By DTN Staff
This article was originally posted at 11:02 a.m. CDT on Friday, Aug. 11. It was last updated with additional information at 2:50 p.m. CDT on Friday, Aug. 11.
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OMAHA (DTN) -- As expected, USDA on Friday lowered both corn and soybean yields and production, dropping corn yields to 175.1 bushels per acre (bpa), and lowering soybean yields to 50.9 bpa.
Corn production was pegged at 15.11 billion bushels (bb) and soybean production was forecast at 4.2 billion bushels.
USDA released both the August Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports on Friday.
The August WASDE forecast follows the DTN Digital Yield Tour this week, which used Gro Intelligence daily yield models to forecast the U.S. average corn yield at 177 bpa and soybeans at 51 bpa. See, https://www.dtnpf.com/….
Friday's new-crop U.S. ending stocks estimates were roughly neutral for corn, soybeans and wheat, said DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman. World ending stocks estimates from USDA were a little bullish for corn and neutral for soybeans and wheat, he said.
You can also access the full reports here:
-- Crop Production: https://www.nass.usda.gov/…
-- World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE): http://www.usda.gov/…
CORN
USDA continued lowering its 2023-24 yield estimates, dropping it to 175.1 bpa, down 2.4 bpa from the July forecast. Production for the 2023-24 corn crop was also lowered to 15.11 billion bushels, down 209 million bushels (mb) from last month.
Both the yield and production declines came in lower than the average pre-report estimates from analysts.
USDA actually bumped up old-crop ending stocks by 55 million bushels, essentially increasing new-crop beginning stocks to 1.457 billion bushels.
New-crop ending stocks were lowered 60 million bushels to 2.202 billion bushels.
On the demand side, USDA projects the 2023-24 food, seed and industrial use at 6.715 bb, down 20 mb from last month. Ethanol use was held at 5.3 billion bushels. Total domestic use is forecast at 12.340 bb, down 45 mb.
Exports for the new crop were lowered 50 mb to 2.05 bb.
The farmgate price for the 2023-24 crop is projected at $4.90 a bushel, a 10-cent bump from last month.
Globally, beginning stocks for the 2023-24 new crop were increased 1.62 million metric tons (mmt) to 297.92 mmt. Production globally was lowered 10.97 mmt to 1,1213.5 mmt. Global exports were lowered by 2.07 mmt to 196.19 mmt. Global ending stocks for the new crop are forecast at 311.05 mmt, down 3.07 mmt.
Ukraine's production was increased 2.5 mmt to 27.5 mmt and despite the shutdown of the Black Sea ports, Ukraine's exports were held steady at 19.5 mmt.
Looking at global 2022-23 crop, Brazil's production was bumped up 2 mmt to 135 mmt and exports held pat at 56 mmt. Argentina's production was held at 34 mmt and Argentina's exports were held pat at 22 mmt as well.
SOYBEANS
USDA lowered its soybean yield estimate to 50.9 bushels per acre, 1.1 bushels less than last month, within the range of pre-report expectations. That lowers production to 4.205 billion bushels.
USDA raised beginning stocks for the 2023-24 season by 5 million bushels. The result was overall supply of 4.496 bb, 79 mb lower than last month's estimate. On the demand side, USDA lowered exports by 25 mb, dropping total use correspondingly. The net result was a 55-mb decline in ending stocks to 245 mb, which was also within the range of pre-report estimates.
The national average farm gate price increased 30 cents to $12.70 per bushel.
Globally, USDA's forecast for 2023-24 ending stocks for soybeans declined by 1.6 million metric tons to 119 mmt "mainly on lower U.S. stocks," USDA said.
For the old-crop 2022-23 year, USDA raised global ending stocks to 103.1 mmt, toward the high end of pre-report expectation.
WHEAT
USDA estimates U.S. wheat production at 1.734 billion bushels, a decrease from 1.739 bb in the July report.
USDA puts ending stocks for 2023-2024 wheat at 615 million bushels, an increase from 592 mb in July.
Wheat farm-gate prices were left unchanged at $7.50 per bushel.
Globally, USDA decreased ending stocks to 265.61 million metric tons from 266.53 mmt in July.
Beginning stocks decreased to 268.31 mmt, production fell to 793.37 mmt.
India's production is estimated at 113.50 mmt, unchanged from July. India exports were estimated at 1 mmt, unchanged from July.
USDA estimates China production at 137.0 mmt, a decrease from 140 mmt in July. Chinese exports are estimated at 900,000 mmt, unchanged from July.
USDA estimates production in Ukraine at 21.0 mmt, with exports at 10.5 mmt.
Russia production is estimated at 85.0 mmt, unchanged from July. Russian exports were estimated at 48.0 mmt.
All wheat production for grain is forecast at 1.73 billion bushels, down less than 1% percent from the previous forecast but up 5% from 2022.
Based on Aug. 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 45.8 bushels per harvested acre, down 0.3 bushel from the previous forecast and down 0.7 bushels from 2022. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 37.9 million acres, up less than 1% from the previous forecast and up 7% from 2022.
Winter wheat production is forecast at 1.23 billion bushels, up 2% from the July 1 forecast and up 11% from 2022. As of Aug. 1, the United States yield is forecast at 48.1 bushels per acre, up 1.2 bushels from last month and up 1.1 bushels from last year's average yield of 47.0 bushels per acre. Area expected to be harvested for grain or seed totals 25.5 million acres, down 1% from the acreage report released on June 30, 2023, but up 9% from last year.
Hard red winter production, at 585 million bushels, is up 1% from last month. Soft red winter, at 440 million bushels, is up 4% from the July forecast. White winter, at 202 million bushels, is down 2% from last month. Of the White winter production, 11.9 million bushels are hard white and 190 million bushels are soft white.
Durum wheat production is forecast at 57.4 million bushels, up 6% from the previous forecast but down 10% from 2022. Based on Aug. 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 35.5 bushels per harvested acre, down 2.4 bushels from the previous forecast and down 5.0 bushels from 2022.
Area expected to be harvested for grain or seed totals 1.62 million acres, up 13% from the acreage report released on June 30, 2023, and up 2% from 2022.
Other spring wheat production for grain is forecast at 450 million bushels, down 6% from the previous forecast and down 7% from last year. Based on Aug. 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 41.8 bushels per harvested acre, down 3.4 bushels from the previous forecast and down 4.4 bushel from 2022.
Area harvested for grain or seed is expected to total 10.8 million acres, up 2% from the acreage report released on June 30, 2023, and up 3% from 2022. Of the total production, 413 million bushels are hard red spring wheat, down 7% from 2022.
LIVESTOCK
Friday's WASDE report shared mixed news for the cattle and beef markets. First, production for 2023 was decreased by 180 million pounds as both fed steer and heifer slaughter speeds have been reduced, and dressed weights are expected to remain lighter than originally anticipated. However, it was interesting to note that the report specially noted that cow slaughter speeds remain elevated and are expected to remain high in the first part of 2024 -- indicating that any sort of build back in the U.S. beef cow herd has not yet started. Quarterly steer prices saw a big increase from last month as packer demand has remained incredibly strong. Steer prices in the third quarter of 2023 are now expected to average $184 (up $6 from last month), and fourth-quarter steers prices in 2023 are now expected to average $190 (up $7 from last month). Quarterly steer prices in the first quarter of 2024 are expected to average $188 (up $2 from last month), and second-quarter steer prices in 2024 are expected to average $186 (up $4 from last month). 2023 beef imports fell by 9 million pounds, and 2023 beef exports remained unchanged from last month.
Friday's WASDE report shared mixed news, as well, about the pork and hog markets. First, production for 2023 was decreased by 107 million pounds, as lighter dressed weights don't offset the slight rise in slaughter speed. Pork production for 2024 remained unchanged. Hog prices for 2023 saw a big increase from last month to reflect the current market's strength. For 2023, in the third quarter, hog prices are expected to average $74 (which is $11 higher from last month), and fourth-quarter prices are expected to average $63 (which is $6 higher from last month). For 2024, no quarterly price changes were made. 2023 pork imports were increased by 6 million pounds, but exports were also increased by 13 million pounds.
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Editor's Note: Join DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman at 12:30 p.m. CDT Friday as he goes through the numbers, discusses what they mean and talks about which estimates are reasonable and which are not. Questions are welcome, and registrants will receive a link later for viewing at their convenience. Register here for Friday's August WASDE and Crop Production reports webinar: https://www.dtn.com/….
| U.S. PRODUCTION (Million Bushels) 2023-24 | | | | |
| | Aug | Avg | High | | Low | Jul | 2022-23 |
| Corn | 15,111 | 15,126 | 15,361 | | 14,885 | 15,320 | 13,730 |
| Soybeans | 4,205 | 4,238 | 4,299 | | 4,140 | 4,300 | 4,276 |
| All Wheat | 1,734 | 1,740 | 1,757 | | 1,714 | 1,739 | 1,650 |
| Winter | 1,206 | 1,210 | 1,248 | | 1,196 | 1,206 | 1,104 |
| HRW | 585 | 579 | 590 | | 570 | 577 | 531 |
| SRW | 440 | 424 | 436 | | 420 | 422 | 337 |
| White | 239 | 208 | 232 | | 200 | 207 | 236 |
| | | | | | | | |
| | U.S. AVERAGE YIELD (Bushels Per Acre) 2023-24 (WASDE) |
| | Aug | Avg | High | | Low | Jul | 2022-23 |
| Corn | 175.1 | 175.4 | 178.0 | | 172.4 | 177.5 | 173.3 |
| Soybeans | 50.9 | 51.2 | 52.0 | | 50.1 | 52.0 | 49.5 |
| | | | | | | | |
| | U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2022-23 |
| | Aug | Avg | High | | Low | Jul | |
| Corn | 1,457 | 1,400 | 1,437 | | 1,277 | 1,402 | |
| Soybeans | 260 | 250 | 275 | | 220 | 255 | |
| Wheat | 580 | | 585 | | 560 | 580 | |
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| | U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2023-24 |
| | Aug | Avg | High | | Low | Jul | |
| Corn | 2,202 | 2,179 | 2,526 | | 2,011 | 2,262 | |
| Soybeans | 245 | 261 | 360 | | 177 | 300 | |
| Wheat | 615 | 594 | 635 | | 560 | 592 | |
| | | | | | | | |
| | WORLD ENDING STOCKS (million metric tons) 2022-23 | | |
| | Aug | Avg | High | | Low | Jul | |
| Corn | 297.9 | 296.9 | 299.9 | | 296.0 | 296.3 | |
| Soybeans | 103.1 | 102.8 | 103.1 | | 101.8 | 102.9 | |
| Wheat | 268.3 | 269.4 | 270.5 | | 268.5 | 269.3 | |
| | | | | | | | |
| | WORLD ENDING STOCKS (million metric tons) 2023-24 | | |
| | Aug | Avg | High | | Low | Jul | |
| Corn | 311.1 | 314.2 | 322.3 | | 310.0 | 314.1 | |
| Soybeans | 119.4 | 120.0 | 122.0 | | 117.0 | 121.0 | |
| Wheat | 265.6 | 266.0 | 267.3 | | 264.0 | 266.5 | |
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