MT. JULIET, Tenn. (DTN) -- Most of South Dakota missed severe, crop-damaging weather this summer, yet benefited from consistent rainfall associated with this summer's active weather pattern over the Western Corn Belt. Limited heat stress helped plants thrive through pollination, but now it's bleeding into concerns that it's going to take longer for the crop to reach maturity, a risk in a northern climate where early frosts are a real risk.
CORN YIELD ESTIMATES
-- DTN: 167 bpa
-- USDA: 162 bpa
USDA record: 162 bpa, 2020
SOYBEAN YIELD ESTIMATES
-- DTN: 50.1 bpa
-- USDA: 47 bpa
USDA record: 49.5, 2016
Results for all states covered by the tour can be found here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….
Find more about the DTN Yield Estimates here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….
USDA's latest Crop Production report information can be found here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….
MARKET COMMENTS
"The Digital Yield Tour's corn yield estimates of 167 bpa for South Dakota is reasonable with crops enjoying good soil moisture," DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman said. "Production would have been higher, if not for June flooding in southeastern South Dakota and several incidents of severe weather and hail hurting crops this year."
"Except for June flooding and some hits from hail, South Dakota has had very good weather this year, but the yield tour's 50.1-bpa estimate for South Dakota sounds high to me. In this case, I think USDA has the better estimate of 47.0 bpa for South Dakota soybeans, but it's still a high estimate for the state. It will be interesting to see what USDA's September estimates say."
WEATHER COMMENTS
"Like a lot of the northwestern Corn Belt, South Dakota was in the midst of some drought and soil moisture deficits to start off the year," DTN Meteorologist John Baranick said. "A non-existent snowpack didn't help things either. But the rains started up early this spring and haven't quit since, coming at regular intervals and without much heat stress. Some hot stretches occurred, of course, but they were few and short-lived. That sets up the state for some good yield potential this year. The rainfall has been heavy at times, though, and the far southeastern corner endured some significant flooding in June that caused damage around the Big Sioux River. But the majority of the corn and soybean acres found some pretty good conditions overall.
"South Dakota may not have had as many tornadoes as they usually do -- there have only been five reported so far all year -- but severe weather was pretty constant in the active pattern. Many wind and hail reports could have caused some damage to portions of the crop, but the vast majority of the reports have come west of the Missouri River, where production is much lower. The more eastern sections of the state have seen very little severe weather to date, actually," he said.
OBSERVATIONS
Tregg Cronin is in the midst of wheat harvest on his Gettysburg, South Dakota, farm.
"We had an excellent May; stands were good across all the crops. June was the most perfect I can ever remember, which is why we're harvesting one of the best wheat crops in a while. It was a cool, wet June, which is big for wheat. The corn was a little delayed, and for a while, there was worry that we might be combining (corn and soybeans) through Christmas. But I think we'll be OK."
There was a little hot and dry weather at the end of July, but not enough to complain about.
"If we don't have any bad weather on the back end, we should be looking at some really great crop yields," Cronin said. "Corn and soybeans are still about one to two weeks behind, so we do need an extended fall. If we were to have an early killing freeze in September or early October, that would not be good."
He's checked in on crops in North Dakota and western Minnesota and says those areas in general are in the same shape. "Their crop went in late, so crops in those areas still have some work to do. But we won't know how that turns out until harvest. I say worry about what's in front of you," which at the moment is getting the big wheat crop in.
Storage is going to be the big issue in his area. "We have this big wheat crop; things look good for corn and soybeans. So, the challenge is where we go with all of it. I suspect late this fall you'll see piles of all kinds in every direction."
Because of the delayed maturity and wheat harvest, Cronin has yet to get into the field to do yield checks, but as long as there's no poor finish to the season, "We'll be 10%-15% above our APH on just about everything. If we're not, it will be a pretty big disappointment."
Cronin does see lower crop prices ahead given the overall U.S. corn and soybean crop expectations. "I think we're heading into another two- to four-year overproduction cycle. You're seeing a lot of working capital erosion, so that's going to be tough for farmers who aren't prepared for it."
He was not at all surprised by USDA's numbers in the August WASDE report.
"There is some conspiracy talk that since this WASDE includes farmer surveys, everyone thought 'You're expecting a big crop, I'll show you a big crop' and put down inflated numbers. I think it's pretty hard to get 30,000-40,000 farmers to go along with something like that. We're just looking at a big crop, and we'll have to work through it."
Greg Horstmeier contributed to this report.
Katie Dehlinger can be reached at katie.dehlinger@dtn.com
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