DTN Midday Grain Comments 05/12 10:47

DTN Midday Grain Comments 05/12 10:47 Corn, Soybean Futures Lower at Midday; Wheat Flat-Higher Corn futures are 4 to 5 cents lower at midday Friday; soybean futures are 6 to 12 cents lower; wheat futures are flat to 8 cents higher. David M. Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst MARKET SUMMARY: Corn futures are 4 to 5 cents lower at midday Friday; soybean futures are 6 to 12 cents lower; wheat futures are flat to 8 cents higher. The U.S. stock market is weaker with the S&P off 15 points. The U.S. Dollar Index is 50 points higher. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are mixed with crude unchanged and natural gas up .02. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are weaker with gold off $4.00. CORN: Corn futures are 4 to 5 cents lower with fresh lows for the December contract being scored with continued selling ahead of the WASDE report at 11 a.m. CDT, with outside market pressuring and position squaring. USDA's new-crop numbers will be in WASDE for the first time this year. The report is expected to show old-crop carryout at 1.366 billion bushels (bb) and 2.044 bb on new, with production at 15.120 bb on a 180.7 bushels per acre (bpa) trendline yield. World numbers are expected to remain in line with last month. Basis has shown pockets of firming in the west again. The second crop in Brazil continues to make good progress and develop cheaper summer offers with short-term weather threats limited. Planting progress should remain good in the short term with most questions in the northern areas of the Corn Belt for now with warmer temps boosting emergence and drier and cooler weather expected into next week. On the July chart we continue to have support at $5.69 as the recent low while the 20-day moving average looms above the market at $6.01. SOYBEANS: Soybean futures are 6 to 12 cents lower with early buying fading and trade back to the lower end of the range as meal strength isn't enough to sustain buying. Meal is $1.50 to $2.50 higher and oil is 60 to 70 points higher. On the WASDE report, old-crop carryout is expected to be 212 million metric tons (mmt), with new crop at 293 mmt and production at 4.494 bbb and trendline yield at 51.8 bpa. World stocks are expected to remain flat from last month. Basis has generally remained solid in the short term with farmer movement likely to remain slow for fieldwork. New-crop soybeans continue to lag as late acre switching possibilities due to weather diminish with planting progress likely to remain solid in the short term. July chart support is the $13.80 year low with the lower Bollinger Band as further support at $13.77 and the 20-day moving average above the market at $14.32. WHEAT: Wheat futures are flat to 8 cents higher with KC leading even as better rains again hit Kansas with stronger spread action as we consolidate the upper end of the range ahead of the report with fresh week highs scored before fading, along with continued uncertainty about Black Sea shipping coming forward. Spring wheat areas should see better progress into next week with good moisture to add emergence with cooler weather potentially keeping some rain in the picture. The WASDE report is expected to show old-crop carryout at 602 mb and new crop at 604 mb with all wheat production at 1.789 bb. World stocks are expected to remain flat with last month. The dollar remains at the lower end of the range even with midweek gains and Matif wheat has firmed a little off the lows to support Chicago action. On the KC July chart, the 20-day moving average is support at $8.18 with $8.66 1/4 the next level of resistance, which is the fresh high for the move from earlier in the week with the Upper Bollinger Band at $8.96 above that. David Fiala can be reached at [email protected] Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (c) Copyright 2023 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.