DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

OMAHA (DTN) -- Retail fertilizer prices continued to fall at a substantial pace in the first full week of August 2023, according to sellers surveyed by DTN. As has been the case in recent weeks, prices for all eight major fertilizers were lower compared to a month ago.

For the second week in a row, seven of the eight major fertilizers had a large price decline from last month. DTN designates a significant move as anything 5% or more.

Anhydrous was lower again, with the nitrogen fertilizer 14% lower compared to last month and with an average price of $634 per ton.

Also 14% less expensive looking back to last month was UAN32. This nitrogen fertilizer had an average price of $400/ton.

Potash was 8% lower compared to last month with an average price of $566/ton. Both DAP and MAP were 7% less expensive compared to the prior month. DAP had an average price of $758/ton while MAP was at $764/ton.

UAN28 was 6% less expensive with an average price of $369/ton. Urea was 5% lower with an average price of $576/ton.

One fertilizer was just slightly lower compared to the prior month. 10-34-0 was down just a bit and had an average price of $714/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.63/lb.N, anhydrous $0.39/lb.N, UAN28 $0.66/lb.N and UAN32 $0.63/lb.N.

With fertilizer prices dropping steadily since the spring of 2022, I thought it would be interesting to look back at where retail fertilizer prices were one year ago.

As you can imagine, prices are significantly lower now compared to then.

The first week of August 2022 saw anhydrous with an average price of $1,387/ton. This week the average anhydrous price was $634/ton, a difference of a whopping $753/ton. Anhydrous prices have dropped more ($753/ton) than the current anhydrous price ($634/ton).

Other nitrogen fertilizers have seen smaller decreases. UAN32 was $679/ton then and now is $400/ton, a difference of $279/ton. UAN28 was $592/ton then and is now $369/ton, which is a difference of $223/ton. Urea was $812/ton then and is now at $576/ton, a difference of $236/ton.

The two phosphorus fertilizers have also seen some decent price decreases in the past year.

The first week of August 2022, the average DAP price was $1,003/ton, and this week it is at $758/ton, a difference of $245/ton. The average MAP price was $1036/ton a year ago and this week is at $764/ton, a difference of $272/ton.

Potash also saw an impressive price decline in the last year. Potash had an average price in August 2022 of $883/ton, and now the price is $566/ton, a difference of $317/ton.

The remaining fertilizer, 10-34-0, saw a smaller drop in price compared to the other fertilizers over the year. The price a year ago was $892/ton and now it is at $714/ton, a difference of $178/ton.

What will retail fertilizer prices be a year from now? Looking back to August 2022, I am fairly certain not very many people thought retail fertilizer prices would be at the current levels.All fertilizers are now lower by double digits compared to one year ago. 10-34-0 is 19% lower, DAP is 23% less expensive, MAP is 26% lower, urea is 29% less expensive, potash and UAN28 are both 36% lower, UAN32 is 41% lower and anhydrous is 54% less expensive compared to a year prior.

DTN gathers fertilizer price bids from agriculture retailers each week to compile the DTN Fertilizer Index. DTN first began reporting data in November 2008.

In addition to national averages, MyDTN subscribers can access the full DTN Fertilizer Index, which includes state averages, here: https://www.mydtn.com/….

There are a couple of different reasons for lower fertilizer prices since the second quarter of 2022, according to a report from the University of Illinois. You can read about it here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

Russ Quinn can be reached at Russ.Quinn@dtn.com

Follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, @RussQuinnDTN

(c) Copyright 2023 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.