MT. JULIET, Tenn. (DTN) -- Indiana's corn and soybean crops may set back-to-back yield records in 2024, but much depends on the pivotal grain- and pod-filling phase. County corn yield averages could top 200 bushels per acre (bpa) in 24 counties, mostly in west-central Indiana, according to DTN data. In other parts of the state, planting date could be a determining factor, especially for soybeans.
CORN YIELD ESTIMATES
-- DTN: 196 bpa
-- USDA: 207 bpa
-- 2023: 203 bpa
-- USDA record: 203 bpa, 2023
SOYBEAN YIELD ESTIMATES
-- DTN: 59 bpa
-- USDA: 62 bpa
-- 2023: 61 bpa
-- USDA record: 61 bpa, 2023
Digital Yield Tour results for all states can be found here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….
MARKET COMMENTS
DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman said Indiana shows 69% good-to-excellent ratings from USDA.
"Indiana had a dry start that was rescued by rain in July and has had the benefit of more moderate temperatures. For Indiana, DTN's 196-bpa estimate looks low, but I'm not ready to accept USDA's 207-bpa estimate until USDA gets in the fields in September," he said.
"I think USDA is correct that Indiana could have a 62-bpa soybean yield and, again, will be interested to see if the estimate holds up in September."
WEATHER COMMENTS
Like most of the Corn Belt states, Indiana has had favorable weather for most of the season, DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick said.
"Regular rain in the spring left most of the state with good soil moisture. A hot and dry stretch in June was not ideal, but the crop weathered that well and was followed up by more good rain," he said.
"Dryness over the last seven to 10 days in the south and west hasn't been ideal either, but of course, that's being followed up by another good shot of rain, and temperatures have been mild. Such has been the case for Indiana -- hot and dry stretches have been few and far between, leaving the state with good chances at good yields."
While the weather pattern has been active, there hasn't been as much severe weather.
"There was a derecho that moved through July 15, which had the greatest severe weather reports since early May, but that derecho was diminishing as it moved into the state, and reports were not as widespread as they were in Iowa or Illinois. Much of the tornadic activity this year was focused on the southwestern tail of the state, and most of them came in May or earlier, when they could do less damage to crops. In all, Indiana had the third-lowest reports of severe weather to the Storm Prediction Center of the nine states we are following this year."
OBSERVATIONS
Scott Wallis' planting season was 76 days long. He farms near Princeton in southern Indiana, where the farm covers everything from hilltops to river bottom, as well as across the border in Illinois.
"The crop is probably better than it deserves to be. I don't think it's as good as everybody else on our farm thinks it is," he said. Wallis farms with his son and son-in-law. "I'm the old guy, so it's kind of my job."
He thinks overall corn yields on his farm will be 10%-15% below average, somewhere in the 215-220 bpa range. His son thinks the farm could make 225-230 bpa.
"Our April corn kernel count is down about 10%, but we're having fabulous weather to make huge kernels. So, we'll just have to see," he said. On Tuesday, Wallis walked into his best cornfield. It set a record in 2021 at 289 bpa, but he thinks it'll likely yield closer to 250 bpa this year.
"I'm not saying it's bad corn," he said. Rather, after several good crops in a row, the farm's five-year average has risen to 230 bpa. Expectations are higher.
Wallis said his soybeans look good, but staggered plantings from March 28 to June 8 mean yield potential is all over the board. His March beans could yield 90 bpa or more, while beans planted in April and early May could make high-70s. The 800 acres or so that went in late May and early June could yield in the high 60s.
Last year, soybean yields set a farm record at 83 bpa on average. That pulls the farm's five-year average up to 74 bpa. "I'd be willing to take people out to a steak dinner if we hit our five-year average," he said.
Find more about the DTN Yield Estimates here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….
USDA's latest Crop Production report information can be found here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….
Katie Dehlinger can be reached at katie.dehlinger@dtn.com
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