By Katie Dehlinger, DTN Farm Business Editor, and Russ Quinn, DTN Staff Reporter
MT. JULIET, Tenn. (DTN) -- An active moisture pattern recharged Nebraska soil moisture, sending the 2024 corn crop off to a great start with record potential. But that same active pattern drowned parts of the state in June and hammered others with hail in July, leaving behind an array of crop damage and yield losses. Nearly half of Nebraska's counties -- 41 in all -- have yield estimates above 200 bushels per acre.
CORN YIELD ESTIMATES
-- DTN: 198 bushels per acre (bpa)
-- USDA: 194 bpa
-- USDA record: 194 bpa, 2021
SOYBEAN YIELD ESTIMATES
-- DTN: 61.8 bpa
-- USDA: 59 bpa
-- USDA record: 63, 2021
Digital Yield Tour results for all states can be found here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….
MARKET COMMENTS
"Nebraska corn shows 69% good-to-excellent ratings from USDA. Nebraska had a lot of severe weather earlier in the season, big areas of damaging hail and flooding along the Missouri River in late June," DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman said. "I tend to think DTN's corn yield estimate of 198 bpa for Nebraska is probably close but could be a little high. For soybeans, DTN's 61.8-bpa soybean yield estimate is aggressive and, given Nebraska's past yields, I'm more comfortable with USDA's estimate of 59 bpa."
WEATHER COMMENTS
"The weather sure has been wild across Nebraska this year," DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick said. "It usually is anyway, but even by Nebraska standards, it has been a very consistently chaotic pattern."
For the most part, that's to growers' benefit.
"The winter and spring were pretty active seasons, and it never really let up during the summer," he said. "Usually, the state goes through some very hot and dry stretches in June, July and especially August, but that just hasn't been the case. Long-term drought was eliminated in the southeast corner of the state in May, and only patchy dryness has occurred since then."
Stretches of temperatures in the mid to upper 90s and 100s were uncommonly limited this summer.
"Grand Island, in the middle of the state, averages 14 days of daytime highs of at least 95 degrees from June through August. But so far, there have only been eight of them," Baranick said. "Cooler temperatures through much of July and into early August have been a blessing during those critical pollination periods. Soybeans are enjoying the wetter and cooler conditions here now as they set pods.
"The active weather has meant a lot of organized severe weather. Nebraska had the second-highest reports to the Storm Prediction Center on our nine-state tour, clocking in with a total of 1,005 reports. Nebraska led the way in tornadoes with 131 and was second only to Missouri in hail with 348 reports. The hail has been a killer for Nebraska the last few years. Being in the 'hail alley' from Nebraska to north Texas doesn't help. But the amount of large hail events has been spread out from May through the first half of July. Much of that hail, and especially the really large stones over 2 inches in diameter, came along the I-80 corridor, some of the highest-production spots in the state."
OBSERVATIONS
-- The 2024 growing season started well in Kearney and Franklin counties in south-central Nebraska, according to Joel Grams. The Minden, Nebraska, farmer told DTN there was plenty of moisture this spring and summer, no major planting delays and recharged subsoil.
Things changed with a July 6 hailstorm that damaged crops across several counties in the fertile Platte River Valley.
Grams said he had some fields affected by hail near the village of Upland, including a seed corn field the seed company is going to abandon.
A large area west and north of Minden saw a couple different hailstorms along with some high winds, which caused some green snap in corn. Another nearby town, Heartwell, had multiple hailstorms.
As far as yields are concerned, Grams believes corn and soybean yields in his area will vary depending on whether they saw hail or not.
"Cornfields that didn't get hit should be average to above average, and the fields that get the hail, I would probably say they will have 40% to 60% of average," Grams said.
It is also difficult to assess what soybean yields could be in the region. The July 6 hailstorm was the last time the area saw any significant moisture. Center pivot corners have started to show stress in the last week.
Grams said rains in August could still help the region's soybeans.
"Who knows how beans will yield; some fields were hit pretty bad (with hail)," he said. "It just kind of depends on where you farm."
-- The 2024 growing season has been decent but also challenging, according to Brittany Bartak, owner/agronomist of Yield Plus Agronomics located in Bassett, Nebraska. She covers Rock, Brown and Keya Paha counties in north-central Nebraska, and estimates 98% of the crops are irrigated.
June was exceptionally wet, with some areas of Bartak's north-central Nebraska region receiving 7 inches of rain during the third week of June. This caused some major drowned-out areas, she said.
Then July came in with smoke all month, blazing-hot temperatures and little to no rain anywhere in her location. It was literally one extreme to the other. "Which seems to be the norm," she said.
Her region is just starting to see some corn diseases starting to creep up. At the top of the list is some sightings of southern rust. She hasn't had any confirmed samples yet, but it looks exactly like the pictures do, she said.
Bartak said there was hardly any white mold in the region this growing season. This is not surprising, considering all the hot and dry weather in July.
Yields for irrigated corn could end up averaging in that 200- to 220-bushel-per-acre (bpa) area in the three counties (Rock, Brown and Keya Paha) she covers. Some fields could yield a little better and be in the 250- to 260-bpa range, she said.
Beans look respectable and will probably be close to average, she said. Their bean yields have hit a plateau and they rarely yield above this level.
"In general, it's been a blah year, in my opinion," Bartak said. "Growers don't seem excited for harvest, but that might have more to do with prices than yield potential. Plus, everyone is beyond burnt out on irrigating -- it's been non-stop for five to six weeks now."
-- John Oehlerking was afraid the 2024 growing season was shaping up to be dry just like the last few years. The Elmwood, Nebraska, farmer even delayed planting some this spring as the weather was dry and cool.
But then it began to rain as the planting season began in southeast Nebraska's Cass and Otoe counties. And it was plentiful -- something not seen in a few years. Some corn in the area got planted early, and some was planted after the moisture began to fall, he said.
The early season rains carried the corn and soybean crops for the first part of the growing season. Then, in July, the weather turned hot and dry, and moisture was once again at a premium.
In early August, crops growing on the tops of terraces and near the edges of the fields were a lighter shade of green. The effectiveness of farmers' fertility plans was on display in the dry weather, he said.
His home area finally got an inch of rain on Wednesday, Aug. 14. This was an important rain, which will help corn's test weight stay high and will help soybean plants fill pods in August.
Oehlerking said the early planted corn (before the rains) yields might be significantly above average. Corn planted later still looks good but might be more in the average range.
"I think there is going to be a big difference with corn yields here," Oehlerking said.
Soybean yields in his region look fairly good, he said. While there was some dry weather later in the growing season, he estimated bean yields in his region to be closer to average.
Find more about the DTN Yield Estimates here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….
USDA's latest Crop Production report information can be found here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….
Katie Dehlinger can be reached at katie.dehlinger@dtn.com
Follow her on social platform X at @KatieD_DTN
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