DTN Midday Grain Comments 02/09 10:55

DTN Midday Grain Comments 02/09 10:55 Corn, Soybean, Wheat Futures Lower at Midday Corn futures are 3 to 4 cents lower at midday Thursday; soybean futures are 5 to 7 cents lower; and wheat futures are 2 to 11 cents lower. David M. Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst MARKET SUMMARY: Corn futures are 3 to 4 cents lower at midday Thursday; soybean futures are 5 to 7 cents lower; and wheat futures are 2 to 11 cents lower. The U.S. stock market is firmer with the S&P up 7 points. The U.S. Dollar Index is 40 points lower. Interest rate products are firmer. Energies are mixed with crude off 1.20 and natural gas up .02. Livestock trade is mixed with cattle leading. Precious metals are mixed with gold down $5.00. CORN: Corn futures are 3 to 4 cents lower at midday with trade fading through nearby support with softer spread trade. On the WASDE report, domestic carryout was 1.267 billion bushels (bb) versus 1.262 bb expected with world stocks at 295.3 million metric tons (mmt) versus 294.8 mmt expected with Brazil production unchanged and Argentina production reduced by 5 mmt. Ethanol margins remain in the recent range with blender margins still seeing short-term pressure. Crop development will continue to be watched with drier weather short-term in Argentina, along with Brazil double-crop planting progress needing to catch up further. Weekly export sales were better than expected at 1.16 mmt old crop and 10,000 mt new crop. Basis has another round of softening in the central to west but remains above average. On the March chart, support is at the $6.76 20-day moving average, which we are just below at midday, with the recent high at $6.88 3/4 still stiff resistance above the market. SOYBEANS: Soybean futures are 4 to 7 cents lower at midday with firmer spread action as South American struggles to support action but there aren't big enough concerns to really drive buying so far. Meal is $4.50 to $5.50 higher and oil is 115 to 130 points lower. Weekly export sales were softer at 459,400 metric tons (mt) old crop and 185,000 mt new; meal was 181,700 old, 900 new; and oil at 1,900. On the report, we saw domestic carryout rise to 225 million bushels (mb) versus 211 mb expected, while world stocks were at 102.0 mmt versus 102.1 mmt expected with Brazil production unchanged and Argentina 4.5 mmt lower. Trade will be looking for the Brazil export pace to pick up soon as harvest expands, but it remains slower than usual amid showers to the north, while Argentina will be watched for further deterioration short-term, along with Southern Brazil keeping support under the market. New crop is losing ground to corn again Thursday. Basis remains mostly sideways near-term. March chart support is at the $15.19 20-day moving average, which we are just below at midday, with the Upper Bollinger Band at $15.48. WHEAT: Wheat futures are 2 to 11 cents lower with Chicago action leading again with mixed spread action with all three contracts just off the upper end of the recent ranges as we consolidate further. The Southern Plains will stay fairly warm for February with the more significant precipitation remaining to the east with more potential the second week while the west continues to struggle, with little change to the Black Sea short-term. Matif wheat values are a bit softer Thursday as well. On the report, domestic carryout was 568 mb versus 578 mb expected with world stocks at 269.3 mmt with 268.5 mmt expected. Weekly export sales were a bit disappointing at 131,400 mt of old crop and 19,500 mt of new. On the chart, KC March has support at the 20-day moving average at $8.61, which we are solidly above, with the recent high at $8.95 as resistance with the Upper Bollinger Band at $8.98. David Fiala can be reached at [email protected] Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (c) Copyright 2023 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.