By Katie Dehlinger, DTN Farm Business Editor, and Susan Payne, DTN Young Farmers Editor
MT. JULIET, Tenn. (DTN) -- Wisconsin farmers are hoping frost holds off long enough for crops to mature, the result of a wet spring season full of delays and cool summer temperatures slowing crop development. If it does, DTN's Digital Yield Tour anticipates record corn yields in Wisconsin, while soybeans yields are expected to be just shy of record.
CORN YIELD ESTIMATES
-- DTN: 183 bpa
-- USDA: 183 bpa
-- 2023: 176 bpa
-- USDA record: 180 bpa, 2022 & 2021
SOYBEAN YIELD ESTIMATES
-- DTN: 54.4 bpa
-- USDA: 53 bpa
-- USDA record: 55, 2021 & 2016
Digital Yield Tour results for all states can be found here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….
MARKET COMMENTS
"Wisconsin, like Minnesota, had its share of too much rain early in the growing season," DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman said. USDA currently has good-to-excellent crop ratings at 63% for Wisconsin.
"I don't expect Wisconsin to achieve the 183 bpa estimate that DTN and USDA both have for the state this season. Maybe 175 for Wisconsin makes more sense," he said.
WEATHER COMMENTS
It's hard to remember, but Wisconsin, like Minnesota, started the year in a drought with limited snow cover.
"But consistent rains starting in March and continuing afterward eliminated a lot of that drought by the end of April," he said. "The ample soil moisture has been great for growth, but troublesome in some areas for getting planted. The issues in this state have not been as dramatic as the flooding that occurred to its west, but heavy rain has had a negative impact in some parts of the state. What the state has lacked is a lot of heat. Very few days in the 90s have been recorded, though temperatures have generally been above normal, and growing degree days are near or even slightly above normal.
"Wisconsin had the fewest severe weather reports to the Storm Prediction Center out of the nine states we are following in the tour this year with by far the lowest amount of damaging wind reports. There have been a couple of stronger events like the derecho that skirted the far southern portions of the state on July 15, but Wisconsin has also had the fewest days of more than 10 reports with only 11 so far this entire year."
OBSERVATIONS
Brad Laack raises corn, soybeans, winter wheat and alfalfa in Sheboygan Falls, Wisconsin, and this spring, he had to claim prevent plant on nearly a third of his farm. A lot of farmers opted out of corn when it got too wet, and the shortage of corn acres could cause his local dairies to hunt for their feed needs.
"The corn that is in does look very good. It looked very marginal for a while, but it has come around, and the soybeans do look well," Laack said, adding that the crop needs a full growing season. An early frost would add insult to injury.
If the weather cooperates, soybeans could average 50 bpa.
Josh Hiemstra, who also farms in east-central Wisconsin near Brandon, farms 800 acres of row crops in addition to milking 150 Holstein and breeding Angus-Holstein cross cattle. He also plants vegetable crops for the local cannery.
He'd peg his best field of corn at 250 bpa, but it could range from 230 bpa to 280 bpa, depending on how the kernels fill.
"I've got some corn that I know is going to be 170-bushel corn, so I'm expecting a farm average of probably 215," Hiemstra said. "Even last year with the dry weather, our farm consistently averages over 200 bpa."
Tall corn makes great silage, but August is known for severe weather, and tall corn falls hard.
Crops look really good in some spots, but he thinks USDA's estimates are too high. Crops "don't have a very good root system this year because of the weather. The roots haven't had to go down," he said. Combined with the overall lack of heat units, "I just feel they're not going to have kernels, and the soybeans aren't going to be as packed full of energy, and the weights are going to be down. And I think that's going to pull the overall yield down."
Then there are acreage reductions for drowned-out, replanted, prevented planting and mudded-in ground. "I'm not going to say it's going to be horrible, but I just don't think when the number comes in, that yield is going to be there. I tend to think it's going to be 180 bpa on corn and 51 bpa (on soybeans)."
Where Kyle Nilsestuen farms in western Wisconsin's Trempealeau County, Arcadia, the never-ending rain has been a stick in the eye. They started April staring down a drought, but by mid-April, the rains came so frequently there were only a few good planting windows, and the rest were subprime. But it kept raining.
"The roots are very shallow-running it seems," he said, adding that a 10-day stretch with no rain and some heat caused stress. "The corn is very touchy, very variable because of everything.
"I've looked at a lot of my corn: We'll walk through some garden spots and fields, and it just looks tremendous. And then we'll go 30 feet, 100 feet, and we're suddenly walking in corn that's yellowing on the bottom, and the cobs are not nearly as nice," he said.
"I'm happy for what we've had for the year, but I'm not going out and screaming from the treetops that we're going to have a record crop. Last year, we had a phenomenal corn crop. But this year, it's going to be down to management and planting dates no matter what we did."
Soybeans look good, with early and on-time-planted soybeans looking tall with good pods. They're done flowering, which should allow for early harvest and wheat planting. Later-planted soybeans still have flowers up top as well as a few new leaves.
"I'm encouraged that it might be a good crop of beans, as long as they don't fall down in a heavy rain in September," Nilsestuen said.
Find more about the DTN Yield Estimates here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….
USDA's latest Crop Production report information can be found here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….
Katie Dehlinger can be reached at katie.dehlinger@dtn.com
Follow her on social platform X at @KatieD_DTN
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