DTN Midday Grain Comments 03/01 10:52

DTN Midday Grain Comments 03/01 10:52 Corn, Soybean, Wheat Futures Higher at Midday Corn futures are 35 cents higher at midday Tuesday; soybean futures are 50 to 52 cents higher; wheat futures are 42 to 50 cents higher. David M. Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst MARKET SUMMARY: The U.S. stock market is weaker with the Dow 570 points lower. The U.S. Dollar Index is 70 points higher. Interest rate products are firmer. Energies are sharply higher with crude up 8.15. Livestock trade is mostly higher with hogs leading. Precious metals are firmer with gold up 30.00. CORN: Corn futures are 35 cents higher at midday with trade scoring fresh highs as fresh buying flooded into commodities overnight with wildly volatile action to continue until the geopolitical situation can show some clarity. Ethanol margins will remain tight, but demand is showing signs of picking up and March maintenance season will help reduce stocks. Trade will continue to look for further sales confirmation on the daily wire with nothing in recent days. Black Sea demand will be reoriented to the U.S. and Brazil. Basis will likely remain jumpy in the short term as well. Trade will continue watching South American weather as we head into second-crop planting and development with an OK start so far. New-crop strength in soybeans may swing acres late in the U.S. On the May contract we have support at the 20-day moving average at $6.52 with resistance likely out towards the $7.65 area if trade finishes locked limit again. SOYBEANS: Soybean futures are 50 to 52 cents higher with trade working back to the upper end of the range again with strong spread action and continued product strength with moments of softer trade Tuesday as meal has been the weaker link of the complex, although still higher. Meal is $7.50 to $8.50 higher and oil is 320 to 340 higher. Basis is expected to remain flat to weaker in the short term until futures action calms down. New-crop sales of 264,000 metric tons (mt) to China kept the daily wire active. Early harvest is underway in South America, likely to further crimp U.S. export competitiveness moving forward with shipments needing to catch up more to create any pressure, though, with weather remaining mixed. On the May soybean chart, we have resistance at the fresh high at $17.59 with trade well above the 20-day moving average at $15.95 support. WHEAT: Wheat futures are 44 to 50 cents higher with the winter wheat back to limit higher after the strong move Monday recovering from the washout, with spring wheat lagging and intramonth spreads strong until we get some signs of how the dust will settle on Black Sea movement and potential. The dollar is back near the highs as well as U.S. export competitiveness will continue to slide in dollar terms but does not have the headwinds of port disruptions with abrupt reversals likely to stay in play in the short term. Russia is aggressively booking fresh exports to countries friendly to them while other business looks to roll over to the U.S. Drier weather should persist in the short term, with second-week moisture expected to improve for the Plains with this week's warm up likely to start greening the crop up in spots. Spring wheat has weakened versus Chicago, sliding the premium to .54 on the May over $2.00 tighter than the fall highs, with KC at a 18-cent premium in mixed action. KC May chart support is the Upper Bollinger band at $9.77, which we blew past overnight with resistance hard to come by as nearby action pushes past $10.00. David Fiala can be reached at [email protected] Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (c) Copyright 2022 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.