News & Resources

DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

20 Dec 2023

OMAHA (DTN) -- Retail fertilizer prices were mixed again in the second week of December 2023, according to sellers surveyed by DTN.

Like last week, prices for five of the eight major fertilizers were lower than last month and prices for the remaining three fertilizers were slightly higher. DTN designates a significant move as anything 5% or more.

Two fertilizers had noteworthy price moves compared to last month. Both urea and UAN28 were down 6% compared to last month. Urea had an average price of $540 per ton while UAN28 was at $339 per ton.

Prices for the remaining three fertilizers were down just slightly. DAP had an average price of $713 per ton, 10-34-0 $595/ton and UAN32 $409/ton.

Prices for three fertilizers were just slightly higher compared to last month. MAP had an average price of $819/ton, potash $517/ton and anhydrous $851/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was $0.59/lb.N, anhydrous $0.52/lb.N, UAN28 $0.61/lb.N and UAN32 $0.64/lb.N.

In a presentation during the 2023 DTN Ag Summit earlier this month, DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman discussed some of the factors affecting the corn market this year and what could be seen in 2024. One area he touched on that was positive for the corn market in 2023 was lower fertilizer prices.

After seeing nutrient prices skyrocket to record-high levels in 2022, fertilizer returned to normalized levels in 2023, he said. Logistical issues, port congestion, a hurricane, the war in Ukraine and volatile natural gas prices all affected the supply of fertilizer in 2022.

In 2023, these issues lessened somewhat, more supply came to the world market, and prices fell because of this, Hultman said. Anhydrous ammonia fell 45% from the 2022 peak, and the other major fertilizers followed this path lower.

"We are getting back to 2021 levels before the big spike in prices happened, and helping a lot of this is a return of U.S. natural gas production," Hultman said.

One concern Hultman does have as we move into 2024 is the low Mississippi River water levels. There has been a slight increase in U.S. natural gas prices recently, which can be attributed to the low water levels on the river system, he said.

Hultman said there are some thoughts that with these low water levels, shipping natural gas -- and thus fertilizer -- up the river might be a major challenge in the coming months.

All fertilizers are now lower by double digits compared to one year ago. MAP is 13% lower, both 10-34-0 and DAP are 21% less expensive, urea is 31% lower, potash is 36% less expensive, both anhydrous and UAN32 are 40% lower and UAN28 is 41% less expensive compared to a year prior.

DTN gathers fertilizer price bids from agriculture retailers each week to compile the DTN Fertilizer Index. DTN first began reporting data in November 2008.

In addition to national averages, MyDTN subscribers can access the full DTN Fertilizer Index, which includes state averages, here: https://www.mydtn.com/….

Fitch Ratings adjusted its price assumptions for several different fertilizers, according to Dow Jones. You can read more about it here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

DRY
Date Range DAP MAP POTASH UREA
Dec 12-Dec 16 2022 902 939 807 779
Jan 9-Jan 13 2023 868 875 742 732
Feb 6-Feb 10 2023 840 857 694 693
Mar 6-Mar 10 2023 825 823 657 643
Apr 3-7 2023 818 809 642 625
May 1-5 2023 826 805 623 599
May 29-Jun 2 2023 824 832 620 622
June 26-30 2023 825 829 620 616
July 24-28 2023 795 791 594 581
Aug 21-25 2023 735 764 557 575
Sep 18-22 2023 702 757 501 566
Oct 16-20 2023 709 791 504 574
Nov 13-27 2023 717 811 511 574
Dec 11-15 2023 713 819 517 540
LIQUID
Date Range 10-34-0 ANHYD UAN28 UAN32
Dec 12-Dec 16 2022 750 1415 579 682
Jan 9-Jan 13 2023 754 1245 563 650
Feb 6-Feb 10 2023 755 1220 499 579
Mar 6-Mar 10 2023 740 1059 436 522
Apr 3-7 2023 740 1002 423 507
May 1-5 2023 739 926 424 507
May 29-Jun 2 2023 739 791 413 478
June 26-30 2023 731 753 396 468
July 24-28 2023 715 691 383 442
Aug 21-25 2023 698 622 355 399
Sep 18-22 2023 610 763 352 405
Oct 16-20 2023 612 809 356 418
Nov 13-27 2023 613 843 361 415
Dec 11-15 2023 595 851 339 409

Russ Quinn can be reached at Russ.Quinn@dtn.com

Follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, @RussQuinnDTN