News & Resources

DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

8 Nov 2023

OMAHA (DTN) -- Retail fertilizer prices continue to be mostly higher, according to prices tracked by DTN for the last week of October 2023.

Six of the eight major fertilizers were higher compared to last month. DTN designates a significant move as anything 5% or more.

The only fertilizer with a considerably higher move was once again anhydrous, which was 5% higher compared to last month. The nitrogen fertilizer had an average price of $826 per ton.

Five other fertilizers were just slightly higher looking back a month. DAP had an average price of $713/ton, MAP $801/ton, 10-34-0 $611/ton, UAN28 $358/ton and UAN32 $415/ton.

MAP was back above the $800/ton level for the first time since the third week of July 2023. The price 15 weeks ago was $812/ton.

Two fertilizers were just slightly lower in price compared to last month. Potash had an average price of $508/ton while urea was at $573/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.62/lb.N, anhydrous $0.50/lb.N, UAN28 $0.64/lb.N and UAN32 $0.65/lb.N.

RaboResearch Food and Agribusiness recently released its semiannual fertilizer outlook titled "What is next?" Lead author Bruno Fonseca, senior analyst of farm inputs for Rabobank, wrote the fertilizer market seemed to be calmer in 2023 compared to 2022.

The report's models showed a recovery in global fertilizer usage in 2023 of being up 3%, compared to the 7% drop in 2022. Fertilizer usage in 2024 is forecasted to be up 5%.

"These figures align with our Affordability Index, which shows much better conditions for purchasing fertilizer than a year ago," the report stated.

Nutrients will certainly face some challenges in 2024.

The nitrogen market will struggle with lower demand from corn and wheat growers, according to the report. There could be some uncertainty in the natural gas market and related uncertainty in the production cost of nitrogen fertilizers.

The outlook for phosphates and potash looks to have some positives. The phosphate market could see increased supply with the return of Chinese MAP/DAP exports, while more supply could be seen in the potash market.

All fertilizers are now lower by double digits compared to one year ago: MAP by 18%, 10-34-0 by 20%, DAP by 23%, urea by 31%, both UAN28 and UAN32 by 39%, potash by 41% and anhydrous is 42% cheaper.

DTN gathers fertilizer price bids from agriculture retailers each week to compile the DTN Fertilizer Index. DTN first began reporting data in November 2008.

In addition to national averages, MyDTN subscribers can access the full DTN Fertilizer Index, which includes state averages, here: https://www.mydtn.com/….

USDA announced 17 new projects that will receive funds from the government to increase domestic fertilizer production, according to a USDA press release. You can read about it here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

DRY
Date Range DAP MAP POTASH UREA
Oct 31-Nov 4 2022 930 981 857 826
Nov 28-Dec 2 2022 926 960 831 795
Dec 26-Dec 30 2022 885 891 765 751
Jan 23-Jan 27 2023 855 865 714 708
Feb 20-Feb 24 2023 836 834 673 666
Mar 20-Mar 24 2023 821 812 645 627
Apr 17-21 2023 826 812 643 626
May 15-19 2023 829 831 627 619
June 12-16 2023 823 832 621 624
July 10-14 2023 811 823 614 609
Aug 7-Aug 11 2023 758 764 566 576
Sep 4-8 2023 738 745 518 563
Oct 2-6 2023 705 791 508 573
Oct 30-Nov 3 2023 713 801 508 573
LIQUID
Date Range 10-34-0 ANHYD UAN28 UAN32
Oct 31-Nov 4 2022 759 1426 583 680
Nov 28-Dec 2 2022 753 1416 583 681
Dec 26-Dec 30 2022 751 1325 573 679
Jan 23-Jan 27 2023 754 1237&t;/td> 523 630
Feb 20-Feb 24 2023 741 1124 470 554
Mar 20-Mar 24 2023 740 1036 429 514
Apr 17-21 2023 740 995 423 507
May 15-19 2023 739 895 421 514
June 12-16 2023 737 781 406 476
July 10-14 2023 730 734 393 465
Aug 7-Aug 11 2023 714 634 369 400
Sep 4-8 2023 611 693 356 390
Oct 2-6 2023 609 790 354 414
Oct 30-Nov 3 2023 611 826 358 415

Russ Quinn can be reached at Russ.Quinn@dtn.com

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