DTN Midday Grain Comments 02/23 10:57

DTN Midday Grain Comments 02/23 10:57 Corn and Soybean Futures Down Midday Thursday Corn trade is 4 to 5 cents lower, beans are 4 to 6 cents lower, and wheat trade is 8 cents lower to 5 cents higher. David M. Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst MARKET SUMMARY: Corn trade is 4 to 5 cents lower, beans are 4 to 6 cents lower, and wheat trade is 8 cents lower to 5 cents higher. The U.S. stock market is weaker with the S&P off 5 points. The U.S. Dollar Index is 0.06 higher. Interest rate products are firmer. Energies are mostly higher with crude up $1.30 and natural gas up $0.07. Livestock trade is mixed with cattle leading. Precious metals are weaker with gold off $14.00. CORN: Corn trade is 4 to 5 cents lower at midday Thursday with trade pressing into fresh lows as spread trade softens, with bullish news remaining limited. Ethanol margins remain rangebound with a little support coming soon from spring unleaded blends with the weekly report showing production edging higher by 15,000 barrels per day, while stocks rose by 249,000 barrels. Crop development will continue to be slowed in Brazil with double-crop planting lagging and delays likely to continue as rains fall, while Argentina continues to struggle to finish as the recent pattern continues. The Outlook forum pegged new crop acres at 91.0 million with 181.5 bushel-per-acre (bpa) yield, which would grow stocks if realized. The daily export wire will need to show life again this week with nothing so far this week. Basis continues to stay flat. On the March chart, resistance is at the $6.78 20-day moving average, which we have faded from again with the lower Bollinger Band at $6.71 below that serving as further support, which we are just below at midday, with the upper Bollinger Band just above the market at $6.86 as the range remains tight. SOYBEANS: Soybeans is 4 to 6 cents lower with trade fading off the upper end of the range amid the general ag weakness Thursday, with South America continuing to keep support under action and little other fresh news. Meal is $1.50 to $2.50 lower and oil is 0.45 cent to 0.55 cent lower. The daily export wire will be watched with export season winding down. Trade will be looking for the Brazil export pace to extend the strong recent movement, but harvest pace will remain off the average pace short term, with Argentina drier and warmer short term. The USDA outlook forum pegged bean acres at 87.5 million with yield at 52.0 bpa. New crop continues to struggle to move closer to swinging acres from corn with some progress to start the week. Basis remains mostly sideways near term. March chart support is at the $15.29 20-day, which we bounced back from again Thursday, with the upper Bollinger Band at $15.52, which we tested Wednesday with a new high at $15.55 1/2. WHEAT: Wheat trade is 8 cents lower to 5 cents higher with Chicago action leading at midday as the spreads reset from recent highs, while the intramonth spreads ease a bit as we fade back to the middle of the recent range overall. The KC wheat areas will see some moisture to the east with cold shot through Friday while the SRW should see better rains with another moisture chance over the weekend for the eastern plains, with some showers working into the Black Sea areas as well. Matif wheat values have rebounded a bit Friday with overall decent continental conditions. The outlook forum put wheat acres at 49.5 million with yield at 49.2 bpa. The strong dollar will likely limit upside if sustained as we hold at the upper end of the recent range. On the chart, KC March has resistance at the 20-day moving average at $8.87, which we slipped back below Thursday, with the lower Bollinger Band at $8.58 below, which we are a nickel above at midday. David Fiala can be reached at [email protected] Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (c) Copyright 2023 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.