OMAHA (DTN) -- No doubt the stakes are high on Election Day as a divided country will wait for the ballots to be counted.
Early voting is the trend with 70.3 million votes already cast as of Monday.
Everyone and their pollsters are saying the presidential race is going to be close. Some models suggest just one state's electoral votes could decide whether Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump will win the White House.
The 2000 election between George W. Bush and Al Gore came down to just 537 votes in Florida.
In congressional races in 2022, two races -- one in California and one in Colorado, were each won by fewer than 570 votes and helped determine GOP control of the House.
So, if you aren't among the early birds, don't assume your favorite candidate is in or out just based on yard signs.
Pundits also are all over the place about when the presidential race could be called. President Joe Biden's win in the Electoral College didn't come until Pennsylvania was called on the Saturday after Election Day. In 2016, former President Trump was declared the winner in the early hours of Wednesday morning, about 1:30 a.m. CST.
The Bush-Gore race lasted five weeks until Dec. 12, 2000, when the Supreme Court ruled to end Florida's partial recount and gave Bush Florida's electoral votes. Gore conceded the next day.
Here are six things to watch on election night:
CLOSE SENATE RACES
Every election cycle, Democrats maintain they are close to knocking off a statewide Texas Republican, but it hasn't happened yet. This time, GOP Sen. Ted Cruz is in a battle against Democratic U.S. Rep. Colin Allred. Pollster Ivan Moore, who's from Alaska, maintains Cruz is going to lose and Harris is within striking distance of making Texas a close race on the presidential ticket, though Texas isn't considered that close by national pollsters.
Cook Political Report has the Cruz race in the "leans Republican" column, along with Nebraska Sen. Deb Fischer. Among GOP incumbents, Cruz and Fischer have the tightest races. Their races will likely determine which party holds the Senate next year.
Out west, Montana Sen. Jon Tester, a Democrat, has often said he is the only working farmer in the U.S. Senate. Tester is trying to win his fourth term in office, but he has been trailing Republican businessman Tim Sheehy. Montana is a booming state that has become more conservative due to an influx of new residents. Voters might have concerns about Sheehy, a retired Navy SEAL who has been dogged over how he was wounded after a retired park ranger alleged Sheehy's wound came from a hunting accident, not military service. Trump is popular in Montana so Tester is counting on voters to split their tickets.
See, "Montana, Nebraska, Wisconsin Among Key Battlegrounds Over Control of Senate," https://www.dtnpf.com/…
CONTROL OF HOUSE AT STAKE
Rep. John Duarte, R-Calif., a farmer and freshman on the House Agriculture Committee, won his California district last time by just 564 votes. He's in another close race in the San Joaquin Valley in a rematch of the 2022 race.
Republicans right now control the House by eight seats, 220 to 212, and there are three vacancies. There's also a new open congressional seat in Alabama favored for Democrats. Pollsters show 43 congressional districts with close polling numbers will decide control of the House. That includes 16 members of the House Agriculture Committee, of which five Republicans and four Democrats are in races considered tossups, or they left an open district.
This past weekend's Iowa Poll also suggests two Republican House members in the state are polling behind their challengers, Rep. Zach Nunn, a member of the House Agriculture Committee, and Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks.
See, "16 Close House Ag Committee Races We're Watching," https://www.dtnpf.com/…
MIDWEST CARBON PIPELINES
The eyes of the Midwest ethanol industry will be on South Dakota.
Voters in South Dakota will vote on Referred Law 21 to decide if a state law detailing permit rules for carbon pipelines will remain the law or not.
The vote will either ease or complicate plans for Summit Carbon Solutions, a proposed 2,000-mile pipeline network in Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota and South Dakota. The pipeline would carry carbon dioxide emissions from 57 ethanol plants and sink it into the ground in North Dakota. The plan goes awry if Summit can't get a permit in South Dakota.
Capturing and sinking carbon dioxide is considered one of the best ways for ethanol plants to lower their carbon intensity to qualify for future low-carbon fuel standards as well as using ethanol for Sustainable Aviation Fuel.
RL-21 has drawn a lot of attention in South Dakota from frustrated landowners who oppose the pipeline projects.
See, "Landowners vs. Carbon Pipeline: South Dakota Ballot Measure Sparks Debate," https://www.dtnpf.com/…
DENVER VOTE TO BAN PACKING PLANTS
Voters in Denver will go to the polls to decide on an ordinance that would prohibit the construction, maintenance or use of meatpacking plants in the city limits starting in 2026. There's just one meatpacker in the city, Superior Farms, which processes up to 1,500 lambs a day -- the largest lamb processor in the country, KUNC public radio in Colorado reports. The measure would essentially shut down the facility.
ABORTION/REPRODUCTIVE RIGHTS
Ten states have ballot measures relating to abortion rights -- Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Maryland, Missouri, Nebraska, Nevada, New York and South Dakota. Each one is a little different in language, but they will likely lead to higher turnouts in those states. The most confusing situation is in Nebraska where voters will have two separate initiatives to decide. One (Initiative 434) would prohibit abortions after the first trimester while Initiative 439 would allow abortions up to fetal viability.
MARIJUANA ON THE BALLOT
Four more states on Tuesday will have ballot measures to legalize cannabis use in some form. Florida, North Dakota and South Dakota have votes to legalize recreational marijuana for adults aged 21 and over. Nebraska, much like its complicated votes on abortion, has two separate ballot measures to legalize cannabis for medical use.
Arkansas also had a vote slated to expand medical marijuana, but the state's Supreme Court voted 4-3 that the votes for that measure will not be counted.
Massachusetts also has a ballot measure to allow the use of psychedelic substances -- mushrooms -- in the state.
Chris Clayton can be reached at Chris.Clayton@dtn.com
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