DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

OMAHA (DTN) -- Most retail fertilizer prices continued to shift lower the third week of April 2023, according to retailers tracked by DTN. However, for the first time in several months, multiple fertilizers were slightly higher.

One fertilizer achieved a significant milestone that has not been seen in about a year and a half.

Six of the eight major fertilizer prices were lower compared to last month, although none fell a considerable amount. DTN designates a significant move as anything 5% or more.

These six fertilizers were all just slightly lower compared to last month. Potash had an average price of $643 per ton, urea $626/ton, 10-34-0 $740/ton, anhydrous $995/ton, UAN28 $423/ton and UAN32 $507/ton.

Multiple fertilizers were higher in price for the first time since the fourth week of November 2022. DAP and MAP were both up just slightly with DAP having an average price of $826/ton while MAP is at $812/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was $0.68/lb.N, anhydrous $0.61/lb.N, UAN28 $0.76/lb.N and UAN32 $0.79/lb.N.

The notable milestone in last week's prices was set by anhydrous, with an average price of $995/ton. This marks the first time the nitrogen fertilizer has been under $1,000/ton since the fourth week of October 2021 when the price was at $982/ton.

Anhydrous had a four-digit price for 77 consecutive weeks or just short of 20 straight months. The highest price the fertilizer saw during this time was $1,534/ton for the third and fourth week of April 2022.

While the sub-$1,000/ton anhydrous price is still historically expensive, the fact anhydrous, as well as other fertilizers' prices, fell so much in the first quarter of 2023 was striking. I interviewed several fertilizer analysts in late November and early December of 2022 and not a single one thought that by planting time in spring 2023 retail fertilizer prices would be 18% to 35% less expensive from last year at this same time.

A recent Twitter thread between farmers discussed how sitting on your hands and doing nothing in terms of locking in fertilizer prices this winter turned out to be the correct move to obtain lower-priced fertilizer prices. Some debate ensued -- as it always does on social media.

All fertilizers are now double digits lower compared to one year ago. 10-34-0 is 18% less expensive, DAP is 21% lower, MAP is 25% less expensive, potash is 27% lower, UAN32 is 31% less expensive, UAN28 is 33% lower, anhydrous is 35% less expensive and urea is 38% lower compared to a year prior.

DTN gathers fertilizer price bids from agriculture retailers each week to compile the DTN Fertilizer Index. DTN first began reporting data in November 2008.

In addition to national averages, MyDTN subscribers can access the full DTN Fertilizer Index, which includes state averages, here: https://www.mydtn.com/….

Fertilizer prices continue to weaken, but they may be near the bottom, according to a recent report from CoBank. You can read it here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

Russ Quinn can be reached at Russ.Quinn@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @RussQuinnDTN

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