USDA Jan. 1 Cattle Inventory Report

By DTN Staff

This article was originally posted at 2:27 p.m. CST on Wednesday, Jan. 31. It was last updated with new information at 2:53 p.m. CST on Wednesday, Jan. 31.

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OMAHA (DTN) -- All cattle and calves in the United States as of Jan. 1, 2024, totaled 87.2 million head, 2% below the 88.1 million head on Jan. 1, 2023, USDA NASS reported on Wednesday.

All cows and heifers that have calved, at 37.6 million head, were 2% below the 38.3 million head on January 1, 2023. Beef cows, at 28.2 million head, were down 2% from a year ago. Milk cows, at 9.36 million head, were down slightly from the previous year.

All heifers 500 pounds and over as of January 1, 2024, totaled 18.5 million head, 1% below the 18.8 million head on January 1, 2023. Beef replacement heifers, at 4.86 million head, were down 1% from a year ago. Milk replacement heifers, at 4.06 million head, were down slightly from the previous year. Other heifers, at 9.57 million head, were 2% below a year earlier. Steers weighing 500 pounds and over as of January 1, 2024, totaled 15.8 million head, down 2% from January 1, 2023.

Bulls weighing 500 pounds and over as of January 1, 2024, totaled 2.02 million head, down slightly from January 1, 2023.

Calves under 500 pounds as of January 1, 2024, totaled 13.3 million head, down 3% from January 1, 2023.

Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for all feedlots totaled 14.4 million head on January 1, 2024. The inventory is up 2% from the January 1, 2023, total of 14.2 million head. Cattle on feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head accounted for 82.7 % of the total cattle on feed on January 1, 2024, up slightly from the previous year. The combined total of calves under 500 pounds and other heifers and steers over 500 pounds (outside of feedlots), at 24.2 million head, was 4 % below January 1, 2023.

CALF CROP DOWN 2 PERCENT

The 2023 calf crop in the United States was estimated at 33.6 million head, down 2% from the previous year's calf crop. Calves born during the first half of 2023 were estimated at 24.7 million head, down 2% from the first half of 2022. Calves born during the second half of 2023 were estimated at 8.89 million head, 26% of the total 2023 calf crop.

Revisions

All inventory and calf crop estimates for July 1, 2022, January 1, 2023, and July 1, 2023, were reviewed using calf crop, official slaughter, import and export data, and the relationship of new survey information to the prior surveys. Based on the findings of this review, July 1, 2022, all cattle and calves decreased by 0.3%. January 1, 2023, all cattle and calves decreased by 0.5% and 2022 calf crop decreased by 0.1%. July 1, 2023, all cattle and calves decreased by 0.5% and 2023 calf crop decreased by 0.6%.

DTN ANALYSIS

"Wednesday's Cattle Inventory report came with no surprises as the industry expected the report to showcase fewer numbers," said DTN Livestock Analyst ShayLe Stewart. "But what the report did do, however, is carve out yet another new low in the US beef cowherd, at 28.2 million head, down 2% from a year ago. The Cattle Inventory report data first began being reported in 1972, and based on the data since then, never has the US cowherd been this low before.

"Even though new, all-time high feeder cattle prices were achieved in 2023, extremely high input costs along with regional drought kept producers from keeping replacement females and kept the liquidation phase in this cycle alive.

"The top ten states with the most beef cows are Texas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Nebraska, South Dakota, Kansas, Montana, Kentucky, North Dakota and Florida. Only one of those states (Kentucky) showed a year-over-year increase in beef cows, while all the other states saw a decrease in their beef cow herds by anywhere from 2% to 6%.

"The report also disclosed that the 2023 calf crop was estimated at 33.6 million head, which is also down 2% from a year ago.

"In conclusion, today's report comes as a bullish announcement to the industry and market alike. Tight supplies amid strong demand beckons for prices to become higher across all sectors of the industry. Until we see that the liquidation phase in this cycle is done, feeder cattle prices and fed cattle prices should remain incredibly strong as limited supplies will support robust prices."

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DTN subscribers can view the full USDA Cattle inventory report in the Livestock Archives folder under the Markets menu. The report is also available at https://www.nass.usda.gov/….

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