DTN Midday Grain Comments 03/09 10:55

DTN Midday Grain Comments 03/09 10:55 Corn, Soybean, Wheat Futures Lower at Midday Corn futures are 8 to 10 cents lower at midday Thursday; soybean futures are 11 to 13 cents lower; wheat futures are 11 to 18 cents lower. David M. Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst MARKET SUMMARY: Corn futures are 8 to 10 cents lower at midday Thursday; soybean futures are 11 to 13 cents lower; wheat futures are 11 to 18 cents lower. The U.S. stock market is firmer with the S&P 5 higher. The U.S. Dollar Index is 35 points lower. Interest rate products are mixed. Energies are mixed with crude up .75 and natural gas unchanged. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are firmer with gold up $13.50. CORN: Corn futures are 8 to 10 cents lower with flat to weaker spread action as we wash to new lows after giving back early strength. On the report, domestic carryout came in at 1.342 billion bushels (bb) versus 1.305 bb expected, and 1.267 bb last month, with Argentina production cut by 7.0 million metric tons (mmt), and world stocks 1.2 mmt higher. Ethanol margins remain rangebound to firmer with spring demand phasing in and natural gas staying cheaper along with corn pullback. Crop development will continue to be watched in Brazil with little change to the pattern in recent days as double-crop corn planting winds down amid still wet conditions and delays while Argentina continues to struggle with potential rains next week unlikely to make a material difference. Weekly export sales were improved at 1.41 mmt of old crop, and 113,200 metric tons (mt) of new crop. Basis has shown pockets of strength. On the May chart, support is the fresh low at $6.15 1/4 with the lower Bollinger Band back below the market at $6.11, and the 20-day moving average well above the market at $6.55. SOYBEANS: Soybean futures are 11 to 13 cents lower at midday with trade giving back early strength amid broad weakness again as product values retreat. Meal is flat to $1.00 lower and oil is 65 to 75 points lower. On the report, trade saw domestic carryout at 210 million bushels (mb) versus 221 mb expected and 225 mb last month, with world stocks down 2.0 mb as Argentina production was reduced by 8.0 mb. The daily export wire showed 184,000 mt sold to unknown destinations, which broke our three-week daily sale drought. Weekly sales were mixed with old-crop beans at -23,200 mt, new crop at 172,300 mt, 319,800 of old meal, 110,000 of new, and 7,300 of oil. Trade will be looking for the Brazil export pace to extend the strong recent movement with harvest pace catching up amid still challenging showers, with Argentina drier and warmer short term for the most part with the recent pattern continuing. New crop is consolidating recent gains versus corn, but not enough to change acres much yet. Basis remains mostly sideways to soft near term. May chart resistance is at the $15.20 20-day moving average, which we tested and faded from again Thursday with the upper Bollinger Band at $15.48 as further resistance, with the Lower Bollinger Band at $14.91, which below that as support. WHEAT: Wheat futures are 11 to 18 cents lower with early strength collapsing to new lows again with spread action remaining mixed and oversold conditions deepening. The KC wheat areas look to remain on the shorter end of moisture over the next couple of weeks with SRW seeing plenty of moisture, with the Northern Plains mixed to drier heading towards planting. World wheat weather remains mixed into spring as well with recent dryness in China. On the report, domestic carryout was unchanged at 568 mb versus 573 mb expected and world stocks slipped by 2.1 mmt. Matif wheat values are soft, helping to keep pressure in place with expectations of no changes to the grain corridor as the renewal comes due next week. The strong dollar will continue to limit upside with trade fading just a little from the upper end of the range. Weekly export sales were in line with recent weeks at 266,700 mt of old crop, and 70,000 mt of new. On the chart, KC May has the lower Bollinger band at $7.76 and a fresh low scored at $7.82 3/4 as support, while the 20-day moving average remains well above the market at $8.47. David Fiala can be reached at [email protected] Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (c) Copyright 2023 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.