DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

OMAHA (DTN) -- Average retail prices for all eight major fertilizers continued to be lower than last month during the second week of July 2024, according to sellers surveyed by DTN.

Though prices for all fertilizers were down, just two fertilizers saw sizable price declines, which DTN designates as anything 5% or more. Both anhydrous and UAN32 were 6% lower compared to a month earlier. Anhydrous has an average price of $696 per ton, while UAN32 was priced at $378 per ton.

This marks the first time anhydrous has been back below the $700-per-ton level since the second week of September 2023. That week, the price was also $696 per ton.

Prices for the remaining six fertilizers were down just slightly from a month ago. DAP had an average price of $758 per ton, MAP $822/ton, potash $504/ton, urea $507/ton, 10-34-0 $642/ton and UAN28 $339/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.55/lb.N, anhydrous $0.42/lb.N, UAN28 $0.61/lb.N and UAN32 $0.59/lb.N.

In this column, we normally compare current fertilizer prices to what they were one month and one year earlier to see how much prices have moved. Occasionally, I like to look back six months and see how much fertilizer prices have increased or decreased during this short period of time.

The only fertilizer with a significant price difference in this six-month window is anhydrous. The nitrogen fertilizer's average price the second week of January was $776 per ton, while last week, it was $696/ton, which is $80/ton less expensive than six months ago.

Prices for three other fertilizers were slightly lower when comparing the second week of July to the second week of January. Urea was $19/ton cheaper, while UAN32% was $13/ton less expensive and potash was just $6/ton less expensive in the middle of 2024 compared to the beginning of the year.

Prices for the remaining four fertilizers are slightly higher now than they were in January. UAN28 was only $3/ton higher, while MAP was $15/ton more expensive, DAP was $32/ton higher and 10-34-0 was $42/ton was more expensive now than at the beginning of 2024.

With commodity prices falling considerably in recent weeks, it will be interesting to see if retail fertilizer prices also continue to decline and at what rate they fall. We have seen price declines around 5% to 8% this summer. Will these smaller-percentage declines continue, or could we begin to see larger drops -- maybe 10% to 15% -- in late summer into the fall?

Stay tuned to find out.

All fertilizer prices are now lower compared to one year ago. MAP is 1% lower, anhydrous is 5% less expensive, DAP is 7% lower, 10-34-0 is 12% less expensive, UAN28 is 14% lower, urea is 17% lower, potash is 18% less expensive and UAN32 is 19% lower in price compared to a year prior.

DTN gathers fertilizer price bids from agriculture retailers each week to compile the DTN Fertilizer Index. DTN first began reporting data in November 2008.

In addition to national averages, MyDTN subscribers can access the full DTN Fertilizer Index, which includes state averages, here: https://www.mydtn.com/….

A train hauling anhydrous ammonia fertilizer derailed in east-central North Dakota, according to CNN. You can read about it here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

Russ Quinn can be reached at Russ.Quinn@dtn.com

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