MT. JULIET, Tenn. (DTN) -- Iowa pulled itself out of drought and into a record corn crop, if the DTN Digital Yield Tour estimates hold true. An active rainy pattern settled over the state this spring, and while it slowed planting season down, most areas benefitted from the replenishing rainfall. Parts of the state's northwest received too much rain and suffered from flooding and ponding issues.
CORN YIELD ESTIMATES
-- DTN: 205 bushels per acre (bpa)
-- USDA: 209 bpa
USDA record: 204 bpa, 2021
SOYBEAN YIELD ESTIMATES
-- DTN: 59.4 bpa
-- USDA: 61 bpa
USDA record: 63 bpa, 2021
Results for all states covered by the tour can be found here: https://www.dtnpf.com/…
Find more about the DTN Yield Estimates here: https://www.dtnpf.com/…
USDA's latest Crop Production report information can be found here: https://www.dtnpf.com/…
MARKET COMMENTS
"The Digital Yield Tour's corn yield estimate of 205 bpa for Iowa is reasonable, with crops enjoying good soil moisture," DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman said. "Production would have been higher, if not for June flooding in southeastern South Dakota and northwestern Iowa. Both states have also seen several incidents of severe weather and hail hurting crops this year.
"DTN's soybean yield estimate of 59.4 bpa for Iowa appears reasonable at first glance, but I have to say USDA's estimate of 61.0 bpa for Iowa may prove correct. Crop conditions look much better in Iowa this year, thanks to better soil moisture, and there is more rain expected this week. Earlier hits from severe weather were the only blemishes on a very good crop season."
WEATHER COMMENTS
"Iowa has been in a very interesting spot this year," DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick said. "Coming off of four straight years of drought-affected yields, widespread long-duration drought was situated over the state this spring, and deficits were incredibly large. Some areas were behind by 12-15 inches over the last four years. But the wet weather started in earnest this spring, and the active pattern never really quit in the state. The state has not really gone through long stretches of dryness this season, and soil moisture has been abundant for the duration of the crop's development. Drought was completely wiped off the map May 28 and hasn't returned.
"However, there were several periods of very heavy rainfall across the north and that undoubtedly left some areas washed out or with uneven stands. Far northwestern counties endured 15-18 inches of rain from a single storm in June that left all sorts of damage in the area. Many other events over 3 inches have occurred across the north this season as well. Heavy rain in other portions of the state likely came at a more spread-out pace, allowing much of the state to recover and set up for really good yields.
"To go along with the active weather, severe storms have been a constant feature as well. One hundred twenty-nine tornadoes have been reported in the state so far this year to go along with the third-most hail reports in our nine-state tour. The most significant event was a derecho that developed over the eastern portions of the state on July 15. Luckily, in this state, this derecho was not as severe as the one that moved through in August 2020, hit less of the state, and came a month earlier, allowing crops more time to recover."
OBSERVATIONS
-- Corey Rozenboom is a FIRST manager located in O'Brien County, Iowa.
"It's been the wettest year on record from April through June, so that caused planting delays and replant situations that we've never really had to encounter before. A lot of corn that was planted during the third and fourth weeks of April, which is usually our ideal planting dates, had to be replanted because it either sat in the wet, saturated ground and rotted, or it got crusted over and couldn't break through. So, it resulted in a lot of poor stands. Growers had to make a decision to replant or leave it, and it was about half and half."
Lots of corn went in the second and third weeks of May, and while it doesn't look bad now, the plants have shallow root systems and are dealing with nitrogen deficiencies.
"Some of those are corrected with side dressing, but it's going to be a crop that's probably going to be way off what it was last year. Of course, in 2023, we had record corn yields," he said.
"Most growers are electing not to spray fungicides because the crop condition is poor enough that the feeling is the extra applications aren't worth the extra yield."
Rozenboom's main concern between now and harvest for the corn is water. If it dries off, it could lead to shallow kernels and lower test weight. While he hasn't done any yield checks yet, he's estimating corn yield will flirt with the lower edge of APH yields, which he described as being in the 170 bpa to 180 bpa range.
Soybeans don't show the impact of delayed planting nearly as much as corn.
"Growers are dealing with the normal things. There's white mold in some areas. Aphids are showing up in northwest Iowa, so fields are getting sprayed for those. Herbicides have been challenged with all the wet weather.
Rozenboom is expecting soybean yields in the upper 50 bpa to 60 bpa range.
-- Ben Riensche, Jesup, Iowa: "Last year it was far worse than reported in my area. This year I'm in the Garden of Eden. We had a close call with a near-Derecho windstorm, but Trump's ear got hurt more than my corn ears!
"Yields will surpass state here, could be 50-75 bushels above last year on corn, 20-25 better on soy. I will be disappointed if we do not harvest all field sum totals over 220/60. Yes, everyone else will get 250/70, but my numbers are honest."
-- Marty VanVliet of Pella, Iowa, said the weather has been what has made for good growing conditions this year. Even with early dry conditions, followed by a two-week break from planting due to rainy and cold weather, both corn and soybeans were in the ground by the end of May.
"Our weather conditions have been almost ideal since planting, with rain coming when we need it," he said. "We expect to have higher yields than we've had in a few years as long as everything continues to go right. We haven't even seen much trouble with nitrogen deficiency or other disease pressure."
He expects to start harvest by the end of August with corn yielding over 200 bushels per acre and soybeans in the 60-bushel-per-acre range.
-- Kirk Brandt, of Corning, Iowa, in the southwest part of the state, said planting started on time in April but was put on hold for about two weeks due to rain and colder conditions.
"We were planting crops in wet soils and have seen some issues with that in the sandy soils," he said. "We have had great crops the last three years, unlike other areas of the state, and now we have had challenges."
Brandt planted soybeans first, and they look to yield about 60 bushels per acre. Corn has had a bit more challenging growing season, and he expects 175 bushels per acre, when the last three years have been 200 to 210 bpa.
Chris Clayton and Jennifer Carrico contributed to this report.
Katie Dehlinger can be reached at katie.dehlinger@dtn.com
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