DTN Midday Grain Comments 12/31 11:32

DTN Midday Grain Comments 12/31 11:32 All Grains Lower at Midday Row crops are slightly lower at midday, wheat seeing broader selling. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments The U.S. stock market indices are firmer today with the Dow up 115. The interest rate products are weaker. The dollar index is 20 lower. Energies are weaker with crude down $0.40. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are mixed with gold up 1.50. CORN Corn trade is 2 to 3 cents lower at midday in quiet trade for the last day of 2018. Corn has started to ease oversold conditions with another positive finish needed to develop better chart momentum with that looking like it will be delayed until later in the week. Corn basis looks to be flat with the Holiday slowdown in effect along with weather slowing movement. The ethanol margins remain poor with ethanol futures edging lower this morning keeping pressure on blender margins with the weak energy complex. The weekly export inspections held up well at 913,797 metric tons. On the March chart the 20-, 50-, and 100-day moving average area of $3.79-$3.80 is resistance with support at the area of our low this past week, $3.72 1/2, and the lower Bollinger Band at $3.72. Last year March corn closed at $3.50 on December 31st, so barring major losses today, we will break our 5-year streak of lower corn prices. SOYBEANS Soybean trade is 1 to 3 cents lower at midday with light two-sided action so far with some trade optimism and growing focus on Brazilian weather. Meal is $1 to $2 lower and oil is 10 to 20 points higher. South America remains in the recent weather pattern with some dry pockets, and the start of early harvest in Brazil on going. Argentina is seeing the potential for heavy rains which could cause flood losses in the short term. Basis will provide signals on the quantity of nearby cash business getting done with flat trade this week. South American currencies remain rangebound at the lower end of the recent trade. The weekly export inspections remain soft seasonally at 677,769 metric tons. March support is the 100-day at $8.90, with trade testing the 50-day at $8.98 overnight, and the 20-day at $9.12 the next round up. WHEAT Wheat trade is 3 to 8 cents lower at midday with trade fading back to the lower end of the range today. The dollar is carving out more of a range as well with the down trend potentially supportive longer term with a lower close today needed to accelerate the process. Australian harvest will continue in the near term, while Argentina battles quality issues, forcing Brazil to look elsewhere for some imports. North American winter wheat should have snow cover on the western plains, protecting late emerging wheat. Russia has continued to export aggressively with domestic prices rising. The weekly export inspections pulled back at bit to 376,281 metric tons. On the March KC chart support is at the fresh low at $4.88 with the 20-day at $5.06 just above the market as resistance. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered adviser He can be reached at [email protected] Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (BAS) Copyright 2018 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.