By Katie Dehlinger, DTN Farm Business Editor, and Jason Jenkins, DTN Crops Editor
MT. JULIET, Tenn. (DTN) -- Springtime moisture pulled Missouri out of some long-term deficits and, while conditions have been widely beneficial, the state has dealt with the most severe weather of any in the DTN Digital Yield Tour. Unlike other areas, Missouri growers report a crop that's more advanced and closer to harvest. But after a "Goldilocks" summer, did it grow too fast to max out?
CORN YIELD ESTIMATES
-- DTN: 170 bushels per acre (bpa)
-- USDA: 181 bpa
-- USDA record: 181 bpa, 2023
SOYBEAN YIELD ESTIMATES
-- DTN: 49.7 bpa
-- USDA: 51 bpa
-- USDA record: 51, 2020
Digital Yield Tour results for all states can be found here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….
MARKET COMMENTS
"Missouri had a good balance of beneficial rains to give crops a boost," DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman said. "That's why USDA's good-to-excellent corn crop rating is 81%. For Missouri, I'll split the difference between DTN's 170 bpa and USDA's 181 bpa and go with 176 bpa for now."
"Yield estimates for DTN and USDA are close for Missouri, which is having good weather this year and moderate temperatures in August. I'll tip this choice to USDA's 51 bpa for soybeans."
WEATHER COMMENTS
"Missouri started out with areas of drought coming off of a pretty active winter," DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick said. "Rainfall was able to ease the extreme to exceptional drought, but pockets of long-term deficits remained. It was nice to see that much of the spring and summer were good to the state, eventually eliminating all drought in the state in late May and keeping most of it out the rest of the season.
"There was a stretch in June that was particularly hot and mostly dry, and drought reemerged over a small area in the north, but that was followed by good weather and was quickly eliminated once again," he said.
"Late July and early August have been a little less active with the precipitation, and higher with temperatures too, but just this week, the state saw a return to consistent rain, being very timely for a lot of the state's filling corn and beans. Growing degree days have far outpaced the average with northern areas 150-250 above normal and the Bootheel area 300-400 above normal. The rapid growth may have limited the potential a bit during some of those drier stretches. And if not for the severe storms, the state would likely boast much better yields. It should still be much better than last year for sure.
"The state has been marred by significant bouts of severe weather, however. Missouri was on the edge of a derecho in early April that moved through the Ohio Valley, saw a string of severe weather events in early and then late May, and more scattered events in June and July as well. Missouri has the most severe weather reports to the Storm Prediction Center in our nine-state tour with a total of 1,232 reports for the year. The vast majority of those happened after April 15 when it would be damaging to planted corn and beans. The state saw the most wind damage reports by far with 719 as well as the most hail reports with 416, 82 of those being over 2 inches, also the most on the tour."
OBSERVATIONS
-- Bill Schelp, FIRST manager, Columbia, Missouri
Schelp oversees yield trials with cooperating farmers across the northern half of Missouri -- from St. Joseph along the Missouri River in the west to Portage Des Sioux not far from the confluence of the Mississippi and Missouri rivers in the east. Overall, he said the potential exists for a good to excellent crop for most Show-Me State farmers where he works.
"The majority of this crop went in very timely and has never been significantly drought stressed," he said. "To me, the corn looks good, and the beans look great. I haven't seen a lot of disease or insect pressure."
The ground was unusually fit, dry and warm heading into April across much of the state. The conditions allowed some farmers to plant corn in late March with most planters rolling on corn before the second week of April. In some cases, farmers had all the corn -- and even a few beans -- planted before the calendar turned to May, Schelp said. A few weeks of rain in late April and early May delayed planting for some, leading to some inconsistent emergence and uneven stands with lower final plant populations. However, timely rains continued to fall across northern Missouri through June and into early July, with rainfall accumulation trending toward average or slightly above.
"By the first week of August, we started getting dry, and crops were getting thirsty and showing some signs of potential stress in some areas," he said. "But now in the past week, we've had more timely rains and cooler temperatures that have eased a lot of concerns."
Schelp noted that he observed some green snap near Maryville in northwest Missouri. Flooding along the Missouri River also caused concern that the plots near St. Joseph might go underwater. "The levies held, but that root zone was saturated for a time, and we don't know exactly how that will affect yield," he added.
While he hadn't calculated any estimates, Schelp pulled a couple ears from a farm in central Missouri this week. "I was seeing full ears without any tip back to speak of," he said. "The crop was at half milk line. There's a lot of season left, especially for the soybeans."
-- Trent Haggard, Dunklin County, Missouri
Haggard was preparing to harvest his first corn of 2024 when he spoke to DTN by phone on Aug. 15. As was the case in northern Missouri, the state's southeast Bootheel region also got a head start this season.
"We were doing things two to three weeks earlier than normal," Haggard said. "We planted earlier, and now we're harvesting earlier. It's been nonstop and going fast all year."
The season began with decent rainfall, Haggard said, but by June, things turned dry and hot for quite a while. The promise of rains from the remnants of Hurricane Beryl in early July didn't materialize over Haggard's farms.
"I don't know exactly how that's going to impact yield," he said of the lack of rain-fed moisture. "As far as filling out pods and ears, I think we lost some of our yield potential. We've been irrigating like crazy."
While corn in the Bootheel was ready for harvest, soybeans still have a little while to go. Haggard felt like his soybeans had put on a lot of pods but hadn't yet filled them. His dryland soybeans and his "rice beans," those grown in fields that are flooded for rice production, were still in need of rainfall.
"I don't like to put water to the rice beans because you risk getting a rain event behind it, and when they're young, you could just cook them," he said. "But we did it anyway about two weeks ago because they needed the water. We had to take the risk."
Despite the lack of rainfall, Haggard said the season overall has been mostly without issue -- no green snap due to severe weather, no appreciable disease pressure. The prevalence of irrigation across the Bootheel mitigates much of the water concerns, leaving him to believe that yields in the region will be on the high side of DTN average yield estimates.
"Through the windshield, I would say the rice, corn, beans, peanuts, cotton all look to be average to above average, probably more to the above average in appearance," he said. "But a horse can look really great until it crosses the finish line last, so you don't really ever know until you conclude harvest."
-- Zach Grossman, Carroll County, Missouri
Grossman farms with his father and brother in northern Carroll and southern Livingston counties in northwest Missouri. This spring, fit planting conditions allowed them to get all of their corn and half of their soybeans in by mid-April. Then, rains came that kept the planters parked for two to three weeks. They finished up soybean planting by mid to late May.
"For us, it's been a 'Goldilocks' type of summer," Grossman told DTN on Aug. 13. "Not too hot, not too cold. Not too wet, not too dry. We've received timely rains all the way through the summer, including another nice, slow 1-inch rain on Monday (Aug. 12) that should pretty well take the soybeans on out."
Grossman concurred with the DTN yield estimates, saying that he believed they were conservative but fair estimates for this point in the season.
"There's a great-looking yield prospect out there across the board on the corn and soybean all across my region," he said. "Just wish I could say the same for the markets."
Grossman added that they've had a little tar spot in corn, so they've been keeping a real close eye out for it.
"We applied fungicide to nearly every acre of corn, which I'm sure helped," he said. "We still had some instances of it, though I'm not sure how much, if any, yield effect it will have. Soybeans are staying clean thus far with no diseases scouted yet, but we applied fungicide to a majority of those acres, too."
-- Alex Oberreuter, Putnam County, Missouri
"We're suffering from drought. Our corn yield checks have been 120-165 bpa depending on the farm itself. Corn is in the dent stage already, with one ear per plant. We are averaging 12-14 rows per ear, with definite twisting due to drought. Pollination issues are apparent with many ears at 65%-80% pollination.
"Soybeans are at full bloom stage here, with no way to do a yield check yet. All light spots in the field are turning white, as they are out of water. Planting was later than normal, and the fields are very uneven. Many seeds laid in dry dirt, up to 38 days after planting. For reference, we are not mowing lawns here, as they are all burned up from drought."
Find more about the DTN Yield Estimates here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….
USDA's latest Crop Production report information can be found here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….
Katie Dehlinger can be reached at katie.dehlinger@dtn.com
Follow her on social platform X at @KatieD_DTN
(c) Copyright 2024 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.