DTN Midday Grain Comments 10/09 11:32

DTN Midday Grain Comments 10/09 11:32 Corn, Beans Lower at Midday Corn and soybeans are softer at midday, with wheat flat to firmer. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments The U.S. stock market indices are firmer with the Dow futures up 10. The interest rate products are weaker this morning. The dollar index is 7 higher. Energies are mixed with crude up $0.50. Livestock trade is weaker. Precious metals are mostly higher with gold up $3.30. CORN Corn trade is 2 cents lower at midday with light selling pressure after mixed initial trade. Mixed to lower action appears to be pre-report positioning. Rains will limit harvest in the near term with a focus on how well the crop will stand during the rain event with drier weather expected next week. Ethanol futures have held just above the lows, but have struggled to build broader strength with an E15 announcement from President Trump today in Council Bluffs with ethanol futures a little lower at midday. Corn basis is expected to stay sideways to soft with wet weather limiting weakness in some areas. The weekly export inspections remained strong at 1.351 million metric tons. The weekly crop progress should reflect the slowing harvest pace and wetter near-term weather when it comes out this afternoon. The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report expectations are for corn 2018-19 carryout to come in at 1.932 billion bushels, up from 1.774 in September with yield at 181.8 BPA for production at 14.851 billion bushels, up 0.5 BPA from last month with world stocks at 159.2 million metric tons for 2018-19 vs. 157 last month. The higher September Quarterly Stocks numbers for corn and beans is expected to give us higher carry-in stocks. On the December chart support is at the $3.59 20-day with resistance at our recent high of $3.69 1/2. SOYBEANS Soybean trade is 3 to 5 cents lower at midday with trade pulling back from the fresh highs scored yesterday with an increase in trade rhetoric today. Meal is flat to $1 lower and oil is 30 to 40 points lower. Soybean basis has found some footing with the delays, although it remains abnormally wide. Crush margins remain strong even with some early-week softness with meal retaking the lead from oil in the day trade. Early planting in South America is underway with little nearby weather concerns with parts of Argentina remaining dry, and south Brazil fairly wet. The Brazilian and Argentine currencies remain historically cheap but are up solidly to start the week after the Brazilian election. The weekly export inspections were disappointing at 569,776 metric tons. The weekly crop progress should reflect the slowing pace over the past week with conditions unlikely to change. WASDE expectations are for a 860 million bushels 2018-19 domestic carryout on a yield of 53.4 BPA, up 0.6 from last month for production of 4.733 billion bushels, with world stocks up 1.4 million metric tons from last month to 109.4. On the November chart support is the 50-day at $8.61, with resistance the overnight high at $8.74 and the upper Bollinger band at $8.76 1/2. WHEAT Wheat trade is flat to 3 cents higher at midday with range-bound trade continuing with trade unable to sustain moves in either direction. The U.S. dollar remains near the upper end of the recent range with buying again to start the week as we approach 96 on the index but the rally faltered for now. World spring wheat harvest is nearing completion, while winter wheat planting is ongoing with better conditions in North America than Europe. Australia remains in the recent weather pattern. The USDA announced 120,000 metric tons of hard red wheat sold to Bangladesh. The weekly export inspections were at 423,270 tons. WASDE expectations are for carryout of 1.027 billion bushels domestically, up from 927 in September, and world numbers at 261.1 million, unchanged from last month. On the December Kansas City chart, we are just above the 10-day and 20-day at 5.18 with the lower Bollinger Band support at 5.05. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered adviser. He can be reached at [email protected] Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (BAS) Copyright 2018 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.