DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

OMAHA (DTN) -- Retail fertilizer prices continue to be mostly higher, according to prices tracked by DTN for the last week of October 2023.

Six of the eight major fertilizers were higher compared to last month. DTN designates a significant move as anything 5% or more.

The only fertilizer with a considerably higher move was once again anhydrous, which was 5% higher compared to last month. The nitrogen fertilizer had an average price of $826 per ton.

Five other fertilizers were just slightly higher looking back a month. DAP had an average price of $713/ton, MAP $801/ton, 10-34-0 $611/ton, UAN28 $358/ton and UAN32 $415/ton.

MAP was back above the $800/ton level for the first time since the third week of July 2023. The price 15 weeks ago was $812/ton.

Two fertilizers were just slightly lower in price compared to last month. Potash had an average price of $508/ton while urea was at $573/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.62/lb.N, anhydrous $0.50/lb.N, UAN28 $0.64/lb.N and UAN32 $0.65/lb.N.

RaboResearch Food and Agribusiness recently released its semiannual fertilizer outlook titled "What is next?" Lead author Bruno Fonseca, senior analyst of farm inputs for Rabobank, wrote the fertilizer market seemed to be calmer in 2023 compared to 2022.

The report's models showed a recovery in global fertilizer usage in 2023 of being up 3%, compared to the 7% drop in 2022. Fertilizer usage in 2024 is forecasted to be up 5%.

"These figures align with our Affordability Index, which shows much better conditions for purchasing fertilizer than a year ago," the report stated.

Nutrients will certainly face some challenges in 2024.

The nitrogen market will struggle with lower demand from corn and wheat growers, according to the report. There could be some uncertainty in the natural gas market and related uncertainty in the production cost of nitrogen fertilizers.

The outlook for phosphates and potash looks to have some positives. The phosphate market could see increased supply with the return of Chinese MAP/DAP exports, while more supply could be seen in the potash market.

All fertilizers are now lower by double digits compared to one year ago: MAP by 18%, 10-34-0 by 20%, DAP by 23%, urea by 31%, both UAN28 and UAN32 by 39%, potash by 41% and anhydrous is 42% cheaper.

DTN gathers fertilizer price bids from agriculture retailers each week to compile the DTN Fertilizer Index. DTN first began reporting data in November 2008.

In addition to national averages, MyDTN subscribers can access the full DTN Fertilizer Index, which includes state averages, here: https://www.mydtn.com/….

USDA announced 17 new projects that will receive funds from the government to increase domestic fertilizer production, according to a USDA press release. You can read about it here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

Russ Quinn can be reached at Russ.Quinn@dtn.com

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