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USDA's November crop estimates tend to add increased accuracy to the U.S. production estimates and 2024 should be no exception. U.S. corn and soybean harvests are both over 90% complete, allowing for a more complete view of field data from which USDA can work to formulate its estimates. The November World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report comes out at 11 a.m. CST on Friday, Nov. 8. It will serve as the second-to-final yield estimates for U.S. crops, as the December WASDE report does not feature supply adjustments to U.S. crops.

CORN

Corn futures enjoyed a decent boost through the second half of October and thus far have managed to recapture just over 50% of value lost from the harvest selloff during the first half of October. Corn harvest is now seen at 91% complete for major producing U.S. states. In October, USDA estimated 2024 U.S. corn production at 15.203 billion bushels (bb), the second-largest production on record behind last fall. This is behind a record estimated yield of 183.8 bushels per acre (bpa). For this Friday's report, the 19 analysts surveyed by Dow Jones expect a slight cut in U.S. corn production on lower harvested acres and a slightly lower, but still record-high, yield. All told, the average analyst production estimate of 15.179 bb will still stand as the second highest on record.

Looking back at WASDE reports since 2004, the eight years when USDA raised production from September to October corresponded with four years of additional increases in the November report and four years of subsequent cuts in the November release. It is worth noting that the years of increases between October and November reports also corresponded with increasingly good crop condition ratings through September and October. In the two instances of declining or steady ratings, production estimates dropped. Crop conditions for this fall held steady from pre-September report levels through the final rating from USDA.

Where things get interesting is factoring in the extremely strong demand for corn that really solidified itself throughout October. Corn export commitments are now running 38% above USDA's estimated pace, and while I don't expect any huge leaps in estimates from USDA, I do believe we will see some sort of acknowledgement of export performance in Friday's figures. Dow Jones' surveyed analysts agree, with the average estimate for 2024-25 ending stocks coming in at 1.921 bb, which would be down 78 million bushels (mb) from the October estimate. As for beginning stocks, I do believe there is room for reduction in 2023-24 carryout, particularly on higher demand for that season. It's probably not enough to significantly move the needle, but it is worth noting, nonetheless.

On the world balance sheet, the Dow Jones survey is calling for a slight reduction in corn ending stocks from 306.5 million metric tons (mmt) to 305.9 mmt. This is partly due to analysts also predicting slightly tighter beginning stocks, down 200,000 metric tons (mt) from October. In mid-October, Brazilian agency Conab released its first estimates of Brazilian production, saying the country would produce 119.7 mmt of corn. USDA is currently estimating Brazilian production at 127 mmt. Although it is likely to be too early to see a significant cut from USDA, this gap in estimates will be worth keeping an eye on, especially as we turn the calendar from 2024 to 2025.

SOYBEANS

USDA estimated 2024 U.S. soybean production in October at a record 4.582 bb, stemming from a record yield of 53.1 bpa. Dow Jones' survey shows analysts are slightly less confident of U.S. production with the average estimate calling for a 0.3-bpa cut in yield and a subsequent production cut to 4.553 bb. Both of these estimates would still stand as records for the U.S. The U.S. soybean crop did experience some late growing season weather stress in the last part of August and September, but it remains to be seen how that translated to potential yield loss. All clues thus far point toward it having minor consequences. USDA did slightly trim good-to-excellent ratings for the crop through the month of September by 2 points total.

Looking at WASDE history, since 2004, USDA has cut production from September to October 10 times (not counting this year). Of those 10 years, USDA has subsequently raised production in November only three times. The instances of production increases also correlated slightly with steady to improving crop conditions through early fall.

The demand picture for soybeans is also strong, with exports now running slightly above USDA's pace after a good October allowed commitments to catch up. According to the Dow Jones survey, analysts expect a slight cut of 15 mb to U.S. ending stocks. Like corn, I also see room for increases in the old-crop 2023-24 demand figures, particularly in regard to soy crush, which would in turn lower the carry-in for 2024-25.

On the world balance sheet, analysts expect soybean ending stocks to decrease slightly from 134.7 mmt in October to 134 mmt in November. In its first season estimates on Oct. 15, Brazilian agency Conab estimated soybean production at 166.1 mmt, below the USDA estimate of 169 mmt but still a record production for Brazil. Weather in South America has been very good recently after a very dry start to the planting season. Soybean planting pace skyrocketed the last two weeks of October and now stands at a normal level.

WHEAT

Friday's report will likely be a quiet one in regard to wheat as, although great attention is being given to winter wheat conditions in the Northern Hemisphere, USDA will not release those balance sheets until May 2025. 2024 U.S. wheat production is likely solidified as of the small grains summary in late September. The demand situation for U.S. wheat has been friendly, with the export book running 19% above 2023. USDA has already taken into account increased export demand for U.S. wheat. And while there is a chance it could increase the figure again in Friday's report, the gap isn't a wildly significant one currently. Dow Jones' survey has analysts calling for U.S. wheat ending stocks to go unchanged in Friday's report at 812 mb, with a reported range of 800-830 mb.

On the world stage, analysts expect slight cuts to world wheat ending stocks from 257.7 mmt in October to 256.8 mmt in November. This estimate is the lowest world ending stocks figure for wheat in nine years if accurate. The trade will also be watching to see how Russia export prospects fare following the mid-October announcement of a price floor for wheat exports. Russia typically accounts for 20%-25% of world wheat exports.

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Join us for DTN's webinar at 12:30 p.m. CST Friday, Nov. 8, as we discuss USDA's new estimates in light of recent market events. Questions are welcome, and registrants will receive a replay link for viewing at their convenience. Register here for Friday's October WASDE report webinar: https://www.dtn.com/….

Rhett Montgomery can be reached at rhett.montgomery@dtn.com

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