DTN Midday Grain Comments 10/16 11:16

DTN Midday Grain Comments 10/16 11:16 Corn Lower; Beans and Wheat Higher Corn trade is 2 cents to 3 cents lower. Beans are 1 cents to 2 cents higher and wheat trade is 1 cents to 6 cents higher. David M. Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst MARKET SUMMARY: The U.S. stock market is higher with the DOW futures up 330 points. The dollar index is 31 points lower. Interest rate products are lower. Energies are lower with crude down 90 cents. Livestock trade is mixed with cattle mostly higher and hogs lower. Precious metals are lower with gold down $8 after the large jump on Friday CORN: Corn trade was 2 cents to 3 cents lower at midday after trading mixed overnight trading around 4 cents lower to 3 cents higher. The trade notes harvest pressure as one of the main items that stopped the upward momentum created from the friendly vs. expected October USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) last Thursday. The USDA 2023 US yield estimate was lowered to 173.0 BPA and carryout lower than expected at 2.111 billion bushels. However, a 2.1 billion bushel carryover is not an item promoting a bigger-picture bull market. The weekly export inspections were low at 434,471 tons this morning, which has limited upside. The forecasts call for good harvest weather over the next 10 days with only isolated wet spots which are likely to limit upside this week. The dollar is strong and ethanol margins are good which should promote sideways trade. On the December chart, the 20-day at $4.85 is nearby support with the $4.72 lower Bollinger Band key support. Resistance is at $4.99 area representing the recent highs and the upper Bollinger band, which is longer-term upside resistance at the 200-day moving average at $5.38. SOYBEANS: Soybean trade is 1 cents to 2 cents higher at midday. Beans have traded from slightly lower to around a dime higher overnight with a good inspection number providing midday support. Bean oil is up 110 points and meal is down $3 a ton. Last week soybean trade finished around 15 cents higher, meal was $18 higher and oil was 97 points lower, illustrating we are seeing corrective action here at midday. The weekly soybean export inspections were solid at 2,011,5899 tons. The NOPA September estimate is expected this morning to be shy of 162 million bushels vs. 161.5 in August. The beans saw a friendly WASDE last Thursday with the updated USDA Yield Estimate at 49.6 BPA with carryout at 220 million bushels. The world stocks were at 115.6 million metric tons vs. 119.6 expected. This should help limit downside with the market starting to focus moving toward the South American growing weather. U.S. weather should allow for harvest to move near completion over the next 10-14 days, and we should be well above the 50% level on the weekly progress number this afternoon vs. the 43% number last week. The November soybean chart has support at the $12.51 lower Bollinger Band, with nearby resistance at the $13 area, the high printed last week, and then upper resistance around the late August high of $14.10. WHEAT: Wheat trade followed the row crops with mixed trade overnight and early this morning, but wheat is firmer at midday up 1 cents to 6 cents. Wheat futures finished last week mixed with Chicago gaining on KC and Minneapolis. Here at midday, Chicago is losing slightly in the spread trade. The weekly export inspections were OK at 354,771 tons. Plains planting progress should continue to advance with further rains needed to establish good stands. Planting will continue in the Black Sea as bushels continue to move out. Some higher production estimates for Russia are noted as negative futures trade this morning while attention toward the Southern Hemisphere dry conditions in Argentina and Australia is expected to support wheat this week. On the WASDE last Thursday, the domestic carryout was 670 million bushels and world stocks were 258.1 million metric tons which should also limit downside. On the KC December Chart, the lower Bollinger Band is at $6.46 with the 20-day moving average at $6.89 nearby resistance. David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com Follow him on X, formerly Twitter, @davidfiala (c) Copyright 2023 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.