DTN Midday Grain Comments 07/15 10:51

DTN Midday Grain Comments 07/15 10:51 Corn, Soybean, Wheat Futures Lower at Midday Corn futures are 6 to 8 cents lower at midday Monday; soybean futures are 18 to 20 cents lower; wheat futures are 9 to 13 cents lower. David M. Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst MARKET SUMMARY: Corn futures are 6 to 8 cents lower at midday Monday; soybean futures are 18 to 20 cents lower; wheat futures are 9 to 13 cents lower. The U.S. stock market is firmer at midday with the S&P 40 higher. The U.S. Dollar Index is 40 points lower. The interest rate products are mixed. Energy trade has crude .10 lower and natural gas .10 lower. Livestock trade is mostly higher. Precious metals are mixed with gold 19.00 higher. CORN: Corn futures are 6 to 8 cents lower at midday with early lightly mixed trade turning to broad selling across all ags overnight with trade working just off the lows at midday. On the WASDE report, yield was unchanged at 181.0 bushels per acre (bpa) with old-crop carryout at 1.877 billion bushels (bb) versus 2.056 bb expected with new crop at 2.097 bb versus 2.279 bb expected with world stocks little changed at 311.6 million metric tons (mmt) as USDA left South American production virtually unchanged. Ethanol margins should get a boost from corn staying near the lows while driving demand rebounds. Warmer weather looks to fade this week for much of the Corn Belt with moisture staying adequate in the short term. Weekly crop progress is expected to show steady to better conditions and development just ahead of the 5-year average. Basis action should remain sideways into midmonth. Weekly export inspections remained strong at 1.079 mmt. On the September chart, the 20-day moving average at $4.22 is resistance with the recent low at $3.90 3/4 as support with the lower Bollinger Band at $3.76 as the next level down. SOYBEANS: Soybean futures washed out again to fresh lows overnight with a gap lower to start with action 18 to 20 cents lower at midday and broad product weakness as oil gave back a large chunk of recent gains. Meal is 2.50 to 3.50 lower and oil is 30 to 40 points lower. On the report, we saw yield unchanged at 52.0 bpa with old-crop stocks at 345 million bushels (mb) versus 356 mb expected, new-crop at 435 mb versus 444 mb expected with world stocks 127.8 mmt versus 126.9 mmt expected with South American production unchanged. Weather should remain good for crop development in the near term with the weekly report expected to show steady to slightly better conditions, with development just ahead of normal. Weekly export inspections were soft at 168,593 metric tons (mt). Basis should remain mostly steady in the short term with support from spreads. The September chart resistance is at the 20-day moving average at $11.02 with support at the fresh low at $10.36 1/4 scored Monday morning with deeply oversold conditions. WHEAT: Wheat futures are 9 to 13 cents lower at midday with selling pressure after disappointing numbers on the report, broad ag weakness, and selling pressure from Euro values. On the report, all-wheat production was 2.008 bb versus 1.912 bb expected, with carryout at 856 mb versus 758 mb expected, with world stocks rising to 257.2 mmt from 252.3 mmt expected. Winter wheat harvest should be close to 75% complete with spring wheat conditions remaining very good as the crop develops around the 5-year average. Weekly export inspections improved at 533,828 mt. The dollar remains at the bottom end of the range with light strength, while MATIF values gapped down to fresh lows for the move. On the KC September chart, resistance is the 20-day moving average at $5.89, with the fresh low at $5.50 1/4 as support. David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com Follow him on social platform X @davidfiala (c) Copyright 2024 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.