USDA Reports Preview

This time around, producer surveys and field data come from late October and early November, a time when producers have a stronger sense of how harvest has been going. USDA's new estimates of corn and soybean production will be released at 11 a.m. CST on Thursday, Nov. 9. Traders will also be watching for changes in crop estimates from around the world.

CORN

In the October World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, USDA estimated a 15.064 billion-bushel (bb) corn crop with a yield of 173.0 bushels per acre (bpa). This time, the difference is nearly three-fourths of the corn crop was harvested when NASS took the survey for November, and producers have a much better idea now of how harvest is going. Harvest weather has been mostly favorable this fall, and Monday's report from USDA showed 81% of corn harvested, a little ahead of the normal pace. Unless USDA does something highly unusual, it will be difficult to argue with Thursday's corn production estimate, an estimate that has a plus or minus 3% margin of error over the past 40 years.

Dow Jones' pre-report survey expects USDA to estimate U.S. ending corn stocks at 2.129 bb in 2023-24, based on a 15.076 bb crop and a yield of 173.2 bpa. The slightly higher estimates may be a little low, but sound reasonable as anecdotal reports from producers around the country have almost universally said they were surprised by better-than-expected corn yields, considering the limited amounts of rain crops received in 2023.

On the demand side, corn export sales and demand for ethanol production have both been running higher than USDA's estimated paces, but USDA may not make any changes this early in the new season. Dow Jones' survey expects USDA to slightly reduce its estimate of world ending corn stocks from 312.40 million metric tons (mmt) to 312.00 mmt. Traders will be watching estimates for Brazil and Argentina. Southern Brazil, especially, has been dealing with heavy rains and flooding, and DTN's longer-term forecast expects above-normal rains in the region to continue into May. In October, USDA estimated Brazil's corn production at 129.0 mmt or 5.08 bb and Argentina's production at 55.0 mmt or 2.17 bb. Brazil's Conab estimated corn production at 119.4 mmt or 4.70 bb, saying corn acres will be down in 2023-24.

SOYBEANS

For soybeans, Dow Jones' survey expects USDA to nudge its estimate of U.S. ending soybean stocks in 2023-24 from 220 million bushels (mb) to 221 mb, still the lowest in eight years. The survey expects USDA to estimate a slightly lower soybean crop of 4.098 bb with a slightly lower yield of 49.5 bushels per acre. Generally speaking, soybean yield reports have been higher in the eastern Midwest, while the talk has been disappointing in Western growing areas, hurt by the late stretch of dry weather. Don't be surprised if the soybean crop estimate comes in a little less than expected.

On the demand side, the crush incentive for soybean processors has narrowed modestly in the past month, but part of that has been due to a recognition in the tightness of soybean supplies. Soybean export sales have picked up lately but are running well below USDA's estimated pace. We may see another reduction in USDA's export estimate on Thursday.

Dow Jones expects USDA to slightly reduce its snapshot estimate of world soybean stocks from 115.62 mmt to 115.60 mmt, a record-high total that is 13% above the previous season, if true. Many will want to see if USDA's record-high 163.0 mmt (5.99 bb) soybean crop estimate for Brazil is trimmed back Thursday, due to a combination of excess rain in southern Brazil and lighter-than-normal rainfall in central Brazil. USDA's 48.0 mmt (1.76 bb) soybean crop estimate for Argentina is expected to stay unchanged as crop conditions have been helped by recent rains.

WHEAT

In October, USDA increased the U.S. wheat crop estimate to 1.812 bb and the estimate of U.S. ending wheat stocks to 670 mb, the second-lowest total in 10 years. Neither estimate should change much in November as export sales have been as poor as estimated, on track for the lowest total in over 50 years. Dow Jones' survey expects USDA to keep its ending U.S. wheat stocks estimate unchanged at 670 mb.

USDA's estimate of world ending wheat stocks will get attention after the Russian government recently increased its estimate of wheat production in 2023 to 93.0 mmt or 3.42 bb, close to a record high, depending on what source you follow. USDA's current production estimate for Russia is 85.0 mmt, and several private estimates have been in the upper 80s and low 90s. Other countries' estimates will also get attention as the Northern Hemisphere approaches dormancy and the Southern Hemisphere starts a new harvest season. Both Argentina and Australia have been contending with dry weather. USDA's WASDE reports won't deal with new winter wheat estimates in the North until May, but traders will remain interested in moisture levels through winter.

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Join us for DTN's webinar at 12:30 p.m. CST Thursday as we go through the numbers and discuss USDA's latest estimates. Questions are welcome and registrants will receive a link later for viewing at their convenience.

Register here for Thursday's November WASDE report webinar: https://www.dtn.com/….

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd Hultman on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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