DTN Midday Grain Comments 11/06 11:47

DTN Midday Grain Comments 11/06 11:47 Grains Mixed at Midday Trade is mixed at midday, market focusing on Thursday's USDA monthly report. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments The U.S. stock market indices are higher with the Dow futures up 88 and the NASDAQ down 80. The interest rate products are lower. The dollar index is 2 lower. Energies are lower with crude down $1.70. Livestock trade is mixed with cattle higher and hogs lower. Precious metals are lower with gold down $4. CORN Corn trade is a penny lower at midday in slow trade; the range has only been 2 cents. Position squaring with some light long profit taking may be what we see in between now and Thursday morning in slow trade. Crude is down around five-month lows and slipping today for Election Day, with ethanol mixed. Blending margins are tighter now and we still have a worrisome ethanol production margins scenario; that is the main demand concern most have for corn; if the grind slows. The weekly crop progress was at 76% harvested Monday afternoon, 1 percentage point behind the average; this was a little slower than expected. Looking to Thursday the monthly USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) is expected to have the corn yield drop to 180.0 bushels per acre versus 180.7 on the October report; the range of estimates is 178.2-181.4. The corn carryover is expected to come in at 1.781 billion bushels versus 1.813 on the October report; the range of expectations is wide at 1.566-2.105 billion. The world carryover estimate is at 198.3 million metric tons versus 198.2 mmt a month ago. On the December chart support is at the 10-, 20-, and 100-day moving averages in the $3.67-3.68 area with resistance the recent $3.78 1/2 high. SOYBEANS Soybean trade is 2 cents lower, meal is fractionally higher and bean oil is steady. There is limited fresh news with the market finding support on export optimism while the carryover stocks continue to weigh on the complex. The weekly progress report had harvest at 83% versus 89% on average; this was a little slower than expected. Looking to Thursday, the WASDE yield estimate is expected to be at 53 bushels per acre versus 53.1 on the October report. The trade is expecting the carryover to increase to 900 million bushels versus 895 on the October report; the range of estimates is 832-984 mb. The world carryover is expected to be at 96.9 million metric tons versus 96.7 a month ago. On the January chart support is at the 100-day at $8.78 with the 20-day further support at $8.74, and resistance at the Friday high at $8.92. WHEAT Wheat trade is 3 to 4 higher at midday; in the big picture trade is staying in a sideways trend near the low end of the range. Also in the bigger picture oversold conditions remain and could turn and surprise the market with a short covering rally that has been typical periodically in wheat. The weekly crop progress report had winter wheat plantings at 84%, 6% behind the average pace. The winter wheat conditions were at 51% good to excellent down 2% on the week and down 4% from a year ago. The average trade guess for the US carryover on Thursday is at 966 million bushels versus 956 last month; the range of estimates is 925-1.025. The world wheat carryover is expected to be at 275 million metric tons versus 274.9 mmt a month ago. On the December Kansas City chart, we are above the 10-day moving average at $4.98, with resistance at the 20-day at $5.09. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered adviser. He can be reached at [email protected] Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (BAS) Copyright 2018 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.