By Mary Kennedy
DTN Cash Grains Analyst
OMAHA (DTN) -- The domestic distillers dried grains average spot price from the 40 locations DTN contacted was $3 higher, at $164 per ton, for the week ended Dec. 20, versus one week ago. Prices ranged from unchanged to higher at the locations contacted, while California prices moved lower at the two spots listed in the table below.
DTN's weekly DDG average price continued to rise for the month in part due to tight supplies as ethanol output the past few weeks has slowed. The EIA report at midweek showed ethanol production for the week ended Dec. 14 unchanged from the previous week, but 4% lower than the same week one year ago. In addition, some plants have idled, adding to the tight inventory situation.
Based on the average of prices collected by DTN, the value of DDG relative to corn for the week ended Dec. 20 was at 122.37%. The value of DDG relative to soybean meal was at 53.30%. The cost per unit of protein for DDG was $6.07, compared to the cost per unit of protein for soybean meal at $6.48. Informa Economics noted in their weekly DDG price update, "DDG prices are at a key juncture where it is possible that livestock rations start to shift towards lower inclusion of DDGs in favor of soymeal."
In their weekly DDGS update, the U.S. Grains Council (USGC) noted, "DDGS at the U.S. Gulf are at $223/metric ton (mt) for January 2019 delivery. On average, 40-foot containers to Southeast Asian destinations were up $3/mt this week from last week. Prices for 40-foot containers to Malaysia ($250/mt) and Vietnam ($258/mt) are up $4/mt from last week's figures. Prices for other international routes are firm to slightly higher."
There have been reports of mycotoxin issues in parts of the Eastern Corn Belt and, according to merchandisers I spoke to, some areas in Michigan and Ohio that have higher DON levels are areas that are prone to higher DON corn. Plants are diligent in checking DDG samples to be sure the allowable tolerance is met before shipping to feeders; merchandisers said it has been manageable at this point.
In their 2018/2019 Corn Harvest Quality Report, USGC reported, "All but one sample, or 99.5% of samples, tested below the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) action level for aflatoxin (20 parts per billion). One-hundred percent of the samples tested below the FDA advisory level for deoxynivalenol (DON), or vomitoxin, for chicken, cattle, hogs and other animals."
| ALL PRICES SUBJECT TO CONFIRMATION | CURRENT | PREVIOUS | CHANGE |
| COMPANY | STATE | | 12/20/2018 | 12/13/2018 | |
| Bartlett and Company, Kansas City, MO (816-753-6300) | |
| Missouri | Dry | $185 | $185 | $0 |
| | Modified | $93 | $93 | $0 |
| | | | | |
| Show Me Ethanol LLC, Carrollton, MO (660-542-6493) |
| Missouri Subject | Dry | $180 | $180 | $0 |
| | Wet | $90 | $87 | $3 |
| | | | | |
| CHS, Minneapolis, MN (800-769-1066) |
| Illinois | Dry | $165 | $165 | $0 |
| Indiana | Dry | $160 | $160 | $0 |
| Iowa | Dry | $160 | $160 | $0 |
| Michigan | Dry | $155 | $155 | $0 |
| Minnesota | Dry | $160 | $160 | $0 |
| North Dakota | Dry | $170 | $170 | $0 |
| New York | Dry | $165 | $165 | $0 |
| South Dakota | Dry | $160 | $160 | $0 |
| MGP Ingredients, Atchison, KS (800-255-0302 Ext. 5253) |
| Kansas | Dry | $170 | $165 | $5 |
| POET Nutrition, Sioux Falls, SD (888-327-8799) |
| Indiana | Dry | $167 | $160 | $7 |
| Iowa OUT* | Dry* | $180 | $175 | $5 |
| Michigan | Dry | $145 | $145 | $0 |
| Minnesota | Dry | $175 | $175 | $0 |
| Missouri | Dry | $180 | $180 | $0 |
| Ohio | Dry | $160 | $158 | $2 |
| South Dakota | Dry | $165 | $165 | $0 |
| United BioEnergy, Wichita, KS (316-616-3521) |
| Kansas | Dry | $150 | $150 | $0 |
| | Wet | $60 | $60 | $0 |
| Illinois | Dry | $160 | $160 | $0 |
| Nebraska | Dry | $150 | $150 | $0 |
| | Wet | $60 | $60 | $0 |
| U.S. Commodities, Minneapolis, MN (888-293-1640) |
| Illinois | Dry | $155 | $155 | $0 |
| Indiana | Dry | $155 | $150 | $5 |
| Iowa | Dry | $170 | $160 | $10 |
| Michigan | Dry | $155 | $150 | $5 |
| Minnesota | Dry | $175 | $160 | $15 |
| Nebraska | Dry | $180 | $175 | $5 |
| New York | Dry | $180 | $160 | $20 |
| North Dakota | Dry | $180 | $165 | $15 |
| Ohio | Dry | $155 | $150 | $5 |
| South Dakota | Dry | $170 | $165 | $5 |
| Wisconsin | Dry | $150 | $145 | $5 |
| Valero Energy Corp, San Antonio Texas | (210-345-3362) |
| Indiana | Dry | $160 | $155 | $5 |
| Iowa | Dry | $150 | $150 | $0 |
| Minnesota | Dry | $160 | $160 | $0 |
| Nebraska | Dry | $160 | $155 | $5 |
| Ohio | Dry | $160 | $155 | $5 |
| South Dakota | Dry | $160 | $155 | $5 |
| California | | $225 | $228 | -$3 |
| Western Milling, Goshen, California (559-302-1074) |
| California | Dry | $228 | $232 | -$4 |
| *Prices listed per ton. |
| Weekly Average | | $164 | $161 | $3 |
| The weekly average prices above reflect only those companies DTN |
| collects spot prices from. States include: Missouri, Iowa, Nebraska, |
| Kansas, Illinois, Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, Michigan, |
| Wisconsin and Indiana. Prices for Pennsylvania, New York and |
| California are not included in the averages. |
| VALUE OF DDG VS. CORN & SOYBEAN MEAL |
| Settlement Price: | Quote Date | Bushel | Short Ton |
| Corn | 12/20/2018 | $3.7525 | $134.02 |
| Soybean Meal | 12/20/2018 | $307.70 |
| DDG Weekly Average Spot Price | $164.00 |
| DDG Value Relative to: | 12/20 | 12/13 |
| Corn | 122.37% | 120.05% |
| Soybean Meal | 53.30% | 52.03% |
| Cost Per Unit of Protein: |
| DDG | $6.07 | $5.96 |
| Soybean Meal | $6.48 | $6.51 |
| Notes: |
| Corn and soybean prices take from DTN Market Quotes. DDG price |
| represents the average spot price from Midwest companies |
| collected on Thursday afternoons. Soybean meal cost per unit |
| of protein is cost per ton divided by 47.5. DDG cost per unit |
| of protein is cost per ton divided by 27. |
Mary Kennedy can be reached at mary.kennedy@dtn.com
Follow her on Twitter @MaryCKenn
(CZ)
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