MT. JULIET, Tenn. (DTN) -- Illinois' growing season got off to a wet start. Planting got done in windows here and there, sometimes late or in less-than-ideal conditions. June turned hot and dry, raising alarms of a 2023 repeat, only to be assuaged by generous rainfall from several strong weather events that came with a side of hail and a blast of wind. Supportive August weather could give soybeans the boost they need to set new records.
CORN YIELD ESTIMATES
-- DTN: 212 bushels per acre (bpa)
-- USDA: 225 bpa
USDA record: 214 bpa, 2022
SOYBEAN YIELD ESTIMATES
-- DTN: 61.5 bpa
-- USDA: 66 bpa
USDA record: 65 bpa, 2021
Find more about the DTN Yield Estimates here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….
USDA's latest Crop Production report information can be found here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….
MARKET COMMENTS
"The Eastern Corn Belt had a dry start to the growing season, first marked by abnormally dry conditions on the U.S. Drought Monitor on June 18, 2024, but it didn't last long. By mid-July, USDA crop ratings for Illinois were back in the 70s for corn and soybeans and haven't looked back since, helped by numerous rains and mostly moderate summer temperatures," DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman said.
"DTN's Digital Yield Tour corn estimate of 212 bpa may be a bit low, but I currently believe it is better than USDA's August estimate of 225 bpa for Illinois because of the derecho that went through in July and because of the flooding that occurred in the southern part of the state. I have no doubt Illinois has the potential for a 225 bpa corn yield, but I don't think this is the year. For similar reasons, I favor DTN's 61.5 bpa soybean yield estimate for Illinois over USDA's 66.0 bpa estimate."
WEATHER COMMENTS
"There were mostly minor inconveniences in the weather during the season this year, though there were a couple of bigger scares. Wet weather this spring led to some later planting than most would like -- certainly later than last year -- but the planting was done pretty much on par with the five-year average," DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick said.
"But then the crop went through a pretty significant dry stretch in June. It got hot with temperatures in the 90s that quickly evaporated the topsoil, and drought started to creep in, reminiscent of 2023 a bit. But the hot and dry conditions only lasted about one to two weeks and were followed by good rains for the end of June through early August. Another stretch of heat occurred in late July and early August but was bookended by some relatively good showers as well. It's not surprising that crop conditions have maintained very high ratings throughout the season.
"The active weather that has occurred this summer has also led to several severe weather incidents, including hail and localized wind and tornado damage. But the big event was a derecho that moved through the northern two-thirds of the state on July 15. Luckily for Illinois, the derecho was not nearly as powerful as the one that occurred in August of 2020, and came a month earlier, allowing the crop to recover somewhat, but I'd be surprised if there wasn't some noticeable damage due to all the severe weather this year. The state may come in third on the Digital Yield Tour for the number of severe weather reports to the Storm Prediction Center, but there were 984 so far, with 27 days of at least 10 reports, highest in the tour."
OBSERVATIONS
-- Nathan Roux is a FIRST field trial manager who oversees plots across west-central, east-central and northern Illinois. Farmers Independent Research of Seed Technologies (FIRST) provides unbiased corn and soybean variety trials across 15 states. It ran more than 500 tests at 300 locations in 2023. More on FIRST here: https://www.firstseedtests.com/….
Roux plants and harvests the corn and soybean plots at cooperators' farms, who supply all production operations and inputs except seed.
Spring was wet and lasted until May 25. The longest planting window was four days. Crops grew rapidly with good moisture and plentiful heat.
"It's been drastically different in all of my areas," he said. "There have been a lot of different weather patterns."
Several large wind events caused damage at trial plots across east-central Illinois. The worst damage report was in Iroquois County near Watseka, when straight-line winds and hail defoliated 20% of the crop before pollination. Trial plots in McLean County and Marshall County also saw wind damage from that story.
Roux said he's seen a lot of blown-down corn stand back up this season. Some is straight as an arrow and some crook-necked, but the corn is generally upright. Drone footage of one of the field trials -- which are composed of 10-foot-by-40-foot plots of different seed varieties -- highlighted how different corn varieties handled the storms' abuse.
"The resilience of some of these hybrids is impressive," he said.
The west-central region of Illinois "looks beautiful" with timely showers and minimal to no disease pressure. Farms there will likely set new corn yield records.
Yield potential on corn is also strong in northern Illinois, where a consistently rainy pattern kept crops well-watered.
Roux said a 225 bpa average for corn is reasonable in the part of the state he covers, but questions whether it'll hold for the state overall, as USDA believes. The hail and wind damage are widespread but variable. Flooding delayed planting or forced farmers to plant in less-than-ideal conditions.
Soybean yields are likely to be strong this year.
"Another August rain, and they'll throw another pod cluster out there. They look very, very good this year," he said. Disease pressure has been minimal, and he hasn't seen any early SDS, or sudden death syndrome.
-- McLean County, Gibson City. Reid Thompson: "Well, the USDA isn't terribly wrong with yield estimates from Illinois. Our corn looks as good as we've seen it, likely a farm record. We had very consistent emergence and with split-applied nitrogen, very little loss from early rains. Low disease pressure, too.
"Soybeans I think will be good, especially April soybeans. We had some soybeans planted in May that struggled early, but weather in July and August have really helped them catch up. There's a long way to go, but the forecast looks favorable for kernel and pod fill.
"It's likely to be a late harvest. End of September is our goal for corn, October for beans."
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See more Digital Yield Tour Day 1 results from Ohio here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….
Katie Dehlinger can be reached at katie.dehlinger@katie.dehlinger@dtn.com
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