DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

OMAHA (DTN) -- Retail fertilizer prices were mixed again in the second week of December 2023, according to sellers surveyed by DTN.

Like last week, prices for five of the eight major fertilizers were lower than last month and prices for the remaining three fertilizers were slightly higher. DTN designates a significant move as anything 5% or more.

Two fertilizers had noteworthy price moves compared to last month. Both urea and UAN28 were down 6% compared to last month. Urea had an average price of $540 per ton while UAN28 was at $339 per ton.

Prices for the remaining three fertilizers were down just slightly. DAP had an average price of $713 per ton, 10-34-0 $595/ton and UAN32 $409/ton.

Prices for three fertilizers were just slightly higher compared to last month. MAP had an average price of $819/ton, potash $517/ton and anhydrous $851/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was $0.59/lb.N, anhydrous $0.52/lb.N, UAN28 $0.61/lb.N and UAN32 $0.64/lb.N.

In a presentation during the 2023 DTN Ag Summit earlier this month, DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman discussed some of the factors affecting the corn market this year and what could be seen in 2024. One area he touched on that was positive for the corn market in 2023 was lower fertilizer prices.

After seeing nutrient prices skyrocket to record-high levels in 2022, fertilizer returned to normalized levels in 2023, he said. Logistical issues, port congestion, a hurricane, the war in Ukraine and volatile natural gas prices all affected the supply of fertilizer in 2022.

In 2023, these issues lessened somewhat, more supply came to the world market, and prices fell because of this, Hultman said. Anhydrous ammonia fell 45% from the 2022 peak, and the other major fertilizers followed this path lower.

"We are getting back to 2021 levels before the big spike in prices happened, and helping a lot of this is a return of U.S. natural gas production," Hultman said.

One concern Hultman does have as we move into 2024 is the low Mississippi River water levels. There has been a slight increase in U.S. natural gas prices recently, which can be attributed to the low water levels on the river system, he said.

Hultman said there are some thoughts that with these low water levels, shipping natural gas -- and thus fertilizer -- up the river might be a major challenge in the coming months.

All fertilizers are now lower by double digits compared to one year ago. MAP is 13% lower, both 10-34-0 and DAP are 21% less expensive, urea is 31% lower, potash is 36% less expensive, both anhydrous and UAN32 are 40% lower and UAN28 is 41% less expensive compared to a year prior.

DTN gathers fertilizer price bids from agriculture retailers each week to compile the DTN Fertilizer Index. DTN first began reporting data in November 2008.

In addition to national averages, MyDTN subscribers can access the full DTN Fertilizer Index, which includes state averages, here: https://www.mydtn.com/….

Fitch Ratings adjusted its price assumptions for several different fertilizers, according to Dow Jones. You can read more about it here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

Russ Quinn can be reached at Russ.Quinn@dtn.com

Follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, @RussQuinnDTN

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