USDA Dec. 1 Cattle on Feed Report

22 Dec 2023

By DTN Staff

This article was originally published at 2:05 p.m. CST on Friday, Dec. 22. It was last updated with additional information at 2:41 p.m. CST on Friday, Dec. 22.

OMAHA (DTN) -- Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 12.0 million head on Dec. 1, 2023. The inventory was 3% above Dec. 1, 2022, USDA NASS reported on Friday.

Placements in feedlots during November totaled 1.87 million head, 2% below 2022. Net placements were 1.81 million head. During November, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 535,000 head, 600-699 pounds were 440,000 head, 700-799 pounds were 380,000 head, 800-899 pounds were 288,000 head, 900-999 pounds were 140,000 head, and 1,000 pounds and greater were 85,000 head.

Marketings of fed cattle during November totaled 1.75 million head, 7% below 2022.

Other disappearance totaled 54,000 head during November, 5% below 2022.

DTN ANALYSIS

"Cattle on feed numbers increased more than expected in the Dec. 1 USDA Cattle on Feed report released Friday afternoon," said DTN Contributing Analyst Rick Kment. "Total on-feed numbers are at 12.006 million head, 3% above year-ago levels, and a moderate gain from November levels. The total number of cattle on feed is the largest since April of 2022, as on-feed numbers continue to rise following the combination of still-strong cattle placement levels and reduced overall marketing of cattle during the month of November.

"The fact that cattle on feed numbers have come in above estimates is likely to have a generally negative tone for the market once traders have a chance to trade this information next Tuesday after the Christmas holiday break. The fact that markets will remain closed on Monday and traders have additional time to marinate on report numbers may add even more uncertainty to trade activity and price moves early next week. The percentage increase in cattle on feed numbers is the largest year-over-year percentage increase since May 2022, which will also likely add to market softness in the near future, confirming that supply levels are not quickly easing. The largest increases in cattle on feed numbers were in Oklahoma and Kansas in November, gaining 16% and 7%, respectively, while Colorado and Nebraska on-feed numbers fell 1% from year-ago levels.

"Cattle placements were lower than a year ago, as expected, but still well above pre-report projections. Total cattle placed in commercial feedyards during November was 98% from a year ago, but this is still nearly 60,000 head above what the trade anticipated before the report was released. This is also expected to have a moderately negative impact on market activity early next week. But once again, the limited holiday trade volume through the end of the year may add to the market volatility, keeping cattle markets and prices shifting in a moderate-to-wide range for days to come. Oklahoma and Arizona posted the largest placement gains from a year ago, with 29% and 26% increases, respectively, while Washington and South Dakota were reduced the largest on a percentage basis, falling 17% and 18%, respectively, during the month of November. Nebraska still had the largest number of placements in November of any state with 490,000 head.

"Cattle marketed during November came in as expected at 93% of a year ago. The pressure on marketing levels over the past three months has continued to limit the ability to reduce overall supplies. If marketing levels do not significantly improve over the next couple of months, strong cattle on feed numbers are likely to persist and keep cattle markets under pressure through the first quarter of 2024."

DTN subscribers can view the full Cattle on Feed reports in the Livestock Archives folder under the Markets menu. The report is also available at https://www.nass.usda.gov/….