DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

OMAHA (DTN) -- Retail fertilizer prices continue their slow price decline, according to numbers tracked by DTN for the last week of August 2022. It has now been five weeks when all eight of the major fertilizers are less expensive compared to a month ago.

Only one fertilizer price was significantly lower. DTN designates a significant move as anything 5% or greater.

DAP was 5% less expensive looking back to last month. The phosphorus fertilizer's average price was $952/ton.

The remaining seven fertilizers were just slightly lower. MAP had an average price of $1,022/ton, potash $877/ton, urea $804/ton, 10-34-0 $866/ton, anhydrous $1,364/ton, UAN28 $576/ton and UAN32 $671/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.87/lb.N, anhydrous $0.83/lb.N, UAN28 $1.03/lb.N and UAN32 $1.05/lb.N.

The Russia/Ukraine military conflict will continue to put uncertainty in the global fertilizer market in the coming months, according to the August Rabobank North American Agribusiness Review. This has resulted in price dislocations and illiquid markets, causing prices to reach real-time records in some markets since the war began.

"This uncertainty is likely to persist over the coming months," the report said.

North American growers are likely to see tight markets, with the risk that uncertainty in the global market spreads to the U.S. market. Many regions may move early to secure fertilizer supply for the upcoming season, given the potential long-term risk associated with the war.

Rabobank said there are two factors hanging over the world fertilizer market currently. One is grower demand destruction from higher prices while the other is when and how the Chinese re-enter the global export market of nitrogen and phosphates.

The risk of further prices moving higher in the North American fertilizer market is apparent during the coming months.

"Given Russia and Belarus's outsized position in the potash market, it seems likely that there is most steam in the MOP (Muriate of Potash) market," the report said. "However, we cannot discount the potential for further volatility and disruption in all macronutrients."

Despite lower prices in recent months, all fertilizers continue to be considerably higher in price than one year earlier.

MAP is 35% more expensive, both DAP and 10-34-0 are 37% higher, urea is 44% more expensive, potash is 53% higher, UAN28 is 56% more expensive, UAN32 is 60% higher and anhydrous is 82% more expensive compared to last year.

DTN gathers fertilizer price bids from agriculture retailers each week to compile the DTN Fertilizer Index. DTN first began reporting data in November 2008.

In addition to national averages, MyDTN subscribers can access the full DTN Fertilizer Index, which includes state averages, here: https://www.mydtn.com/….

Yara International announced recently it is curtailing fertilizer production in Europe due to skyrocketing natural gas prices. You can read it here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

Russ Quinn can be reached at Russ.Quinn@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @RussQuinnDTN

(c) Copyright 2022 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.