By Katie Dehlinger, DTN Farm Business Editor, and Chris Clayton, DTN Ag Policy Editor
MT. JULIET, Tenn. (DTN) -- Minnesota entered the year with a moisture deficit but has spent most of the season battling a surplus. When more than 10 inches of rain fell on saturated soils in early summer, the devastating floods in July drew national headlines. Abundant moisture shows up in uneven stands and abandoned fields, in fields with shorter corn in the dips and in varying shades of green.
CORN YIELD ESTIMATES
-- DTN: 187 bushels per acre (bpa)
-- USDA: 185 bpa
USDA record: 195 bpa, 2022
SOYBEAN YIELD ESTIMATES
-- DTN: 51.4 bpa
-- USDA: 49 bpa
USDA record: 52 bpa, 2016
Results for all states covered by the tour can be found here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….
Find more about the DTN Yield Estimates here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….
USDA's latest Crop Production report information can be found here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….
MARKET COMMENTS
"I'll be curious to see how the DYT's 187-bpa corn estimate holds up against USDA's field-based yield estimate in September," DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman said. "Even before July flooding took place across southern Minnesota, fields had already been too wet to plant or replant, and surplus topsoil moisture stayed high across southern Minnesota for weeks after the flooding. I suspect a yield in the low 180s might be more accurate, if harvested acres were held constant. USDA has already reduced Minnesota's estimate of harvested corn acres by 530,000 from last year, but I have to wonder if more will be trimmed.
"The Digital Yield Tour's soybean yield estimate of 51.4 bpa for Minnesota is reasonable," he said.
WEATHER COMMENTS
"Wet doesn't really begin to describe what has gone on in the bulk of Minnesota this year," DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick said. "Leftover drought and an overall lack of snowfall left the state in some questionable conditions to start the year. But the rains started early and haven't really quit. That includes torrential rain in June that brought up to 16 inches in some spots over a few days. Successive rains from a very active summer pattern haven't allowed areas to really recover from all the wetness and flooding.
"In my short trips around the southern half of the state this summer, you see just about everything: abandoned fields, uneven stands, mostly good fields with some pockets of shorter crops in the dips, fields that just look amazing. It really seemed to depend on just how much rain, when planting occurred, how much drainage fields have, and the topography of the area," he said.
"Despite all the active weather, severe storms have not been as common as in other states in the tour. Minnesota actually has the second-fewest reports to the Storm Prediction Center of the nine states we are following, including the lowest total wind damage reports. Some damage due to wind and hail has been noted in the state this year, but the main concern has been the excess water."
OBSERVATIONS
Overall, producers and others described Minnesota crops as "uneven" at Minnesota Farmfest last week.
Coming out of three years of drought, some counties are tracking with their wettest year on record in 2024. Parts of southern Minnesota got caught in a stretch in June with 13 to 15 inches in some areas, causing heavy flooding of lowland farm fields.
"We've got some holes in corn where they stood in the water for too long," said Bruce Potter, an integrated pest management specialist at University of Minnesota Extension. "We've got some stunted plants. We're going to be pretty uneven. Some of those corn yields grown in lighter soils are looking much better, but we've got a lot of heavy clay loam. Those are struggling a lot more with ponded water."
Potter added, "It's going to be one of those years where you've got no bushels, and you have got 250 bushels all on the same field."
Minnesota also will have higher-than-normal prevented planting acres. Thom Petersen, the state's agricultural commissioner, reported roughly 460,000 acres were not able to get planted this spring. "That's pretty significant for us," Petersen said. "And you can see a lot in my area of east-central Minnesota. Farmers are having to get into those fields and plow them or plant a cover crop. So, you are seeing more of those fields across the state."
Gail Donkers, who farms near Faribault, Minnesota -- about 40 miles south of Minneapolis -- said her crops simply look "horrible." The corn, soybeans and alfalfa "are probably the worst I've seen in my life." Donkers added, "In our area, we just can't pull away our moisture enough. The fields are super uneven. You can tell where the tile lines are and that type of thing. Our soybeans are going to mature late, and I think they are going to be extremely uneven."
In other areas, the rain also brought relief. Greg Burau, who farms near Fergus Falls in western Minnesota, said his crops look "amazing" coming out of three years of drought. "West-central Minnesota has been very dry. This year we had more than adequate rainfall, so the crops look really, really good."
Chris Clayton contributed to this report.
Katie Dehlinger can be reached at katie.dehlinger@dtn.com
Follow her on social platform X at @KatieD_DTN
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