OMAHA (DTN) -- Traders and the cattle industry alike are expected to delay any significant holiday planning and activities until after the release of the Dec. 1 USDA Cattle on Feed report Friday afternoon.
The timing of this report is not ideal, following a generally quiet pre-holiday trading week and following closing bell before the three-day Christmas holiday break. Following the report, traders will not have access to trade the report until next Tuesday morning, which means there will be plenty of time to digest and ruminate over the report during Christmas celebrations over the weekend. Pre-report analyst estimates predict a moderate increase in on-feed numbers as of Dec. 1, while placement and marketing levels are expected to be down.
Cattle on feed numbers are estimated at 102.2% of year-ago levels, which would call for total cattle in commercial feedyards of 11.93 million head. If realized, this would be slightly below November on-feed numbers. But if pre-report estimates miss even slightly on the lower end, current cattle on feed levels would be at the highest level since May 2022.
Following the last three months of reports where cattle placements were the main focus, overall placements are expected to be below year-ago levels, once again putting even more emphasis on total cattle on feed. Estimated placement levels are expected at 95.9% of a year ago. If these estimates are correct, it confirms that more cattle were placed earlier this year, which accounts for the heavy placement levels in the past two reports. Cattle marketed numbers are expected to once again be well below a year ago with a pre-report estimate of 93.3% of 2022 levels.
QUARTERLY HOGS AND PIGS REPORT ALSO OUT FRIDAY
As if the Cattle on Feed report ahead of the holiday weekend were not enough excitement for Friday, the quarterly Hogs and Pigs report will also be released at 2 p.m. CST Friday. This report carries much less anticipation but given the softness in lean hog markets over the past couple of months, this report could help to create some market direction during early January.
Only narrow market shifts are expected in the Hogs and Pigs report, which should keep this from being a significant market-mover again. The expectation is that fractional declines will be seen in nearly all production areas. Available estimates appear to point to a 0.5% decline in all hog numbers from a year ago.
The biggest concern facing the lean hog and cash hog markets regarding this report is the lack of production reductions that many feel are necessary to help support hog price gains during the first quarter of 2024.
**
USDA will release its Dec. 1 Cattle on Feed and quarterly Hogs and Pigs report at 2 p.m. CST on Friday.
| | USDA Actual | Average Estimate | Range |
| On Feed Dec. 1 | | 102.2% | 101.8-102.4% |
| Placed in November | | 95.9% | 94.4-98.3% |
| Marketed in November | | 93.3% | 92.8-94.5% |
(c) Copyright 2023 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.