DTN Midday Grain Comments 05/11 10:54

DTN Midday Grain Comments 05/11 10:54 Corn, Wheat Futures Lower at Midday; Soybeans Mixed Corn futures are 6 to 10 cents lower at midday Thursday; soybean futures are 1 cent lower to 5 cents higher; wheat futures are 11 to 13 cents lower. David M. Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst MARKET SUMMARY: Corn futures are 6 to 10 cents lower at midday Thursday; soybean futures are 1 cent lower to 5 cents higher; wheat futures are 11 to 13 cents lower. The U.S. stock market is mixed with the S&P off 12 points. The U.S. Dollar Index is 60 points higher. Interest rate products are firmer. Energies are mixed with crude off 1.00 and natural gas up .06. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are weaker with gold off $12.00. CORN: Corn futures are 6 to 10 cents lower at midday with softer spread action and risk-off action overall as we head toward the May WASDE report Friday. The WASDE report with new-crop numbers for the first time this year is expected to show old-crop carryout at 1.366 billion bushels (bb) on old crop, and 2.044 bb on new with production at 15.120 bb on a 180.7 bushels per acre (bpa) trendline yield. World numbers are expected to remain in line with last month. Ethanol margins remain rangebound with blender margins seeing pressure from unleaded staying at the lower end of the range. Weekly export sales remained soft at 257,300 metric tons (mt) old crop and 83,100 mt new. Basis has shown pockets of firming in the west again. The second crop in Brazil continues to make good progress and develop cheaper summer offers with short-term weather threats limited. Planting progress should remain good in the short term with most questions in the northern areas of the belt for now with warmer temps boosting emergence with drier and cooler weather expected into next week. On the July chart we are solidly above the lower Bollinger band at $5.62, with the fresh low at $5.69 just above that while $6.00 will be the first resistance area, which we faded from Monday. SOYBEANS: Soybean futures are 1 cent lower to 5 cents higher with spread action firming as meal turned higher during the day session to pull action back off the low. Meal is $7.50 to $8.50 higher and oil is flat to 10 points higher. On the WASDE report coming Friday, old-crop carryout is expected to be at 212 million metric tons (mmt), with new-crop at 293 mmt with production at 4.494 bb and trendline yield at 51.8 bpa. World stocks are expected to remain flat from last month. Weekly export sales were soft seasonally at 62,200 mt old crop and 50,100 mt new crop with meal at 277,800 mt old and -11,000 new; 300 of oil. Basis has generally remained solid in the short term with farmer movement likely to remain slow for fieldwork. New-crop soybeans continue to lag as late-acre switching possibilities due to weather diminish with planting progress likely to remain solid in the short term. July chart support is the $13.80 year low with the lower Bollinger Band as support at $13.87, with the 20-day moving average above the market at $14.38. WHEAT: Wheat futures are 11 to 13 cents lower at midday with trade chopping just below the recent highs with steady spread action after rains fell again on some the driest areas of the Plains, albeit still late in the game to significantly change production. Spring wheat areas should see better progress into next week with good moisture to start. The WASDE report is expected to show old-crop carryout at 602 mb and new crop at 604 mb with all wheat production at 1.789 bb. World stocks are expected to remain flat with last month. The dollar remains at the lower end of the range and Matif wheat remains at the lower end of the range, limiting Chicago upside in the short term. Weekly export sales are shifting to new crop at 26,300 mt of old crop, and 333,600 mt of new. On the world front, little has changed with Northern Hemisphere weather short term and the Ukraine Grain Corridor still expected to go by the wayside next week. On the KC July Chart, the 20-day moving average is support at $8.17 with $8.63 3/4 the next level of resistance, which is the fresh high for the move. David Fiala can be reached at [email protected] Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (c) Copyright 2023 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.