USDA Reports Preview

Wednesday's June 12 reports from USDA, which will be released at 11 a.m. CDT, will update new-crop wheat production estimates in the U.S. and around the world at a time when winter wheat harvest is getting underway. USDA will also take another look at South American crop estimates after last month's flooding in southern Brazil.

CORN

The latest report from USDA showed 91% of the corn crop planted as of June 2, 2 percentage points above the five-year average. As good as that sounds, the planting pace is also tied for the second slowest in 10 years with 2022, a year that had 6.4 million acres of prevented plantings. The better answer to the riddle of how many corn acres were planted in 2024 won't come until USDA's June 28 Acreage report. My best guess is that Wednesday's WASDE report may show a slightly lower yield as an acknowledgement of this year's wet spring conditions.

Similarly, Dow Jones' pre-report survey expects USDA will estimate 14.845 billion bushels (bb) of corn production for 2024, based on a slightly lower yield of 180.8 bushels per acre (bpa), ending with modest reductions in U.S. corn ending stocks. For 2023-24, ending stocks are expected to be lowered from 2.022 bb to 1.984 bb. For the new season, ending corn stocks are expected to be reduced from 2.102 bb to 2.048 bb. Old-crop demand for corn is doing well, and if USDA makes any changes, the amounts are apt to be small.

USDA's estimate of world ending corn stocks in 2023-24 is expected to be trimmed from 313.1 million metric tons (mmt) to 311.5 mmt, or 12.26 bb, largely due to small reductions in the corn production estimates for Brazil and Argentina. Dow Jones is looking for the estimate on Brazil's corn production to go from 122.0 mmt to 121.0 mmt, or 4.76 bb. Brazil's crop agency, Conab, is estimating 111.6 mmt, or 4.39 bb, of production. USDA's estimate for Argentina is expected to move from 53.0 mmt to 51.2 mmt, or 2.02 bb, well above the 46.5 mmt estimate from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange. So far, the theme of USDA being on the high end of South American estimates continues. Conab will have its next update on Thursday, June 13.

SOYBEANS

As of June 2, USDA says 78% of U.S. soybeans have been planted, comfortably ahead of their five-year average and with more time to spare, not having the same yield threat corn crops do for being planted at a later date.

Dow Jones' survey is not expecting much change to the U.S. production estimate in June, 4.444 bb of soybean production versus a May estimate of 4.450 bb and a slightly lower yield estimate of 51.9 bpa. Dow Jones expects old-crop U.S. ending stocks to be increased from 340 million bushels (mb) to 348 mb and new-crop ending stocks to go up from 445 mb to 455 mb. I expect ending stocks to either stay even or be reduced a small amount this time around. There is a chance of a small reduction in the export estimate, as exports haven't quite kept pace this season. But there is also room for a 25-mb increase in the crush estimate, if USDA agrees.

There continues to be wide disagreement between USDA's 154.0-mmt estimate of Brazil's soybean production and Conab's 147.7-mmt estimate, with the International Grains Council splitting the difference at 150.0 mmt. The worst flooding in Rio Grande do Sul in 80 years should give USDA plenty of reason to reduce its high estimate, and Dow Jones' analysts expect to see 151.8 mmt, or 5.58 bb, in Wednesday's report. The one estimate where analysts seem to closely agree is USDA's 50.0 mmt soybean production estimate for Argentina. Dow Jones' expects a slight reduction on Wednesday, to 49.8 mmt or 1.83 bb.

USDA's 128.5-mmt estimate of world soybean stocks for 2024-25 is a new record by far and casts a bearish gloom over the long-term outlook for soybean prices. The catch, of course, is the season is just getting started in the Northern Hemisphere, and new crops are three months away from being planted in the Southern Hemisphere. In 2023-24, Dow Jones expects small reductions in the world soybean stocks estimates, to 110.8 mmt (4.07 bb), before jumping to 127.8 mmt in 2024-25.

WHEAT

After a long winter and spring full of adverse weather challenges, the winter wheat harvest is getting underway across the Northern Hemisphere, and there will be quite a bit for traders to notice in Wednesday's report. NASS will follow its estimates of U.S. winter wheat production in May with a second round in June, estimates that are expected to be a little higher this time around. Dow Jones expects USDA to increase its estimate of winter wheat production from 1.278 bb to 1.307 bb, the highest in five years, if true. Hard red winter wheat production is expected at 724 mb, up from the May estimate of 705 mb. Soft red winter wheat is expected at 353 mb, up from 344 mb. White wheat production is expected to stay close to last month's estimate at 228 mb.

Dow Jones' other estimates have total U.S. wheat production of 1.887 bb in 2024-25, expected to result in 782 mb of U.S. ending wheat stocks in 2024-25, the most in four years. World estimates of wheat production will be more interesting this time around after issues of frost and excess moisture in Europe, coupled with freeze damage in Russia and Ukraine, followed by hot and dry conditions that are still stressing crops around the Black Sea. Last month, USDA estimated Russia's wheat production at 88.0 mmt, or 3.23 bb. This past week, private analyst SovEcon estimated Russia's wheat production at 80.7 mmt, or 2.97 bb, with a risk of lower estimates ahead.

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Join us at 12:30 p.m. CDT on Wednesday, June 12, as we discuss USDA's new estimates and what they mean for crop prices. We are also glad to take questions. For those busy at 12:30 p.m., there will be a link provided to replay the webinar at your convenience, but you need to register. Register here for Wednesday's June WASDE report webinar: https://www.dtn.com/….

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

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