10:58 Row Crops Score Fresh Lows At Midday, With Wheat Flat Midday sees row crops at fresh lows while wheat is flat to 2 cents higher. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments The U.S. stock market indices are firmer with the DOW futures up 110. The interest rate products are firmer. The dollar index is 4 higher. Energies are higher with crude up .85. Livestock trade is mixed after early pressure. Precious metals are mixed with gold down $2.50. CORN Corn trade is 4 to 5 cents lower with trade falling to fresh lows at midday with selling pressure building during the day session. Wetter near-term weather may slow harvest progress in the center of the belt later this week. Ethanol margins remain tight with futures still on the low end of the range with more plants being idled, while the blender margins remain solid. Corn basis will likely see more pressure harvest here in the near-term. The weekly progress report showed steady conditions at 68% good to excellent, and 10% poor to very poor with 93% dented, versus 86% on average, 54% mature, 18% ahead of average and 9% harvested versus 6% on average. On the December chart support is at the low at $3.42 3/4 with the 10-day at $3.60 as resistance. SOYBEANS Soybean trade is 9 to 10 cents lower with trade concerns and harvest helping to push trade into new lows. Meal is $3.50 to $4.50 lower and oil is 25 to 35 points lower. Soybean basis is expected to see more pressure as storage space will be at a premium once harvest gets rolling with rain delays possible later this week. Crush margins remain even as meal fades from the highs, with August crush and soy oil stocks coming in well below expectations. Early planting in South America is underway with conditions on the dry side going in but no major concerns expected for a while and the Brazil and Argentina currencies remaining historically cheap with the Real falling back to the lows. U.S. and Brazil offers are near parity to China, even with the tariffs, with broader Asian export interest in recent days. The second round of trade aid is being targeted for early December with further tariffs announced Monday. Weekly crop progress showed conditions down 1% to 67% good to excellent and 10% poor to very poor, 53% dropping leaves, versus 36% on average and 6% harvested versus 3% on average. On the November chart support is fresh lows at $8.13 1/2 scored this morning, with the 10-day at $8.34 and the 20-day at $8.42 noted resistance levels. WHEAT Wheat trade is flat to 2 cents higher with trade still working to build an uptrend, with trade failing to hold the overnight strength again as the row crops turned lower. The U.S. is still struggling to secure export business, but should be positioned better soon with world tenders solidly higher last week and support for domestic Russian prices. The U.S. dollar is at the bottom of the recent range. Russia will continue to work on spring wheat harvest and winter wheat planting with mixed moisture. Australia looks to have more mixed weather in the near term with longer-term dryness still an issue, as we get closer to harvest there and some frost in Western Australia. Matif Milling wheat is firmer Tuesday morning. The weekly crop progress should show winter wheat planting at 13%, 1% behind average and spring wheat harvest 97% complete versus 92% on average. Weekly export inspections were in line with recent weeks at 406,004 metric tons. On the December KC chart we have support at the lower Bollinger Band at $4.96 with resistance the 10-day at $5.17. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered adviser. He can be reached at [email protected] Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (BAS) Copyright 2018 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.