DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

OMAHA (DTN) -- Retail fertilizer prices continued to climb sharply higher the second week of February 2021, according to retailers surveyed by DTN.

For the second week in a row, all eight of the major fertilizers' prices were higher by a significant amount, which DTN designates as 5% or more.

DAP and urea led the way higher. Both fertilizers were a staggering 21% more expensive compared to last month. DAP had an average price of $588 per ton, up $102, while urea was at $453/ton, up $80.

MAP was 17% more expensive, looking back to the prior month. The phosphorus fertilizer had an average price of $642/ton, up $91.

Behind MAP, was UAN28 and UAN32, which were both 16% more expensive, looking back to last month. UAN28 had an average price of $243/ton, up $33, and UAN32 $285/ton, up $38.

Anhydrous was up 10% compared to last month. The nitrogen fertilizer has an average price of $524/ton, up $50.

Starter fertilizer, 10-34-0, was up 9% looking back to last month. The average price for 10-34-0 was $512/ton, up $43.

And, finally, potash was up 7% compared to the prior month. Potash had an average price of $398/ton, up $25.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.49/lb.N, up 2 cents from last month; anhydrous $0.32/lb.N, up 1 cent; UAN28 $0.43/lb.N, unchanged; and UAN32 $0.45/lb.N, up 3 cents.

Higher fertilizer prices in 2021 is the topic of a recent paper titled "Predicting fertilizer price in 2021" by Gregg Ibendahl, agricultural economist at Kansas State University (KSU) Extension.

The purpose of the paper was to update a 2019 price prediction model for anhydrous ammonia. The author said there is a correlation between fertilizer prices and the price of corn and oil.

"Economic theory tells us that higher prices for an output will cause producers to produce more by using more of the production inputs," Ibendahl wrote. "Thus, higher corn prices lead to more nitrogen fertilizer per corn acre (i.e., increased demand for nitrogen fertilizer)."

As for what fertilizer prices will do in 2021, Ibendahl believes prices could continue to rise until at least the fall. His model predicts national anhydrous ammonia prices could reach $600 per ton before falling off some in the fall.

"This would be nearly a 50% increase over prices during the summer of 2020," he wrote.

Higher anhydrous prices will likely lead to other fertilizers also increasing in price, Ibendahl said.

To read the entire KSU paper, click on the following link: https://www.agmanager.info/….

With retail fertilizer prices moving higher over recent months, all fertilizers are now higher in price from a year ago.

Both UAN28 and UAN32 are now 3% more expensive, both potash and anhydrous are 7% higher, 10-34-0 is 11% more expensive, urea is 25% more expensive, DAP is 42% higher and MAP is 48% more expensive compared to last year.

DTN collects roughly 1,700 retail fertilizer bids from 310 retailer locations weekly. Not all fertilizer prices change each week. Prices are subject to change at any time.

DTN Pro Grains subscribers can find current retail fertilizer price in the DTN Fertilizer Index on the Fertilizer page under Farm Business.

Retail fertilizer charts dating back to 2010 are available in the DTN fertilizer segment. The charts included cost of N/lb., DAP, MAP, potash, urea, 10-34-0, anhydrous, UAN28 and UAN32.

Russ Quinn can be reached at russ.quinn@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @RussQuinnDTN

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