DTN Midday Grain Comments 07/13 10:49

DTN Midday Grain Comments 07/13 10:49 Corn, Soybean Futures Higher at Midday; Wheat Mixed Corn futures are 9 to 10 cents higher at midday Thursday; soybean futures are 24 to 26 cents higher; wheat futures are 1 cent lower to 9 cents higher. David M. Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst MARKET SUMMARY: Corn futures are 9 to 10 cents higher at midday Thursday; soybean futures are 24 to 26 cents higher; wheat futures are 1 cent lower to 9 cents higher. The U.S. stock market is firmer with the S&P up 22. The U.S. Dollar Index is 50 points lower. Interest rate products are firmer. Energies are mixed with crude .75 higher and natural gas off .05. Livestock trade is mixed with cattle lower. Precious metals are firmer with gold up 4.00. CORN: Corn futures are 9 to 10 cents higher at midday with support from soybeans rebounding as we work to consolidate the lower end of the range further with a fresh low scored again overnight before trade turned back higher. Short-term weather has the broad rains slowing down a bit with warmer but not excessive temps for most. On the report trade saw old-crop carryout at 1.402 billion bushels (bb) versus 1.452 bb last month, new crop was 2.262 bb versus 2.257 bb last month with yield down from 181.5 bushels per acre (bpa) to 177.5 bpa with world stocks flat month-on-month as well. Ethanol margins should remain solid in the short term with unleaded near the recent highs to support blenders while corn works in the lower end of the range. Weekly export sales improved at 468,400 metric tons (mt) old crop and 470,800 mt new. Basis should hold up with the futures pullback in the short term. The second crop in Brazil will continue to see harvest push forward, helping world availability with some rains to slow harvest. On the December chart we have support at the recent low of $4.81 scored overnight, while the 20-day moving average is well above the market at $5.41. SOYBEANS: Soybean futures are 24 to 26 cents higher at midday with broad product strength helping action rebound into the middle of the week's range after the pullback Wednesday, post report. Meal is 6.00 to 7.00 higher and oil is 120 to 130 points higher. On the report, yield was unchanged at 52.0 bpa with old-crop stocks at 255 mb versus 230 mb last month, and new crop at 300 mb versus 350 mb last month with downward demand revision with world stocks slightly higher on old and slightly lower on new. The daily export wire reported 315,704 mt of new-crop soybeans sold to Mexico. Weekly export sales were soft at 80,600 mt old crop; 209,200 mt new crop; meal at 54,500 old and 118,100 new; and 1,200 of oil. Basis should remain mostly steady in the short term. Trade will be watching the extended forecasts into August to see how conditions may be during podfilling. November chart resistance is the Upper Bollinger Band at $13.94 with the 20-day moving average at $13.24, just below the market. WHEAT: Wheat futures are 1 cent lower to 9 cents higher with spring wheat working to lead as crop stress is expected to continue in the short term with winter wheat harvest still likely to be slow with a little negative hangover from the report. On the report, old-crop carryout was 592 mb versus 562 mb expected with winter wheat production up 70 mb. Northern Hemisphere harvest should gain later this week with weather a bit drier for much of the U.S. spring wheat areas. The dollar has faded below 100 on the index with selling after the cooler-than-expected inflation numbers, and Matif wheat is bit firmer. Weekly export sales were in line with recent weeks at 395,700 mt. On the KC September Chart, the 20-day moving average at $8.26 is first resistance area, with $7.92 as support, which we bounced from today. David Fiala can be reached at [email protected] Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (c) Copyright 2023 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.