DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

OMAHA (DTN) -- Average retail fertilizer prices moved lower again the last week of January 2023, continuing a trend that has been present since just before the beginning of the year, according to retailers surveyed by DTN.

Once again, seven of the eight major fertilizers are less expensive compared to last month. Of these seven, five were markedly lower compared to last month. DTN designates a significant move as anything 5% or more.

Leading the way lower are UAN32 and UAN28. UAN32 was 13% lower in price compared to last month and had an average price of $583 per ton. UAN28 was 10% less expensive looking back a month and had an average price of $518/ton.

UAN32 is below the $600/ton level for the first time since the fourth week of October 2021. That week the average price was $522/ton.

A trio of fertilizers are 6% less expensive compared to last month. Potash had an average price of $704/ton, urea $698/ton and anhydrous $1,223/ton.

Urea is below the $700/ton level for the first time since the first week of October 2021. That week urea's price was $653/ton.

DAP and MAP were just slightly lower in price looking back a month. DAP had an average price of $847/ton while MAP was at $862/ton.

One fertilizer was just slightly higher in price compared to a month earlier. 10-34-0 had an average price of $754/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.76/lb.N, anhydrous $0.75/lb.N, UAN28 $0.93/lb.N and UAN32 $0.91/lb.N.

In a presentation at the University of Minnesota Extension's Nitrogen Conference held in Mankato on Tuesday, Bryon Parman, North Dakota State University Extension agricultural finance specialist, spoke about the economics of fertilizers in 2023. Fertilizers, much like ag chemicals and diesel prices, peaked last year and have backed off those highs in recent months.

Fertilizer prices are no longer at the all-time highs they were, but prices are still well above the five-year average. The fertilizer market tends to rise in the spring with more demand present, so growers waiting for even lower fertilizer prices might be out of luck, he said.

"I think seasonality demand could push fertilizer prices higher as we get closer to spring," Parman said.

Parman said many factors pushed retail fertilizer prices higher the last couple of years. These factors include logistical concerns, the COVID-19 pandemic, shipping issues, fertilizer plant shutdowns overseas and trucking shortages.

He said he gets asked quite a bit when fertilizer prices will go lower. His answer is always the same.

"They will move lower at some point; we just don't know when it will be," he said.

All fertilizers are now lower compared to one year ago. DAP is 3% less expensive, MAP is 8% lower, 10-34-0 is 9% less expensive, potash is 13% lower, UAN28 is 14% less expensive, UAN32 is 17% lower, anhydrous 18% less expensive and urea is 23% lower compared to a year prior.

DTN gathers fertilizer price bids from agriculture retailers each week to compile the DTN Fertilizer Index. DTN first began reporting data in November 2008.

In addition to national averages, MyDTN subscribers can access the full DTN Fertilizer Index, which includes state averages, here: https://www.mydtn.com/….

Grain producers should consider several different factors when thinking about how to apply fertilizer to rented versus owned farmland. You can read it here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

DTN recently published a series titled "Global Fertilizer Outlook". Here are links to those articles:

To see Global Fertilizer Outlook - 1, go to:

https://www.dtnpf.com/…

To see Global Fertilizer Outlook - 2, go to:

https://www.dtnpf.com/…

To see Global Fertilizer Outlook - 3, go to:

https://www.dtnpf.com/…

Russ Quinn can be reached at Russ.Quinn@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @RussQuinnDTN

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