By DTN Staff
This article was originally published at 11:01 a.m. CDT on Friday, May 10. It was last updated with additional information at 11:30 a.m. CDT on Friday, May 10.
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OMAHA (DTN) -- USDA on Friday forecast farmers this spring are planting what will become a 14.86-billion-bushel corn crop and a 4.45-billion-bushel soybean crop.
USDA estimated the 2024-25 corn yield will be 181 bushels per acre. The soybean crop is also projected at 52 bpa.
USDA on Friday released the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report for May, which includes the first detailed forecast for the 2024-25 corn and soybean crops.
USDA also released its May Crop Production report on Friday.
Friday's U.S. ending stocks estimates were slightly bullish for corn and neutral for soybeans and wheat, according to DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman. World ending stocks estimates from USDA were bullish for corn, neutral for soybeans and slightly bullish for wheat, he said.
Stay tuned throughout the morning and refresh this page often, as we will be sending a series of updates with the important highlights from today's reports, including commentary from our analysts.
You can also view the full reports here:
-- Crop Production: https://www.nass.usda.gov/…
-- World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE): http://www.usda.gov/…
CORN
USDA pegged the 2024-25 "new crop" for corn at 14.86 billion bushels (bb) with a 181-bushel-per-acre (bpa) yield on 90 million planted acres.
For demand, USDA projected total Feed and Residual use at 5.75 bb. Ethanol use is forecast at 5.45 bb. Total domestic use is forecast at 12.605 billion bushels.
Exports for the 2024-25 crop are forecast at 2.2 billion bushels.
Ending stocks for the new crop are projected at 2.102 billion bushels.
The farmgate price for 2024-25 is projected at $4.40 a bushel.
Globally, USDA projects 2024-25 crop production at 1,219.93 million metric tons (mmt). Ending stocks for the new crop are initially pegged at 312.27 mmt.
Looking at the 2023-24 "old crop," corn ending stocks were pegged at 2.022 bb, which is 100 mb lower than April.
USDA increased both domestic demand and exports by 50 mb each.
Ethanol use is forecast at 5.45 bb, up 50 mb from April. Total domestic use is forecast at 12.55 bb, up 50 mb.
Exports for the 2023-24 corn crop are pegged at 2.15 bb, up 50 mb.
USDA lowered the 2023-24 farmgate price 5 cents to $4.65 a bushel.
Globally, ending stocks for the 2023-24 crop were pegged at 313.08 mmt, down 5.2 mmt from April.
USDA lowered Brazil's corn production 2 mmt to 122 mmt and dropped Brazil's exports 2 mmt as well to 50 mmt.
Argentina's production was lowered 2 mmt to 53 mmt and export volume was lowered to 38 mmt, down 4 mmt from last month.
SOYBEANS
For the new-crop, 2024-25 crop year, USDA estimates soybean production at 4.45 billion bushels, slightly higher than the average pre-report estimate. It sees 86.5 million planted acres with an average national yield of 52 bpa.
On the supply and demand side, USDA sees new-crop ending stocks growing to 445 million bushels, within the range of expectations. Crush demand is expected grow to 2.425 bb and exports to 1.825 bb. Overall use is forecast to be 246 million bushels higher than in the 2023-24 crop season at 4.36 bb. The national average farm gate price is forecast at $11.20, $1.35 per bushel lower than the 2023-24 season.
On domestic old-crop stocks and use for the 2023-24 crop year, USDA shuffled soybeans between demand categories, but left ending stocks unchanged at 340 mb. USDA sees 23 mb less going to seed use and 24 mb more going to residual use. The national average farm gate price was lowered by a dime to $12.55 per bushel.
Globally, USDA made a minor change to the 2023-24 Brazil soybean crop estimate, lowering it by 1 mmt to 154 mmt. Argentina production was left unchanged at 50 mmt. These are the crops currently being harvested.
Worldwide ending stocks for the 2023-24 season were lowered by 2.44 mmt to 111.78 mmt on further reductions to production and slightly increased domestic use.
USDA sees global ending stocks for the new, 2024-25 crop climbing to 128.5 mmt. It sees next year's crop in Brazil climbing to 169 mmt and Argentina to 51 mmt.
WHEAT
USDA estimates 2024-2025 U.S. wheat production at 1.858 billion bushels in May's report, an increase from 1.659 bb last May. Old-crop production is left unchanged from April's estimate of 1.812 bb.
USDA estimates U.S. wheat 2024-2025 ending stocks at 766 million bushels. Old-crop ending stocks were estimated at 688 mb, decreased from 698 mb in April.
Total use for the new crop is estimated at 1.899 bb. USDA estimates the farm gate price at $6.00 per bushel. Old-crop use was estimated at 1.834 bb, increased from 1.824 bb in April.
Winter wheat production is forecast at 1.28 billion bushels, up 2% from 2023. That is the highest estimate since 1.28 bb in 2021.
As of May 1, the United States yield is forecast at 50.7 bushels per acre, up 0.1 bushel from last year's average yield of 50.6 bushels per acre. Area expected to be harvested for grain or seed totals 25.2 million acres, up 2% from last year.
Hard red winter production, at 705 million bushels, is up 17% from a year ago. Soft red winter, at 344 million bushels, is down 23% from 2023. White winter, at 229 million bushels, is up 16% from last year. Of the white winter production, 17.3 million bushels are hard white and 211 million bushels are soft white.
On world wheat ending stocks, USDA estimates 253.6 million metric tons for the 2024-2025 crop. Old-crop ending stocks is estimated at 257.8 mmt, decreased from 258.27 mmt last month.
Global wheat production for 2024-2025 is estimated at 798.19 mmt. Old-crop wheat production is estimated at 787.72 mmt, up from 787.36 mmt last month.
World wheat production in 2024-2025 is estimated at 132.0 mmt in the European Union; 88.0 mmt in Russia; 21.0 mmt in Ukraine; 34.0 mmt in Canada; 29.0 mmt in Australia; and 17.0 mmt in Argentina.
LIVESTOCK
Friday's WASDE report shared mixed news for the cattle and beef markets, said DTN Livestock Analyst ShayLe Stewart. Beef production for 2024 was increased as heavier carcass weights and faster chain speeds are leading to greater production totals. Beef production in 2024 is expected to total 25,595 million pounds -- up 140 million pounds from last month's report. Projected steer prices fell for the three remaining quarters of 2024. Steer prices in the second quarter are now expected to average $184 (down $1 from last month), third-quarter prices are expected to average $182 (down $2 from last month) and fourth-quarter prices are expected to average $187 (down $3 from last month). 2024 beef imports fell by 4 million pounds, but exports grew by 13 million pounds as the first of 2024 sold more product than originally assumed.
Friday's WASDE report shared disappointing for the hog and pork markets in 2024. Pork production in 2024 was decreased by 26 million pounds as greater processing speeds in the first half of the year are more than offset by the lighter carcass weights projected in the second half of the year. Pork production in 2024 is expected to total 28,064 million pounds -- 26 million pounds less than last month's estimate. Unfortunately, hog prices for the remaining three quarters of 2024 were lowered as demand in the second half of the year is expected to be weaker. Hog prices in the second quarter of 2024 are expected to average $68 (unchanged from last month), third-quarter hog prices are expected to average $71 (down $1 from last month) and fourth-quarter hog prices are expected to average $56 (down $1.00 from last month). 2024 pork imports fell by 2 million pounds from last month, but exports fell by 78 million pounds as demand has weakened.
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With new Northern crop seasons getting underway, join us for DTN's webinar at 12:30 p.m. CDT Friday as we discuss USDA's new estimates and add in our own market comments. Questions are welcome and registrants will receive a replay link for viewing at their convenience. Register here for Friday's May WASDE report webinar: https://www.dtn.com/….
| U.S. PRODUCTION (Million Bushels) 2024-25 | | | |
| | May | Avg | High | Low | 2022-23 | |
| Corn | 14,860 | 14,897 | 15,342 | 14,720 | 15,342 | |
| Soybeans | 4,450 | 4,430 | 4,496 | 4,165 | 4,165 | |
| All Wheat | 1,858 | 1,889 | 1,952 | 1,775 | 1,812 | |
| Winter | 1,248 | 1,305 | 1,395 | 1,210 | 1,248 | |
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| U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2023-24 |
| | May | Avg | High | Low | Apr | |
| Corn | 2,022 | 2,098 | 2,350 | 1,967 | 2,122 | |
| Soybeans | 340 | 341 | 365 | 304 | 340 | |
| Wheat | 687 | 689 | 710 | 598 | 698 | |
| | | | | | | |
| U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2024-25 |
| | May | Avg | High | Low | | |
| Corn | 2,102 | 2,256 | 2,513 | 2,032 | | |
| Soybeans | 445 | 432 | 552 | 315 | | |
| Wheat | 766 | 786 | 862 | 652 | | |
| | | | | | | |
| WORLD ENDING STOCKS (million metric tons) 2023-24 | | |
| | May | Avg | High | Low | Apr | |
| Corn | 313.1 | 315.3 | 317.2 | 311.0 | 318.3 | |
| Soybeans | 111.8 | 112.4 | 115.0 | 109.0 | 114.2 | |
| Wheat | 257.8 | 258.1 | 259.5 | 257.0 | 258.3 | |
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| WORLD ENDING STOCKS (million metric tons) 2024-25 | | |
| | May | Avg | High | Low | | |
| Corn | 312.3 | 317.4 | 321.2 | 312.0 | | |
| Soybeans | 128.5 | 120.0 | 130.2 | 109.5 | | |
| Wheat | 253.6 | 256.9 | 241.8 | 264.4 | | |
| | | | | | | |
| WORLD PRODUCTION (million metric tons) 2023-24 | | |
| | May | Avg | High | Low | Apr | |
| CORN | | | | | | |
| Argentina | 53.0 | 52.0 | 55.0 | 50.0 | 55.0 | |
| Brazil | 122.0 | 122.5 | 125.6 | 120.0 | 124.0 | |
| SOYBEANS | | | | | | |
| Argentina | 50.0 | 49.5 | 50.0 | 48.0 | 50.0 | |
| Brazil | 154.0 | 152.6 | 155.0 | 147.0 | 155.0 | |
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