DTN Midday Grain Comments 05/09 10:57

DTN Midday Grain Comments 05/09 10:57 Corn, Soybean, Wheat Futures Lower at Midday Corn futures are 14 to 16 cents lower at midday Tuesday; soybean futures are 20 to 22 cents lower; wheat futures are 6 to 20 cents lower. David M. Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst MARKET SUMMARY: Corn futures are 14 to 16 cents lower at midday Tuesday; soybean futures are 20 to 22 cents lower; wheat futures are 6 to 20 cents lower. The U.S. stock market is weaker with the S&P off 15 points. The U.S. Dollar Index is 30 points higher. Interest rate products are firmer. Energies are weaker with crude off 1.05 and natural gas off .02. Livestock trade is mixed with feeder cattle leading. Precious metals are weaker with gold off $1.40. CORN: Corn futures are 14 to 16 cents lower at midday with trade pulling back from recent highs with flat spread action and risk-off trade returning as China canceled 272,000 metric tons (mt) of old-crop corn purchases, and short-term weather is mostly good. Ethanol margins will likely remain rangebound in the short term with unleaded needing to extend gains to boost blender margins again. Basis is expected to remain sideways in the short term. The second crop in Brazil continues to make good progress and develop cheaper summer offers with short-term weather threats limited. Planting should continue to move forward at a good clip, except for the north with weekly progress showing planting at 49% versus 42% on average and emergence at 12% versus 11% on average. On the July chart we are solidly above the lower Bollinger band at $5.65, with the fresh low at $5.69 just above that while $6.00 will be the first resistance area which we faded from Tuesday. SOYBEANS: Soybean futures are 20 to 22 cents lower with meal leading the product complex lower with overall rangebound action continuing with China soybean import pace slower than expected last month. Meal is $6.50 to $7.50 lower and oil is 80 to 90 points lower. Basis has generally remained solid in the short term with farmer movement likely to remain slow for fieldwork. New-crop soybeans have given back the early week gains with late acre switching unlikely as planting was pegged at 36% complete versus 21% on average, and 9% emerged versus 4% on average. July chart support is the $13.80 year low with the lower Bollinger Band as support at $13.87, with the 20-day moving average just above the market at $14.42. WHEAT: Wheat futures are 6 to 20 cents lower with KC action leading while Chicago remains a drag on the complex as spreads continue to widen between classes with KC now at a $2.00 premium to Chicago. Further rains are expected for the Plains, which may accelerate the transition of failing wheat acres into other crops but can help the better ground finish, while spring wheat planting should pick up overall with good moisture to start. The dollar remains at the lower end of the range and Matif wheat continues to slide, limiting Chicago upside in the short term. On the world front, little has changed in the Northern Hemisphere and stable weather for continental Europe except dryness for Spain. Weekly crop progress showed winter wheat 38% headed versus 35% on average with 44% poor to very poor, up 2%, and good to excellent at 29%, up 1%, with Kansas 68% poor to very poor. Spring wheat was 24% planted versus 36% on average, and 5% emerged versus 11% on average. On the KC July Chart, the 20-day moving average is support at $8.16 with $8.60 the next level of resistance, which we have tested Monday before fading. David Fiala can be reached at [email protected] Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (c) Copyright 2023 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.