MT. JULIET, Tenn. (DTN) -- Crops planted in a window in late April appear to outshine others in Ohio, where drought lingers on the Corn Belt's eastern fringe. Patchy and highly variable, the corn crop will be unlikely to challenge records, but soybeans could make their case as sunny, warm, wet weather further helps pods fill -- in some cases to the very top of the plant.
CORN YIELD ESTIMATES
-- DTN: 191 bushels per acre (bpa)
-- USDA: 188 bpa
USDA record: 198 bpa, 2023
SOYBEAN YIELD ESTIMATES
-- DTN: 56 bpa
-- USDA: 59 bpa
USDA record: 59 bpa, 2023
Find more about the DTN Yield Estimates here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….
USDA's latest Crop Production report information can be found here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….
MARKET COMMENTS
"The Eastern Corn Belt had a dry start to the growing season," DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman said. "Ohio didn't enjoy as much rain as Illinois and has lower crop ratings but has also been protected by moderate temperatures."
"For Ohio, DTN's Digital Yield Tour estimate of 191 bpa is a little higher than USDA's estimate of 188.0 bpa, both of which are impressive yields for a state with a 62% good-to-excellent corn crop rating. On this one, I lean toward USDA and will be interested to see what USDA's field-based survey in September says. For soybeans in Ohio, DTN's 56.4 bpa estimate and USDA's 59.0 bpa estimate both sound high for a crop with a 59% good-to-excellent rating. Helped by moderate weather in August and rain in this week's forecast, I'll lean toward DTN on this one and go with 57.0 bpa."
WEATHER COMMENTS
"Out of all the primary states on our crop tour, Ohio has had the most significant and consistent drought, but that is in comparison to almost no drought across the majority of the Corn Belt this year," DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick said. "Ohio never broke into D3-extreme drought, though hot and dry conditions in mid-June forced some D1 and eventually D2 drought to appear in July that hasn't gone away yet.
"It just goes to show that getting a crop planted early can really make up for some poorer conditions later down the line. Some areas around the state had some trouble with wet ground in the spring, but the corn and soybean crops both beat out their five-year average planting pace. That helped them to sustain the hotter and drier stretch in June that brought crop conditions down a bit.
"Rains have followed up since then, and even though it hasn't been enough to eliminate the drought across the state, it has been washed out of much of the northern and western portions of the state, areas where production is much higher. At 62% for corn and 59% for soybeans, good-to-excellent ratings are still really high in the state, and very few areas are rated poor or very poor (6% for both corn and soybeans), making this a really good year for potential yields.
"There have been some severe weather events, but not many that were very widespread and damaging. Many of them have been smaller clusters instead of state-wide events. Ohio has had the lowest amount of severe hail reports in the tour, with only 88 reported to the Storm Prediction Center for the whole year, some of them occurring prior to the start of planting. It was also very low in the number of days with at least 10 severe reports at just 15 this year."
OBSERVATIONS
-- Nick Eckel, an Ohio State University Extension educator in Wood County, said the crops in northwest Ohio look good, but don't compare to last year's bumper crop. Corn and soybean planting was slowed down in May because of rain. Eckel, who also farms with his brothers in the county, said he walked 10 cornfields last week and saw yields ranging from 170 bpa to closer to 220 bpa.
"We could see around a 200-bushel average if we get a decent rain," Eckel said.
Right now, the soybeans could use a good dousing as well.
"Soybean production is a little behind right now with growth stages anywhere from R-3 to R-5. We have decent nodes. We've got anywhere from 18-19 nodes on our early planted soybeans, all the way to 13 nodes on our later-planted ones entering R-3. What we need right now is a good rain to finish off some of those early beans that were planted in the middle of May."
Overall, Eckel estimates soybean yields in Wood County will come in around 50 bpa, down about 5 bpa from last year's crop.
Disease pressures in Wood County also have been fairly low. Tar spot in corn has not been an issue other than a few fields, and fungicide application has been limited. The one insect that has popped up in the past couple of weeks has been corn aphids on some stressed fields.
"You don't know if it is going to affect yield, but I think it might," Eckel said.
-- Luke Garrabrant, who farms northeast of Columbus near Johnstown, Ohio, credits a bold move to plant his entire corn and soybean crop during a four-day late April window for this year's prospects. He was done by April 31, which is among the earliest he's ever finished. A lot of the crops mudded-in in May struggled.
Plant stands are great, but his farm has received 8 inches less rainfall than average and that's led to smaller ears that are 14-16 kernel rows around and 30 kernels long.
Garrabrant said those estimates seem high considering his county averages 185- to 190-bpa corn and has a wide mix soil quality.
"It's all over the place this year on corn. Weather has been very spotty," he said. "I will say -- I don't know how the rest of the country or state looks -- but we really could have record beans on our farm this year."
Weather for pod fill has been full of sunshine, compared to last year's smoke, with warm temperatures and timely rains.
"Normally, you don't see pods poking through the top of the canopy when you're walking a field, but they look like they're filling pods clear to the top of the plant," Garrabrant said.
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-- See more Digital Yield Tour Day 1 results from Illinois here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….
Katie Dehlinger can be reached at katie.dehlinger@dtn.com
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