DTN Midday Grain Comments 11/05 11:34

DTN Midday Grain Comments 11/05 11:34 Grains Mixed at Midday Trade is mixed in slow action at midday; the trade eyes the monthly USDA report due out Thursday morning. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments The U.S. stock market indices are mixed with the Dow futures up 135 and the NASDAQ down 80. The interest rate products are firmer. The dollar index is 8 lower. Energies are mixed with crude up 0.35. Livestock trade is lower. Precious metals are lower with gold down $2. CORN Corn trade is 2 cents higher at midday which has us near the daily highs; the low overnight was down around 2 cents. Outside markets are neutral with harvest far enough along that weather is not as important to market movement any longer. Ethanol margins remain poor with the firmer corn trade and cheaper energy complex. Both both producer and blender margins have been narrowing as of late. Corn basis should find better action into next week with harvest on the home stretch but basis movement will likely be subject to where the board goes. The weekly export inspections were friendly at 1.254 million tons versus 600,000 to 900,000 metric tons expected. The weekly crop progress is expected to show harvest pace past 80% complete. Looking to Thursday the USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) is expected to have the corn yield drop to 180 bushels per acre versus 180.7 on the October report; the range of estimates is 178.2-181.4. The corn carryover is expected to come in at 1.781 billion bushels versus 1.813 on the October report; the range of expectations is wide at 1.566-2.105 billion. The world carryover estimate is at 198.3 million metric tons versus 198.2 million tons a month ago. On the December chart support is at the 10, 20, and 100-day moving averages in the $3.67-3.68 area with resistance the recent $3.78 1/2 high. SOYBEANS Soybean trade is flat to 2 cents lower at midday with soybeans continuing to hold last week's gains to start the week. Meal is $2 lower and bean oil is 20 points lower. Soybean basis could remain steady to better with wet weather slowing the end of harvest. Crush margins remain strong. The South America nearby weather forecasts look good. The Brazil ral has softened slightly this morning. The weekly export inspections were friendly at 1.229 million tons versus 800,000 to 1.1 million expected. The weekly harvest progress is expected to be in the 90% area on the report this afternoon. Looking to Thursday, the WASDE yield estimate is expected to be at 53 bushels per acre versus 53.1 on the October report. The trade is expecting the carryover to increase to 900 million bushels versus 895 on the October report; the range of estimates is 832-984 million. The world carryover is expected to be at 96.9 million metric tons versus 96.7 a month ago. On the January chart we are just above the 100-day at $8.79 with the 20-day further support at $8.73, and resistance the Friday high at $8.92. WHEAT Wheat is flat to 2 cents lower in quiet midday trade with a sideways range building. In the bigger picture oversold conditions are easing so a further positive finish would be constructive on the charts. The U.S. dollar is holding the losses from last week, albeit with a small rebound today. Australia remains in the recent weather pattern with harvest going in some areas. Planting delays will persist on the Plains in the next week with the weekly crop progress report showing planting 7%-8% behind average, and the same for emergence. The weekly export inspections were at 327,192 tons versus 350,000 to 600,000 expected. The average trade guess for the US carryover on Thursday is at 966 million bushels versus 956 last month; the range of estimates is 925-1.025. The world wheat carryover is expected to be at 275 million metric tons versus 274.9 million tons a month ago. On the December Kansas City chart we are above the 10-day moving average at $4.98, with resistance at the 20-day at $5.09. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered adviser. He can be reached at [email protected] Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (BAS) Copyright 2018 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.