DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

OMAHA (DTN) -- Average retail prices for most major fertilizers were lower in the fourth week of September 2024, with prices for two fertilizers down significantly, according to sellers surveyed by DTN.

Prices for seven of the eight major fertilizers were lower compared to last month, a trend that has continued for the last few weeks. Prices for two fertilizers were down significantly, which DTN designates as anything 5% or more.

10-34-0 led the way lower, down 7% compared to last month. The starter fertilizer had an average price of $593 per ton. Also substantially lower was potash, which was down 6% from last month with an average price of $457 per ton.

Five other fertilizers were slightly lower compared to last month. DAP had an average price of $738 per ton, MAP $812/ton, urea $485/ton, UAN28 $320/ton and UAN32 $351/ton.

One fertilizer was slightly more expensive than a month ago. Anhydrous had an average price of $684/ton, up $8 per ton from last month.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was $0.53/lb.N, anhydrous $0.42/lb.N, UAN28 $0.57/lb.N and UAN32 $0.55/lb.N.

One of the last times I interviewed Josh Linville, director of fertilizer for StoneX, was just about a year ago for an annual series I write at the end of the year on the fertilizer outlook for the upcoming year. At that time, he shared a map with me showing that 51.1% of global urea exports come from the Middle East/North Africa region.

An expanding military conflict in the Middle East would be bad news for retail fertilizer prices, he said then. He shared that same map Tuesday on social platform X as tensions between Israel and Iran continue to increase. He posted that some reports are saying an Iranian attack on Israel is imminent. Later on Tuesday, Iran attacked Israel with more than 200 missiles, according to media reports.

A potential war between these two countries would not necessarily bring the entire region to war. However, a potential larger military operation is certainly not good news for nutrient prices, considering how much nitrogen fertilizer supplies come from that part of the world.

"One out of every two tons (of global urea exports) around the world comes from this map," he said in his X post.

Just something to keep in mind.

Prices for all but two fertilizers are lower compared to one year ago. 10-34-0 is 3% lower, UAN28 is 9% less expensive, potash is 10% lower, anhydrous is 11% less expensive and both urea and UAN32 are 15% lower compared to last year.

Both DAP and now MAP are 5% higher than last year.

DTN gathers fertilizer price bids from agriculture retailers each week to compile the DTN Fertilizer Index. DTN first began reporting data in November 2008.

In addition to national averages, MyDTN subscribers can access the full DTN Fertilizer Index, which includes state averages, here: https://www.mydtn.com/….

The Foundation for Food and Agriculture Research (FFAR) welcomed eight new members to the Efficient Fertilizer Consortium. You can read about it here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

And, you can catch a discussion about fertilizer prices and trends on a recent Reporter's Notebook video here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

Russ Quinn can be reached at Russ.Quinn@dtn.com

Follow him on social platform X @RussQuinnDTN

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