On Thursday, March 28, USDA will issue its annual Prospective Plantings survey and March 1 Grain Stocks report at 11 a.m. CDT, a combination that gets attention and has sparked sizeable price moves in prior years.
PROSPECTIVE PLANTINGS
With the calendar turned to spring, the new planting season is not far away. USDA will release the results of its annual March planting survey on Thursday. According to Dow Jones' survey of 18 analysts, USDA is expected to announce 92.0 million acres of corn plantings, down from 94.6 million acres in 2023. For soybeans, 86.3 million acres are expected to be planted in 2024, up from 83.6 million acres in 2023. For all wheat plantings, 47.7 million acres are expected to be planted in 2024, down from 49.6 million acres in 2023.
Winter wheat plantings are expected at 35.1 million acres, down from 36.7 million in 2023. Spring wheat plantings are expected at 10.9 million acres, down from 11.2 million in 2023. For durum, 1.7 million acres are expected to be planted, only slightly lower than last year.
USDA's March survey has not always succeeded as a predictor of planted acres. Weather has been the primary, but not only, challenge to the accuracy of this report. In 2020, the ill-timed arrival of COVID-19 resulted in a March corn planting estimate that was 6.3 million acres higher than USDA's final estimate. In 2023, USDA's March survey underestimated corn acres by 2.6 million and overestimated soybean acres by 3.9 million.
In 2024, DTN's seasonal forecast expects drier weather in April with below-normal temperatures in the Eastern Corn Belt. May looks more favorable for planting with better rain chances and above-normal temperatures for most of the Corn Belt.
The one thing we can say for the March planting report is that it does get plenty of attention and has potential for large price moves, if a surprise pops up. Just two years ago, December corn posted a 27 3/4-cent gain after the report. In 2021, November soybeans closed up their 70-cent limit on the day of the report.
Dow Jones' survey did not include cotton acres, but it may help to know USDA estimated 11.7 million acres of U.S. cotton plantings at the Ag Outlook Forum in February, up from 10.23 million acres in 2023. The National Cotton Council, on the other hand, estimated 9.8 million acres of 2024 plantings on Feb. 18.
MARCH 1 GRAIN STOCKS
USDA's Grain Stocks reports typically don't get the attention they deserve from traders, but are the most important pieces of check and balance information USDA provides. In the case of corn, actual exports are up 30% in 2023-24 from a year ago, a little above USDA's estimated pace. Ethanol production is also running a little above USDA's estimated pace, up 4.4% in 2023-24 versus a year ago at this time. Based on early production totals, feed demand should be a little lower than a year ago, but cattle-on-feed numbers have held above last year's levels, so far. Dow Jones' survey expects USDA to find 8.439 billion bushels (bb) of corn on hand March 1, up 14% from a year ago. If true, it would be the highest March total in five years and would reinforce USDA's 2.17 bb U.S. ending corn stocks estimate.
For soybeans, actual exports are down 18% in 2023-24 from a year ago, while the soybean crush pace is up 4.6% from a year ago. Dow Jones' survey expects USDA to find 1.832 bb of soybeans on hand March 1, the highest March total in two years. If true, that would be a slightly bullish pace, compared to USDA's ending stocks estimate of 315 million bushels (mb) for 2023-24. The difficult challenge for soybean demand is trying to figure out China's share, an export total that is down 24% so far this season.
For wheat, Dow Jones' survey expects USDA to find 1.053 bb of wheat on hand March 1, up 12% from a year ago and the highest March total in three years. Wheat prices continue to be pressured by the lowest export demand in more than 50 years.
Register now so you can join us Thursday for DTN's 12:30 p.m. CDT webinar. We will discuss USDA's latest numbers and what they mean to markets. Given the history of USDA's March-end reports, we have to warn that big price moves could follow. Replay links will be provided for viewing at your convenience. Register now at: https://ag.dtn.com/…
| QUARTERLY STOCKS (million bushels) | |
| | 3/1/24 | Avg | High | Low | 12/1/23 | 3/1/23 |
| Corn | | 8,439 | 8,700 | 8,129 | 12,169 | 7,396 |
| Soybeans | | 1,832 | 1,986 | 1,740 | 3,000 | 1,687 |
| Wheat | | 1,053 | 1,081 | 997 | 1,410 | 941 |
| | | | | | | |
| PROSPECTIVE PLANTINGS |
| ACREAGE (million acres) | USDA | |
| | 3/28/24 | Avg | High | Low | 2023 | |
| Corn | | 92.0 | 93.8 | 90.0 | 94.6 | |
| Soybeans | | 86.3 | 88.0 | 84.3 | 83.6 | |
| All Wheat | | 47.7 | 50.0 | 46.6 | 49.6 | |
| Winter | | 35.1 | 38.4 | 34.0 | 36.7 | |
| Spring | | 10.9 | 11.3 | 10.1 | 11.2 | |
| Durum | | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 1.7 | |
Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com
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