DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

OMAHA (DTN) -- Average retail fertilizer prices have begun to move noticeably lower for the fourth week of December 2022, according to sellers surveyed by DTN. Prices for all eight major fertilizers are now lower compared to last month.

Three fertilizers were significantly lower compared to last month. DTN designates a substantial move as anything 5% or more.

MAP, potash and urea were all 6% less expensive compared to last month. MAP had an average price of $909 per ton, potash $790/ton and urea $757/ton.

Potash has moved below the $800/ton level for the first time since the second week of December 2021. The price at that time was $796/ton.

The remaining five fertilizers were slightly less expensive looking back to last month. DAP had an average price of $890/ton, 10-34-0 $751/ton, anhydrous $1,360/ton, UAN28 $578/ton and UAN32 $681/ton.

DAP, meanwhile, moved below the $900/ton level for the first time since the fourth week of February 2022. That week, the price was at $879/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.82/lb.N, anhydrous $0.83/lb.N, UAN28 $1.03/lb.N and UAN32 $1.06/lb.N.

In a report titled "Better News on World Fertilizer Prices" by University of Nebraska-Lincoln (UNL) ag economic professors John Beghin and Lia Nogueira, the authors cite lower fertilizer prices in recent months have led to more affordable crop nutrients.

"In summary, while fertilizer prices remain high and uncertainty remains (energy prices, trade policies, the Ukraine-Russia war, etc.), there has been some recent good news due to declining fertilizer prices," the report said.

The report cites falling natural gas prices as part of the reason for lower fertilizer prices. Prices in Europe and the U.S. peaked in the summer and have been falling since.

The price differential for natural gas across markets creates an incentive to export from lower-price areas to higher-price areas. The infrastructure, however, to export natural gas to Europe outside of the established infrastructure for Russian supplies takes time to be established, according to the report.

To read the entire report, click on the following link: https://cap.unl.edu/….

Fertilizers are now mixed in price from one year earlier. This week, six fertilizers are lower while the other two are higher.

UAN32 is 1% higher compared to last year, while DAP is 3% more expensive. UAN28 is 1% lower, both MAP and potash are 2% less expensive, both 10-34-0 and anhydrous are 5% lower and urea is 17% less expensive looking back to a year prior.

DTN gathers fertilizer price bids from agriculture retailers each week to compile the DTN Fertilizer Index. DTN first began reporting data in November 2008.

In addition to national averages, MyDTN subscribers can access the full DTN Fertilizer Index, which includes state averages, here: https://www.mydtn.com/….

A recent poll from DTN asking if farmers have purchased fertilizer already for the 2023 growing season showed three-fourths of respondents had. You can read it here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

Russ Quinn can be reached at Russ.Quinn@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @RussQuinnDTN

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