DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

OMAHA (DTN) -- For the first time in eight weeks, multiple average retail fertilizer prices showed considerable declines during the second week of September 2024, according to sellers surveyed by DTN.

Prices for seven of the eight major fertilizers were lower compared to last month. In addition, three fertilizers had sizeable price declines. DTN designates a significant move as anything 5% or more.

Potash led the way lower, down 8% from a month ago, with an average price of $464. Both 10-34-0 and UAN32 were 7% less expensive with 10-34-0 having an average price of $596 per ton and UAN32 $351/ton. 10-34-0 was below the $600/ton level for the first since the first week of January 2024. That week the average price was $599/ton.

Four other fertilizers were slightly lower compared to last month. DAP had an average price of $735/ton, MAP $808/ton, urea $489/ton and UAN28 $329/ton.

One fertilizer was slightly more expensive. Anhydrous had an average price of $684/ton, up $6 per ton from last month.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was $0.53/lb.N, anhydrous $0.42/lb.N, UAN28 $0.59/lb.N and UAN32 $0.55/lb.N.

Rabobank recently released its semiannual fertilizer outlook. As one might expect, the outlook is less than positive for nutrient prices.

The company's fertilizer affordability index, which incorporates fertilizer and commodity prices, was 0.03 in July 2024, down from 0.07 in the previous update in May 2024. Right now, the index is considered neutral at 0.00.

For the nitrogen and the potash index, there is some stability, moving slightly lower from 0.02 to -0.02, remaining in the neutral range. However, the affordability of phosphate worsened from May to July 2024. The global phosphate affordability index fell from -0.04 to -0.19.

And there are signals that more drops are coming in fertilizer affordability.

"In the coming months, projections indicate a downward price trend for some commodities," the report stated. "Combined with expected shifts in fertilizer prices, this has the potential to push the affordability index back into negative territory."

DTN wrote in more detail about Rabobank's semiannual fertilizer outlook last week (https://www.dtnpf.com/…).

Prices for all except two fertilizers are lower compared to one year ago. DAP is 4% higher while MAP is 9% higher looking back to last year.

Prices for the remaining six fertilizers are lower. 10-34-0 is 1% lower, anhydrous is 2% less expensive, both potash and UAN28 are 7% lower, UAN32 is 10% lower and urea is 12% lower compared to last year.

DTN gathers fertilizer price bids from agriculture retailers each week to compile the DTN Fertilizer Index. DTN first began reporting data in November 2008.

In addition to national averages, MyDTN subscribers can access the full DTN Fertilizer Index, which includes state averages, here: https://www.mydtn.com/….

A Canadian potash company announced it has entered into an agreement to purchase potash processing equipment. You can read about it here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

Russ Quinn can be reached at Russ.Quinn@dtn.com

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