The 2023 June Stocks and Acreage report from the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) was a double shocker, with soybean acres sharply lower than trade expectations and corn acres sharply higher. Following the release of the USDA reports, November soybean futures soared on planted acres that were 4 million below the March intentions.
CORN
Regarding June 1 stocks, Dow Jones' pre-report estimates looking for 4.261 billion bushels (bb), but the actual number came in at 4.106 bb -- the lowest since 2013-14. That was down nearly 6% from a year ago, or 243 million bushels (mb). The March-May disappearance figured to be 3.29 bb compared to 3.45 bb last year. The stocks report was slightly bullish for corn, with the higher-than-expected usage likely offsetting some of the lost export demand. Corn feed and residual will likely be revised higher, by more than 150 mb. Of the total stocks, on-farm were 2.22 bb, 5% higher than last year, while off-farm stocks were down 15% at 1.89 bb.
The big surprise came on the planted acreage number. The average trade estimate by Dow Jones was 91.8 million acres -- down less than 200 million from the March intentions. Instead, corn planting rose to a much greater-than-expected 94.1 million acres -- 2.1 million acres higher than March. Some notable state changes were Texas up 22%, Louisiana up 14%, Illinois up 4.5%, North Dakota up nearly 7% and South Dakota up just over 5%.
December corn, which was trading up 4 cents prior to the report release, plunged to a loss of 33 3/4 cents at the close, at $4.94 3/4.
SOYBEANS
Soybean stocks were expected to fall from last year to what the Dow Jones pre-report survey pegged at 808 mb. Instead, June 1 stocks were only 796 mb. That figured to be 172 mb lower than last year, likely hinting that NASS had overstated last year's soybean crop. The March-May disappearance was 891 mb compared to 846 mb one year ago. Of the total stocks, on-farm stocks were 323 mb, down 3%, while off-farm stocks were 473 mb, down a hefty 26% from a year ago and certainly not totally shocking based on the old-new crop inverse in the market. The stocks report was moderately bullish for soybeans.
It is on the planting end where the huge surprise occurred. Planted acreage was reported to be just 83.5 million acres -- more than 4 million acres below both the March estimate and last year's final planted acres. Traders were looking for 87.66 million acres. The net effect of this change could be to cut production by as much as 200 mb. Some notable changes were Wisconsin, down almost 9%, Illinois down 7.4%, Missouri close to 7%, and North Dakota down a whopping 13.7%.
Prior to the report, November beans were trading 25 to 26 cents higher, so some expected a bullish number. However, I don't think there was anyone who thought that soy planting would be down this much. November beans rose close to 85 cents at the high point and finished with a daily gain of 77 1/2 cents per bushel, closing at $13.43 1/4.
WHEAT
The Dow Jones estimate put June 1 all wheat stocks at 611 mb. The actual number was 31 mb less than that, at 580 mb. That was down 118 mb from a year ago, 21 mb lower than what USDA had been carrying, and the lowest in 15 years. Feed and residual figured about 27 mb higher than USDA's 50 mb. The stocks report was slightly bullish for wheat. March-May disappearance figured to be 366 mb, and that was up 11% from last year. On-farm stocks were 124 mb and up 34% from a year ago, while off-farm stocks fell 25% from last year, at 456 mb.
On the acreage side, there were few major surprises for wheat. Total wheat acres, at 49.6 million, were almost right on with the estimate, and down nearly 255,000 acres from March intentions, but 3.86 million acres more than in 2022. Winter wheat acres were 3.7 million and 300,000 less than traders had expected, with spring wheat at 11.1 million, just over 600,000 acres more than the average trade estimate. North Dakota increased spring wheat planting by 400,000 acres. On a by-class breakdown, hard red winter figured 25.7 million acres, soft red was 7.66 million, while white winter wheat was 3.68 million.
Wheat futures had a mixed reaction, with Kansas City September finishing 27 cents lower than the high at unchanged, while both Chicago and Minneapolis wheat finished with losses of 16 1/2 and 12 cents, respectively, no doubt seeing some of that weakness spillover from corn.
FINAL THOUGHTS
As they often do, USDA and NASS surprised us with some acreage numbers that few saw coming. In fact, prior to the report, there seemed to be more talk that there may be more soy acres and fewer corn acres due to early delays in the Northern Plains. The lower stocks number was not a surprise for soybeans, based on the stout basis and market inverses. The revised planted acres number makes a market that was already tight even tighter, as soybeans need to rise to encourage more acres to satisfy the growth in renewable biodiesel that is expected in the future. The added corn acres will be somewhat offset by the lower stocks and the potential for yield to fall from the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates' (WASDE) lofty level if that rain does not come in time. It is likely that the market will also now revert to weather as the major issue, as drought has expanded even more, and the forecast rain is needed even more now. Wheat and soybean stocks will likely remain historically very tight.
Dana Mantini can be reached at dana.mantini@dtn.com
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